Argentina vs Switzerland Prediction

World Cup · Quarter-finals

Post on X

Switzerland

Away

AI call Argentina to win

66%

23%

11%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Argentina vs Switzerland prediction: Sportiko gives Argentina a 66% chance of winning, Switzerland 11% and the draw 23%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%

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Match Report

Argentina reached the World Cup semi-finals after a dramatic 3–1 extra-time victory over Switzerland, though the match proved far more difficult than many anticipated. Alexis Mac Allister gave Argentina the lead after just ten minutes, and they carried that advantage into half-time despite Switzerland controlling possession and generating the greater volume of chances throughout — a pattern reflected in the final stats of 22 shots and an expected goals figure of 1.96 for the Swiss.

Switzerland drew level on 67 minutes through Dan Ndoye, and the contest appeared to be turning before a pivotal moment five minutes later. Breel Embolo, already on a yellow card, received a second booking to leave Switzerland with ten men, fundamentally altering the remainder of the game. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Argentina win at 66%, though it took extra time for that outcome to materialise.

With the numerical advantage, Argentina eventually wore down their opponents. Julián Alvarez restored the lead in the 112th minute, and Lautaro Martínez, who had been cautioned late on, sealed the result in the final minute of extra time to send Argentina through to the last four.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Alexis Mac Allister assist: Lionel Messi

10' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 44'

Breel Embolo Yellow Card

HT 1–0

⚽ 1–1 67'

Dan Ndoye assist: Ricardo Rodríguez

▮ 72'

Breel Embolo Yellow Card

▮ 72'

Breel Embolo Red Card

Nicolás Tagliafico ⇄ Nicolás González

78' ⇄

Rodrigo De Paul ⇄ Lautaro Martínez

85' ⇄

Nahuel Molina ⇄ Gonzalo Montiel

85' ⇄

⇄ 86'

Djibril Sow ⇄ Silvan Widmer

⇄ 86'

Dan Ndoye ⇄ Zeki Amdouni

⇄ 86'

Fabian Rieder ⇄ Miro Muheim

⇄ 90+5'

Ricardo Rodríguez ⇄ Eray Cömert

Enzo Fernández ⇄ Thiago Almada

91' ⇄

⇄ 96'

Denis Zakaria ⇄ Ardon Jashari

Thiago Almada Yellow Card

97' ▮

Lautaro Martínez Yellow Card

98' ▮

Cristian Romero ⇄ Nicolás Otamendi

106' ⇄

Leandro Paredes ⇄ José Manuel López

110' ⇄

Julián Alvarez assist: José Manuel López

112' ⚽ 2–1

José Manuel López Yellow Card

114' ▮

⇄ 115'

Remo Freuler ⇄ Rubén Vargas

Lautaro Martínez

120+1' ⚽ 3–1

FT 3–1

Argentina

Match Stats

Switzerland

59% Ball Possession 41%

1.96 Expected Goals (xG) 0.53

22 Total Shots 11

7 Shots on Goal 5

8 Shots off Goal 3

7 Blocked Shots 3

12 Shots insidebox 5

10 Shots outsidebox 6

8 Corner Kicks 2

4 Offsides 3

14 Fouls 18

3 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 1

4 Goalkeeper Saves 4

680 Total passes 474

603 Passes accurate 399

89% Passes % 84%

0.83 goals_prevented 0.83

Argentina

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Lionel Messi F	8.9	124'	–	1	2	68 (59%)	3
20 Alexis Mac Allister M	7.7	124'	1	–	3	53 (50%)	3
9 Julián Alvarez F	7.7	124'	1	–	2	41 (36%)	2
23 Emiliano Martínez G	7.3	124'	–	–	–	42 (27%)	–
16 Thiago Almada M	7.3	34'	–	–	3	27 (27%)	–
5 Leandro Paredes M	7.3	110'	–	–	–	119 (112%)	1
6 Lisandro Martínez D	7.2	124'	–	–	1	76 (64%)	4
15 Nicolás González F	7.2	46'	–	–	1	28 (27%)	–
13 Cristian Romero D	7.0	105'	–	–	1	43 (41%)	2
22 Lautaro Martínez F	6.9	39'	1	–	1	6 (5%)	–
19 Nicolás Otamendi D	6.9	19'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	1
7 Rodrigo De Paul M	6.7	85'	–	–	–	36 (31%)	–
3 Nicolás Tagliafico D	6.6	78'	–	–	–	22 (18%)	–
24 Enzo Fernández M	6.5	90'	–	–	–	63 (61%)	–
26 Nahuel Molina D	6.3	85'	–	–	1	34 (29%)	1
21 José Manuel López F	6.3	14'	–	1	–	3 (2%)	–
4 Gonzalo Montiel D	6.2	39'	–	–	–	18 (14%)	–

Switzerland

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Granit Xhaka M	7.5	124'	–	–	3	72 (67%)	–
13 Ricardo Rodríguez D	7.3	95'	–	1	–	38 (37%)	2
11 Dan Ndoye M	7.2	86'	1	–	2	21 (13%)	–
1 Gregor Kobel G	6.6	124'	–	–	–	38 (19%)	–
8 Remo Freuler M	6.6	115'	–	–	–	55 (51%)	3
17 Rubén Vargas M	6.5	9'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
4 Nico Elvedi D	6.3	124'	–	–	–	59 (55%)	1
18 Eray Cömert D	6.3	29'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	1
15 Djibril Sow M	6.3	86'	–	–	1	29 (25%)	–
22 Fabian Rieder M	6.3	86'	–	–	–	23 (16%)	1
3 Silvan Widmer D	6.3	38'	–	–	–	7 (4%)	1
6 Denis Zakaria D	6.2	96'	–	–	–	47 (39%)	2
2 Miro Muheim D	6.2	38'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
14 Ardon Jashari M	6.2	28'	–	–	1	5 (4%)	–
23 Zeki Amdouni F	6.2	38'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
5 Manuel Akanji D	6.0	124'	–	–	–	58 (50%)	1
7 Breel Embolo F	5.9	72'	–	–	1	10 (9%)	–

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Confidence Medium (66%)

At a glance

Our lean

Argentina to win

Most likely score

2:0 · 14.1%

Both teams to score

43%

Over 2.5 goals

48%

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Argentina

LWWWW

Switzerland

LDWWW

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match, Argentina faces Switzerland in what promises to be a tactical battle. Argentina boasts a robust attacking lineup, highlighted by their high goals-per-game average, while Switzerland emphasizes defensive solidity, having one of the lowest goals conceded rates in their qualifying campaign. Key players like Lionel Messi for Argentina and Granit Xhaka for Switzerland will be crucial in dictating the pace. Set-pieces could play a significant role, as both teams have shown varying success in capitalizing on them. The outcome will likely hinge on Argentina's ability to break down Switzerland's organized defense.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

66%

45%

Draw

23%

45%

Away

11%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Switzerland goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	9	4	2
1	13	11	3	1
2	14	9	3	1
3	9	6	2
4	4	3	1
5	2	1

↑ Argentina goals · most likely 2–0 (14.1%)

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Players in form

Argentina

L. Messi 8 gls

Switzerland

J. Manzambi 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

23%

Away Win

11%

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS No 43% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

23%

Away Win

11%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

86% Home (No Draw) 14% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

41% Home Win by 2+ 3% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

66% Home Scores More 23% Equal Goals 11% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS No 43% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

17%

27%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.7%	3.7%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%
1	13.2%	10.9%	3.2%	0.7%	0.1%
2	14.1%	9.4%	3.2%	0.7%	0.1%
3	9.1%	6.1%	2.1%	0.5%	0.1%
4	4.5%	3.0%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

32%

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

32%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Argentina	Draw	Switzerland
Argentina	43.7%	3.1%	0.7%
Draw	21.6%	15.2%	4.8%
Switzerland	2.2%	3.0%	5.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

43%

1.5

57%

70%

2.5

30%

88%

3.5

12%

Home Exact Goals

14%

28%

27%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

71%

1.5

29%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

97%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

51%

34%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

69%

0.5

31%

95%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Argentina vs Switzerland

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Argentina — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Jul	A Spain	L	1 - 0
15 Jul	A England	W	1 - 2
12 Jul	H Switzerland	W	3 - 1
07 Jul	H Egypt	W	3 - 2
03 Jul	H Cape Verde Islands	W	3 - 2

Switzerland — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
12 Jul	A Argentina	L	3 - 1
07 Jul	H Colombia	D	0 - 0
03 Jul	H Algeria	W	2 - 0
24 Jun	H Canada	W	2 - 1
18 Jun	H Bosnia & Herzegovina	W	4 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Switzerland

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Murat Yakin

1 Kobel

13 Rodríguez

5 Akanji

4 Elvedi

6 Zakaria

10 Xhaka

8 Freuler

11 Ndoye

22 Rieder

15 Sow

7 Embolo

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Gregor Kobel	G
6	Denis Zakaria	D
4	Nico Elvedi	D
5	Manuel Akanji	D
13	Ricardo Rodríguez	D
8	Remo Freuler	M
10	Granit Xhaka	M
15	Djibril Sow	M
22	Fabian Rieder	M
11	Dan Ndoye	M
7	Breel Embolo	F

Substitutes

2	Miro Muheim	D
3	Silvan Widmer	D
23	Zeki Amdouni	F
18	Eray Cömert	D
14	Ardon Jashari	M
12	Yvon Mvogo	G
21	Marvin Keller	G
24	Aurèle Amenda	D
25	Luca Jaquez	D
20	Michel Aebischer	M
16	Christian Fassnacht	M
17	Rubén Vargas	M
19	Noah Okafor	F
26	Cédric Itten	F

Argentina

Formation: 4-1-3-2 Coach: Lionel Scaloni

23 Martínez

3 Tagliafico

6 Martínez

13 Romero

26 Molina

5 Paredes

20 Allister

24 Fernández

7 Paul

9 Alvarez

10 Messi

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Emiliano Martínez	G
26	Nahuel Molina	D
13	Cristian Romero	D
6	Lisandro Martínez	D
3	Nicolás Tagliafico	D
5	Leandro Paredes	M
7	Rodrigo De Paul	M
24	Enzo Fernández	M
20	Alexis Mac Allister	M
10	Lionel Messi	F
9	Julián Alvarez	F

Substitutes

15	Nicolás González	F
4	Gonzalo Montiel	D
22	Lautaro Martínez	F
16	Thiago Almada	M
19	Nicolás Otamendi	D
21	José Manuel López	F
1	Juan Musso	G
12	Gerónimo Rulli	G
2	Marcos Senesi	D
25	Facundo Medina	D
8	Valentín Barco	M
11	Giovani Lo Celso	M
14	Exequiel Palacios	M
17	Giuliano Simeone	F
18	Nico Paz	F