France vs Morocco Prediction

World Cup · Quarter-finals

Post on X

Morocco

Away

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

AI call Difficult France win or draw

57%

27%

17%

Home Win Draw Away Win

France vs Morocco prediction: Sportiko gives France a 57% chance of winning, Morocco 17% and the draw 27%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Under 3.5 Goals 75%
2nd Half Over 0.5 74%

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Match Report

France progressed to the World Cup semi-finals with a commanding 2–0 victory over Morocco, despite a goalless first half that belied the gulf in quality that would eventually emerge. Kylian Mbappé spurned an early opportunity from the penalty spot in the 28th minute, but the deadlock was broken shortly after the hour mark when he made amends with a well-taken finish on 60 minutes.

The match was effectively settled just six minutes later as Ousmane Dembélé added a second in the 62nd minute, punishing a Morocco side that struggled to create meaningful chances throughout. The underlying numbers told a stark story — France generated 3.10 expected goals to Morocco's 0.13, with the Atlas Lions managing just one shot on target across the entire 90 minutes despite edging possession at 52%. Our pre-match AI model had rated a France win as the most likely outcome at 57%, a call that proved well-founded.

Morocco introduced several attacking substitutes in search of a route back into the game, but France's defensive solidity held firm. Mbappé was withdrawn on 77 minutes having done the decisive damage, as Les Bleus booked their place in the last four.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Kylian Mbappé Missed Penalty

28' ✗

HT 0–0

Kylian Mbappé assist: Désiré Doué

60' ⚽ 1–0

⇄ 62'

Ayyoub Bouaddi ⇄ Sofyan Amrabat

⇄ 62'

Bilal El Khannouss ⇄ Soufiane Rahimi

▮ 63'

Issa Diop Yellow Card

Ousmane Dembélé assist: Kylian Mbappé

66' ⚽ 2–0

Manu Koné ⇄ Warren Zaïre-Emery

71' ⇄

⇄ 74'

Brahim Díaz ⇄ Gessime Yassine

⇄ 74'

Anass Salah-Eddine ⇄ Zakaria El Ouahdi

Kylian Mbappé ⇄ Jean-Philippe Mateta

77' ⇄

Désiré Doué ⇄ Bradley Barcola

77' ⇄

⇄ 85'

Chemsdine Talbi ⇄ Amine Sbai

Jules Koundé ⇄ Malo Gusto

87' ⇄

FT 2–0

France

Match Stats

Morocco

48% Ball Possession 52%

3.10 Expected Goals (xG) 0.13

21 Total Shots 5

8 Shots on Goal 1

8 Shots off Goal 3

5 Blocked Shots 1

12 Shots insidebox 1

9 Shots outsidebox 4

5 Corner Kicks 5

Offsides

10 Fouls 12

0 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 6

481 Total passes 521

429 Passes accurate 449

89% Passes % 86%

0.47 goals_prevented 0.47

France

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
7 Ousmane Dembélé M	8.9	95'	1	–	3	36 (27%)	–
10 Kylian Mbappé F	7.9	77'	1	1	4	31 (26%)	–
11 Michael Olise M	7.5	95'	–	–	1	49 (40%)	2
4 Dayot Upamecano D	7.2	95'	–	–	1	62 (59%)	3
14 Adrien Rabiot M	7.2	95'	–	–	1	48 (45%)	1
20 Désiré Doué M	7.2	77'	–	1	2	39 (32%)	2
6 Manu Koné M	7.2	71'	–	–	–	38 (35%)	1
5 Jules Koundé D	7.0	87'	–	–	–	31 (31%)	–
17 William Saliba D	6.9	95'	–	–	–	60 (57%)	–
3 Lucas Digne D	6.9	95'	–	–	1	46 (44%)	1
12 Bradley Barcola F	6.9	18'	–	–	1	6 (5%)	–
2 Malo Gusto D	6.7	8'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	1
18 Warren Zaïre-Emery M	6.7	24'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	–
16 Mike Maignan G	6.6	95'	–	–	–	17 (13%)	–
22 Jean-Philippe Mateta F	6.3	18'	–	–	2	1	–

Morocco

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Bono G	7.6	95'	–	–	–	34 (22%)	–
8 Azzedine Ounahi M	6.7	95'	–	–	1	70 (60%)	2
13 Zakaria El Ouahdi D	6.7	21'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	–
24 Neil El Aynaoui M	6.6	95'	–	–	1	57 (54%)	3
23 Bilal El Khannouss F	6.6	62'	–	–	–	26 (20%)	3
4 Sofyan Amrabat M	6.6	33'	–	–	–	27 (24%)	1
14 Issa Diop D	6.5	95'	–	–	–	50 (44%)	1
10 Brahim Díaz M	6.5	74'	–	–	–	26 (18%)	1
26 Anass Salah-Eddine D	6.5	74'	–	–	–	39 (34%)	3
17 Amine Sbai F	6.5	10'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
2 Achraf Hakimi D	6.3	95'	–	–	1	57 (49%)	1
16 Gessime Yassine F	6.3	21'	–	–	1	8 (7%)	–
9 Soufiane Rahimi F	6.3	33'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
6 Ayyoub Bouaddi M	6.2	62'	–	–	–	40 (35%)	1
7 Chemsdine Talbi M	6.2	85'	–	–	–	20 (18%)	–
3 Noussair Mazraoui D	6.0	95'	–	–	–	52 (51%)	1

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Confidence Medium (57%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult France win or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.6%

Both teams to score

48%

Over 2.5 goals

47%

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France

LLWWW

Morocco

LWDWW

Match summary

In this World Cup matchup, France enters with a strong offensive record, having scored 14 goals in their last five matches, showcasing their attacking prowess led by stars like Kylian Mbappé. Morocco, on the other hand, has demonstrated solid defensive capabilities, conceding only 2 goals in their previous five games, highlighting their resilience and tactical organization. The outcome will likely hinge on France's ability to break down Morocco's defense, while Morocco will aim to exploit counter-attacking opportunities. Both teams have shown strong form, making this a compelling encounter as they vie for a spot in the tournament's later stages.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

57%

45%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

17%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Morocco goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	9	5	3	1
1	12	13	5	1
2	12	10	4	1
3	7	6	2	1
4	3	2	1
5	1	1

↑ France goals · most likely 1–1 (12.6%)

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Players in form

France

Kylian Mbappé 10 gls

O. Dembélé 6 gls

B. Barcola 3 gls

Morocco

I. Saibari 3 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

27%

Away Win

17%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

27%

Away Win

17%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

77% Home (No Draw) 23% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

33% Home Win by 2+ 6% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

57% Home Scores More 27% Equal Goals 17% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

17%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.1%	5.0%	2.7%	0.8%	0.2%
1	11.9%	12.6%	4.7%	1.3%	0.3%
2	11.6%	9.7%	4.1%	1.1%	0.2%
3	6.7%	5.6%	2.4%	0.7%	0.1%
4	2.9%	2.5%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

33%

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

57%

1.5

43%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

32%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	France	Draw	Morocco
France	36.2%	3.7%	1.0%
Draw	19.8%	17.0%	6.9%
Morocco	2.4%	3.8%	9.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

49%

1.5

51%

75%

2.5

25%

91%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

18%

31%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

43%

36%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: France vs Morocco

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

France — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Jul	H England	L	4 - 6
14 Jul	H Spain	L	0 - 2
09 Jul	H Morocco	W	2 - 0
04 Jul	A Paraguay	W	0 - 1
30 Jun	H Sweden	W	3 - 0

Morocco — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
09 Jul	A France	L	2 - 0
04 Jul	A Canada	W	0 - 3
30 Jun	A Netherlands	D	1 - 1
24 Jun	H Haiti	W	4 - 2
19 Jun	A Scotland	W	0 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

France

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Didier Deschamps

16 Maignan

3 Digne

17 Saliba

4 Upamecano

5 Koundé

14 Rabiot

6 Koné

20 Doué

11 Olise

7 Dembélé

10 Mbappé

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
16	Mike Maignan	G
5	Jules Koundé	D
4	Dayot Upamecano	D
17	William Saliba	D
3	Lucas Digne	D
6	Manu Koné	M
14	Adrien Rabiot	M
7	Ousmane Dembélé	M
11	Michael Olise	M
20	Désiré Doué	M
10	Kylian Mbappé	F

Substitutes

1	Brice Samba	G
23	Robin Risser	G
15	Ibrahima Konaté	D
21	Lucas Hernández	D
2	Malo Gusto	D
19	Theo Hernández	D
26	Maxence Lacroix	D
8	Aurélien Tchouaméni	M
18	Warren Zaïre-Emery	M
24	Rayan Cherki	M
13	N'Golo Kanté	M
25	Maghnes Akliouche	M
9	Marcus Thuram	F
22	Jean-Philippe Mateta	F
12	Bradley Barcola	F

Morocco

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Mohamed Ouahbi

1 Bounou

26 Salah-Eddine

3 Mazraoui

14 Diop

2 Hakimi

24 Aynaoui

6 Bouaddi

7 Talbi

8 Ounahi

10 Díaz

23 Khannouss

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Yassine Bounou	G
2	Achraf Hakimi	D
14	Issa Diop	D
3	Noussair Mazraoui	D
26	Anass Salah-Eddine	D
6	Ayyoub Bouaddi	M
24	Neil El Aynaoui	M
10	Brahim Díaz	M
8	Azzedine Ounahi	M
7	Chemsdine Talbi	M
23	Bilal El Khannouss	F

Substitutes

4	Sofyan Amrabat	M
9	Soufiane Rahimi	F
12	Munir El Kajoui	G
22	Ahmed Reda Tagnaouti	G
5	Marwane Saadane	D
13	Zakaria El Ouahdi	D
18	Chadi Riad	D
25	Redouane Halhal	D
19	Youssef Belammari	D
17	Amine Sbai	F
16	Gessime Yassine	F
15	Samir El Mourabet	M
11	Ismael Saibari	M
20	Ayoub El Kaabi	F
21	Ayoube Amaimouni Echghouyab	F