Norway vs England Prediction

World Cup · Quarter-finals

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England

Away

AI call Difficult England win or draw

19%

26%

54%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Norway vs England prediction: Sportiko gives Norway a 19% chance of winning, England 54% and the draw 26%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Match Report

England booked their place in the World Cup semi-finals with a hard-fought 2–1 victory over Norway in a quarter-final that required a late winner to settle. Andreas Schjelderup gave the hosts the lead on 36 minutes, but Jude Bellingham levelled just before half-time to restore parity heading into the break. Norway had a goal disallowed through VAR on 55 minutes for a foul by Torbjørn Heggem, a pivotal moment that denied them the chance to retake the lead.

The match remained level deep into stoppage time until Bellingham struck again in the 93rd minute to send England through, completing a composed individual display from the midfielder. Our pre-match AI model had rated an England win as the most likely outcome at 54%, a call that proved correct. Despite Norway enjoying the better of the chances by expected goals — 1.09 to 0.77 — England's clinical finishing proved the difference.

The game stretched into extra time in terms of substitutions, with Erling Haaland introduced in the 106th minute unable to change the outcome for Norway. England advance to the last four.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Andreas Schjelderup assist: Martin Ødegaard

36' ⚽ 1–0

⚽ 1–1 45+2'

Jude Bellingham assist: Anthony Gordon

HT 1–1

⇄ 46'

Noni Madueke ⇄ Bukayo Saka

⇄ 46'

Declan Rice ⇄ Eberechi Eze

Torbjørn Heggem Goal Disallowed - Foul

55' 🖵

Julian Ryerson ⇄ Fredrik Aursnes

60' ⇄

Alexander Sørloth ⇄ Oscar Bobb

68' ⇄

Andreas Schjelderup ⇄ Antonio Nusa

68' ⇄

⇄ 71'

Anthony Gordon ⇄ Reece James

⇄ 86'

Nico O'Reilly ⇄ Djed Spence

⇄ 89'

Ezri Konsa ⇄ Morgan Rogers

David Møller Wolfe ⇄ Marcus Pedersen

90' ⇄

Torbjørn Heggem ⇄ Leo Østigård

91' ⇄

⚽ 1–2 93'

Jude Bellingham

Erling Haaland ⇄ Jørgen Strand Larsen

106' ⇄

⇄ 111'

Jude Bellingham ⇄ Dan Burn

Kristoffer Ajer Yellow Card

117' ▮

FT 1–2

Norway

Match Stats

England

48% Ball Possession 52%

0.77 Expected Goals (xG) 1.09

13 Total Shots 14

4 Shots on Goal 8

6 Shots off Goal 3

3 Blocked Shots 3

10 Shots insidebox 8

3 Shots outsidebox 6

7 Corner Kicks 4

1 Offsides 5

10 Fouls 8

1 Yellow Cards 0

Red Cards

6 Goalkeeper Saves 3

576 Total passes 626

492 Passes accurate 567

85% Passes % 91%

-0.61 goals_prevented -0.61

Norway

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Ørjan Nyland G	8.2	120'	–	–	–	43 (24%)	–
21 Andreas Schjelderup F	8.2	68'	1	–	1	20 (14%)	6
14 Fredrik Aursnes M	7.3	60'	–	–	1	45 (40%)	2
26 Julian Ryerson D	7.2	60'	–	–	–	12 (11%)	4
10 Martin Ødegaard M	6.9	120'	–	1	1	93 (80%)	–
8 Sander Berge M	6.9	120'	–	–	–	107 (102%)	–
22 Oscar Bobb M	6.7	52'	–	–	1	20 (20%)	2
5 David Møller Wolfe D	6.5	89'	–	–	–	24 (18%)	–
6 Patrick Berg M	6.5	120'	–	–	1	35 (34%)	3
11 Jørgen Strand Larsen F	6.5	15'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
3 Kristoffer Ajer D	6.3	120'	–	–	1	55 (47%)	2
17 Torbjørn Heggem D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	42 (39%)	2
7 Alexander Sørloth F	6.3	68'	–	–	1	21 (17%)	–
9 Erling Haaland F	6.3	105'	–	–	2	13 (5%)	1
20 Antonio Nusa M	6.3	52'	–	–	1	14 (10%)	1
4 Leo Østigård D	6.3	30'	–	–	–	15 (15%)	–
16 Marcus Pedersen D	6.2	31'	–	–	–	14 (14%)	1

England

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Jude Bellingham M	8.5	111'	2	–	4	41 (34%)	1
25 Djed Spence D	7.9	34'	–	–	1	14 (12%)	2
24 Reece James D	7.2	49'	–	–	–	30 (27%)	2
3 Nico O'Reilly D	7.2	86'	–	–	–	38 (36%)	1
7 Bukayo Saka F	7.2	75'	–	–	2	19 (15%)	3
2 Ezri Konsa D	7.0	89'	–	–	–	53 (52%)	1
5 John Stones D	7.0	120'	–	–	–	83 (80%)	–
8 Elliot Anderson M	7.0	120'	–	–	–	93 (87%)	2
4 Declan Rice M	6.9	45'	–	–	–	47 (45%)	–
15 Dan Burn D	6.9	9'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
21 Eberechi Eze M	6.7	75'	–	–	–	16 (14%)	–
18 Anthony Gordon M	6.6	71'	–	1	–	28 (23%)	1
1 Jordan Pickford G	6.5	120'	–	–	–	27 (18%)	–
20 Noni Madueke M	6.3	45'	–	–	–	16 (16%)	1
6 Marc Guéhi D	6.3	120'	–	–	–	86 (79%)	–
17 Morgan Rogers M	6.3	31'	–	–	1	13 (13%)	–
9 Harry Kane F	6.2	120'	–	–	3	21 (15%)	1

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Confidence Medium (54%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult England win or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.7%

Both teams to score

53%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

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Norway

LWWLW

England

WLWWW

Match summary

In this World Cup match, Norway faces England in what promises to be a competitive encounter. England, known for their strong attacking options, will look to exploit Norway's defensive vulnerabilities. Conversely, Norway's tactical discipline and counter-attacking prowess could pose significant challenges for the English backline. Both teams have shown resilience in prior matches, making this clash a potentially tight affair. Key players from each side will likely determine the outcome, emphasizing the importance of individual performances in high-stakes situations.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

19%

10%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

54%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

England goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	10	10	6	3	1
1	5	13	10	6	3	1
2	3	5	5	3	1
3	1	2	2	1
4
5

↑ Norway goals · most likely 1–1 (12.7%)

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Players in form

Norway

E. Haaland 7 gls

England

J. Bellingham 7 gls

H. Kane 6 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

54%

Draw

26%

Home Win

19%

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS Yes 47% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

71%

3.5

29%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

54%

Draw

26%

Home Win

19%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

74% Away (No Draw) 26% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

31% Away Win by 2+ 7% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

54% Away Scores More 26% Equal Goals 19% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

71%

3.5

29%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS Yes 47% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.9%	10.0%	10.1%	6.0%	2.6%
1	4.9%	12.7%	9.9%	5.9%	2.6%
2	3.1%	5.5%	4.9%	2.9%	1.3%
3	1.0%	1.8%	1.6%	0.9%	0.4%
4	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

54%

1.5

46%

80%

2.5

20%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Norway	Draw	England
Norway	10.9%	4.1%	2.6%
Draw	7.9%	16.4%	18.7%
England	1.3%	4.0%	34.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

74%

1.5

26%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

38%

37%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

93%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

48%

1.5

52%

75%

2.5

25%

90%

3.5

10%

Away Exact Goals

17%

30%

27%

16%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

74%

1.5

26%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Norway vs England

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Norway — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
11 Jul	H England	L	1 - 2
05 Jul	A Brazil	W	1 - 2
30 Jun	A Ivory Coast	W	1 - 2
26 Jun	H France	L	1 - 4
23 Jun	H Senegal	W	3 - 2

England — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Jul	A France	W	4 - 6
15 Jul	H Argentina	L	1 - 2
11 Jul	A Norway	W	1 - 2
06 Jul	A Mexico	W	2 - 3
01 Jul	H Congo DR	W	2 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

England

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Thomas Tuchel

1 Pickford

3 O'Reilly

6 Guéhi

5 Stones

2 Konsa

8 Anderson

4 Rice

18 Gordon

10 Bellingham

20 Madueke

9 Kane

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Jordan Pickford	G
2	Ezri Konsa	D
5	John Stones	D
6	Marc Guéhi	D
3	Nico O'Reilly	D
4	Declan Rice	M
8	Elliot Anderson	M
20	Noni Madueke	M
10	Jude Bellingham	M
18	Anthony Gordon	M
9	Harry Kane	F

Substitutes

21	Eberechi Eze	M
7	Bukayo Saka	F
24	Reece James	D
25	Djed Spence	D
17	Morgan Rogers	M
15	Dan Burn	D
13	Dean Henderson	G
23	James Trafford	G
12	Trevoh Chalobah	D
14	Jordan Henderson	M
16	Kobbie Mainoo	M
11	Marcus Rashford	F
19	Ollie Watkins	F
22	Ivan Toney	F

Norway

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Stale Solbakken

1 Nyland

5 Wolfe

17 Heggem

3 Ajer

26 Ryerson

6 Berg

8 Berge

10 Ødegaard

21 Schjelderup

9 Haaland

7 Sørloth

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Ørjan Nyland	G
26	Julian Ryerson	D
3	Kristoffer Ajer	D
17	Torbjørn Heggem	D
5	David Møller Wolfe	D
10	Martin Ødegaard	M
8	Sander Berge	M
6	Patrick Berg	M
7	Alexander Sørloth	F
9	Erling Haaland	F
21	Andreas Schjelderup	F

Substitutes

14	Fredrik Aursnes	M
22	Oscar Bobb	M
20	Antonio Nusa	M
16	Marcus Pedersen	D
4	Leo Østigård	D
11	Jørgen Strand Larsen	F
12	Sander Tangvik	G
13	Egil Selvik	G
15	Fredrik André Bjørkan	D
24	Sondre Langås	D
25	Henrik Sælebakke Falchener	D
2	Morten Thorsby	M
18	Kristian Thorstvedt	M
19	Thelo Aasgaard	M
23	Jens Petter Hauge	M