Argentina vs Egypt Prediction

World Cup · Round of 16

Post on X

Egypt

Away

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia

AI call Argentina to win

81%

16%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Argentina vs Egypt prediction: Sportiko gives Argentina a 81% chance of winning, Egypt 3% and the draw 16%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
Home/Draw & Over 1.5 71%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%

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Match Report

Argentina came from behind to defeat Egypt 3–2 in a dramatic World Cup Round of 16 clash. Yasser Ibrahim gave Egypt a shock lead on 15 minutes, and Argentina's task grew harder when Lionel Messi missed a penalty six minutes later. Egypt held that advantage into half-time and looked set to extend it when Mostafa Ziko had a goal disallowed for a foul via VAR on 58 minutes, before the same player put Egypt 2–0 ahead on 67 minutes following a second-half substitution reshuffle.

Argentina's response was relentless. Cristian Romero pulled one back on 79 minutes, Messi levelled on 83, and Enzo Fernández completed the turnaround with a goal deep into stoppage time to seal a 3–2 victory. The final minutes descended into ill-temper, with three Egyptian players booked in the closing stages.

Argentina's dominance was reflected throughout — 64% possession, 19 total shots, and an expected goals figure of 2.90 compared to Egypt's 0.97. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Argentina win at 81%, a call that proved correct despite the turbulent path to the final whistle.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 15'

Yasser Ibrahim assist: Marwan Attia

Lionel Messi Missed Penalty

21' ✗

HT 0–1

⇄ 46'

Emam Ashour ⇄ Hamdy Fathy

🖵 58'

Mostafa Ziko Goal Disallowed - Foul

Nicolás Tagliafico ⇄ Nicolás González

66' ⇄

Rodrigo De Paul ⇄ Lautaro Martínez

66' ⇄

⚽ 0–2 67'

Mostafa Ziko assist: Haissem Hassan

Nahuel Molina ⇄ Gonzalo Montiel

73' ⇄

⇄ 73'

Haissem Hassan ⇄ Mahmoud Trézéguet

Cristian Romero assist: Lionel Messi

79' ⚽ 1–2

⇄ 80'

Mostafa Ziko ⇄ Omar Marmoush

Lionel Messi assist: Gonzalo Montiel

83' ⚽ 2–2

Enzo Fernández assist: Lautaro Martínez

90+2' ⚽ 3–2

▮ 90+3'

Mostafa Shobeir Yellow Card

▮ 90+4'

Hamdy Fathy Yellow Card

Cristian Romero ⇄ Nicolás Otamendi

90+5' ⇄

Julián Alvarez ⇄ Facundo Medina

90+5' ⇄

⇄ 90+6'

Mohanad Lasheen ⇄ Zizo

▮ 90+8'

Marwan Attia Yellow Card

▮ 90+9'

Yellow Card

FT 3–2

Argentina

Match Stats

Egypt

64% Ball Possession 36%

2.90 Expected Goals (xG) 0.97

19 Total Shots 5

7 Shots on Goal 2

8 Shots off Goal 3

4 Blocked Shots 1

11 Shots insidebox 4

8 Shots outsidebox 1

6 Corner Kicks 1

3 Offsides 0

13 Fouls 11

0 Yellow Cards 3

Red Cards

0 Goalkeeper Saves 4

602 Total passes 348

540 Passes accurate 289

90% Passes % 83%

-0.28 goals_prevented -0.28

Argentina

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Lionel Messi F	9.0	100'	1	1	4	51 (42%)	1
5 Leandro Paredes M	8.2	100'	–	–	1	118 (114%)	3
13 Cristian Romero D	7.9	95'	1	–	1	64 (59%)	3
24 Enzo Fernández M	7.9	100'	1	–	1	79 (74%)	1
22 Lautaro Martínez F	7.3	34'	–	1	2	3	–
4 Gonzalo Montiel D	6.9	27'	–	1	–	14 (13%)	–
6 Lisandro Martínez D	6.9	100'	–	–	1	53 (50%)	4
9 Julián Alvarez F	6.9	95'	–	–	2	37 (32%)	1
7 Rodrigo De Paul M	6.6	66'	–	–	1	51 (45%)	1
15 Nicolás González F	6.6	34'	–	–	–	8 (8%)	–
23 Emiliano Martínez G	6.3	100'	–	–	–	19 (13%)	–
20 Alexis Mac Allister M	6.3	100'	–	–	2	40 (35%)	3
3 Nicolás Tagliafico D	6.3	66'	–	–	–	30 (24%)	–
26 Nahuel Molina D	6.3	73'	–	–	–	31 (28%)	3
25 Facundo Medina D	—	5'	–	–	–	–	–
19 Nicolás Otamendi D	—	5'	–	–	–	–	–

Egypt

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
11 Mostafa Ziko F	7.7	80'	1	–	1	12 (9%)	1
23 Mostafa Shobeir G	7.2	100'	–	–	–	27 (21%)	–
2 Yasser Ibrahim D	7.2	100'	1	–	1	34 (28%)	–
5 Rami Rabia D	6.9	100'	–	–	–	34 (29%)	4
14 Hamdy Fathy M	6.7	55'	–	–	–	18 (16%)	4
17 Mohanad Lasheen M	6.7	96'	–	–	–	34 (29%)	3
10 Mohamed Salah F	6.7	100'	–	–	–	22 (19%)	–
22 Omar Marmoush F	6.7	20'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	–
12 Haissem Hassan M	6.6	73'	–	1	–	13 (11%)	1
7 Mahmoud Trézéguet F	6.5	27'	–	–	2	3 (3%)	–
19 Marwan Attia M	6.3	100'	–	1	–	48 (39%)	2
15 Karim Hafez D	6.3	100'	–	–	1	40 (35%)	–
8 Emam Ashour M	6.2	45'	–	–	–	23 (18%)	–
3 Mohamed Hany D	5.6	100'	–	–	–	30 (26%)	–
25 Zizo F	—	4'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–

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Confidence High (81%)

At a glance

Our lean

Argentina to win

Most likely score

2:0 · 20.3%

Both teams to score

24%

Over 2.5 goals

46%

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Argentina

LWWWW

Egypt

LDDWD

Match summary

Argentina faces Egypt in a critical World Cup match, both teams aiming to secure a strong position in the tournament. Argentina boasts a potent attack, led by Lionel Messi, who remains a key player with significant contributions in goals and assists. In contrast, Egypt relies heavily on Mohamed Salah, whose pace and skill can exploit defensive weaknesses. Historically, Argentina's experience in international competitions gives them an edge; however, Egypt's defensive organization and counter-attacking strategy could pose challenges. This matchup promises to be competitive, with tactical discipline likely playing a pivotal role.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

81%

45%

Draw

16%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Egypt goals →

	0	1	2
0	9	2
1	17	6	1
2	20	6	1
3	15	5	1
4	9	3
5	4	1

↑ Argentina goals · most likely 2–0 (20.3%)

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Players in form

Argentina

L. Messi 8 gls

Egypt

No scorer data.

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

81%

Draw

16%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

28%

1.5

72%

54%

2.5

46%

77%

3.5

23%

91%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

81%

Draw

16%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

96% Home (No Draw) 4% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

57% Home Win by 2+ 0% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

81% Home Scores More 16% Equal Goals 3% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

28%

1.5

72%

54%

2.5

46%

77%

3.5

23%

91%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

19%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

51% Even Total Goals 49% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.7%	1.7%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
1	17.3%	6.1%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%
2	20.3%	6.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	15.3%	4.6%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
4	8.6%	2.6%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

32%

35%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

58%

1.5

42%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

33%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Argentina	Draw	Egypt
Argentina	56.6%	1.3%	0.1%
Draw	24.4%	11.6%	1.5%
Egypt	1.4%	1.5%	1.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

35%

1.5

65%

62%

2.5

38%

83%

3.5

17%

Home Exact Goals

11%

24%

27%

21%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

65%

1.5

35%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Argentina vs Egypt

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Argentina — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Jul	A Spain	L	1 - 0
15 Jul	A England	W	1 - 2
12 Jul	H Switzerland	W	3 - 1
07 Jul	H Egypt	W	3 - 2
03 Jul	H Cape Verde Islands	W	3 - 2

Egypt — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Jul	A Argentina	L	3 - 2
03 Jul	A Australia	D	1 - 1
27 Jun	H Iran	D	1 - 1
22 Jun	A New Zealand	W	1 - 3
15 Jun	A Belgium	D	1 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Argentina

Formation: 4-1-3-2 Coach: Lionel Scaloni

23 Martínez

3 Tagliafico

6 Martínez

13 Romero

26 Molina

5 Paredes

24 Fernández

20 Allister

7 Paul

9 Alvarez

10 Messi

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Emiliano Martínez	G
26	Nahuel Molina	D
13	Cristian Romero	D
6	Lisandro Martínez	D
3	Nicolás Tagliafico	D
5	Leandro Paredes	M
7	Rodrigo De Paul	M
20	Alexis Mac Allister	M
24	Enzo Fernández	M
10	Lionel Messi	F
9	Julián Alvarez	F

Substitutes

15	Nicolás González	F
22	Lautaro Martínez	F
12	Gerónimo Rulli	G
1	Juan Musso	G
2	Marcos Senesi	D
4	Gonzalo Montiel	D
19	Nicolás Otamendi	D
25	Facundo Medina	D
8	Valentín Barco	M
11	Giovani Lo Celso	M
14	Exequiel Palacios	M
16	Thiago Almada	M
17	Giuliano Simeone	F
18	Nico Paz	F
21	José Manuel López	F

Egypt

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Hossam Hassan

23 Shobeir

15 Hafez

5 Rabia

2 Ibrahim

3 Hany

8 Ashour

19 Attia

17 Lasheen

12 Hassan

11 Ziko

10 Salah

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Mostafa Shobeir	G
3	Mohamed Hany	D
2	Yasser Ibrahim	D
5	Rami Rabia	D
15	Karim Hafez	D
12	Haissem Hassan	M
17	Mohanad Lasheen	M
19	Marwan Attia	M
8	Emam Ashour	M
10	Mohamed Salah	F
11	Mostafa Ziko	F

Substitutes

14	Hamdy Fathy	M
1	Mohamed El-Shenawy	G
26	Mohamed Alaa	G
16	Mahdi Soliman	G
24	Tarek Alaa	D
4	Hossam Abdelmaguid	D
25	Zizo	F
20	Ibrahim Adel	F
7	Mahmoud Trézéguet	F
21	Mahmoud Saber	M
18	Nabil Donga	M
22	Omar Marmoush	F
9	Hamza Abdelkarim	F