Gnistan vs Mariehamn Prediction

Veikkausliiga · Regular Season - 15

Post on X

Mariehamn

Away

Mustapekka Areena, Helsinki

AI call Gnistan to win

83%

14%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Gnistan vs Mariehamn prediction: Sportiko gives Gnistan a 83% chance of winning, Mariehamn 3% and the draw 14%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5 74%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Home 2H Over 0.5 73%
1st Half Over 0.5 70%

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Timeline

6' ⚽ 1–0

Missed Penalty

23' ✗

⇄ 26'

⇄ A. Soiniemi

HT 1–0

46' ⇄

⇄ 46'

51' ⚽ 2–0

⚽ 2–1 53'

A. Stroud assist: A. Larsson

⇄ 65'

A. Larsson ⇄ W. Nuñez

71' ⚽ 3–1

71' ⇄

77' ⇄

⚽ 3–2 79'

W. Nuñez

80' ⇄

⇄ 81'

A. Stroud ⇄ L. Andersson

⇄ 81'

J. van der Heyden

▮ 90+1'

T. Koivisto Yellow Card

90+4' ⚽ 4–2

FT 4–2

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Confidence High (83%)

At a glance

Our lean

Gnistan to win

Most likely score

2:0 · 20.1%

Both teams to score

24%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

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Gnistan

DWDDW

Mariehamn

LWLWW

Match summary

In the upcoming Veikkausliiga clash, Gnistan will face Mariehamn at their home ground. Gnistan currently sits in a mid-table position, showcasing a balanced attack with an average of 1.5 goals per match, while their defense has conceded an average of 1.2 goals. On the other hand, Mariehamn struggles in the league, with a lower scoring rate of 1.0 goals per match and a defense that concedes about 1.6 goals. Given Gnistan's superior attacking statistics, they are likely to capitalize on defensive weaknesses in the Mariehamn side. This match could be pivotal for both teams as they aim to secure valuable points in the league.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Mariehamn goals →

	0	1	2
0	8	1
1	16	6	1
2	20	6	1
3	16	5	1
4	10	3
5	5	1

↑ Gnistan goals · most likely 2–0 (20.1%)

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Players in form

Gnistan

A. Akinyemi 3 gls

Mariehamn

No scorer data.

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Match Result

Home Win

83%

Draw

14%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

25%

1.5

75%

51%

2.5

49%

74%

3.5

26%

89%

4.5

11%

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

83%

Draw

14%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

97% Home (No Draw) 3% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

60% Home Win by 2+ 0% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

83% Home Scores More 14% Equal Goals 3% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

25%

1.5

75%

51%

2.5

49%

74%

3.5

26%

89%

4.5

11%

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

17%

26%

23%

16%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

51% Even Total Goals 49% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.6%	1.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
1	16.0%	5.6%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%
2	20.1%	6.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	16.1%	4.8%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
4	9.7%	2.9%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

65%

1.5

35%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

35%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

56%

1.5

44%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

33%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Gnistan	Draw	Mariehamn
Gnistan	59.5%	1.2%	0.1%
Draw	23.5%	10.2%	1.3%
Mariehamn	1.4%	1.3%	1.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

32%

1.5

68%

59%

2.5

41%

81%

3.5

19%

Home Exact Goals

22%

27%

22%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

70%

1.5

30%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

62%

1.5

38%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Gnistan vs Mariehamn

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Gnistan — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H HJK Helsinki	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	A AC Oulu	W	1 - 2
08 Sep	H KuPS	D	1 - 1
31 Aug	H Turku PS	D	1 - 1
23 Aug	A HJK Helsinki	W	2 - 3

Mariehamn — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A SJK	L	2 - 1
12 Sep	H Turku PS	W	1 - 0
08 Sep	A Lahti	L	2 - 1
31 Aug	H FF Jaro	W	2 - 0
23 Aug	A KuPS	W	2 - 4

Veikkausliiga Standings

Champion Additional

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	25	13	9	3	41	24	+17	48
2	Inter Turku	25	13	9	3	32	18	+14	48
3	HJK Helsinki	25	12	6	7	39	29	+10	42
4	Gnistan	25	11	8	6	40	32	+8	41
5	VPS	25	10	6	9	30	25	+5	36
6	AC Oulu	25	10	4	11	26	29	-3	34

Relegation Play-Off

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lahti	25	10	6	9	30	24	+6	36
2	Ilves	25	10	4	11	42	38	+4	34
3	Turku PS	25	8	8	9	28	27	+1	32
4	SJK	25	5	9	11	28	35	-7	24
5	Mariehamn	25	4	5	16	20	47	-27	17
6	FF Jaro	25	3	8	14	20	48	-28	17

Mariehamn

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Roberth Bjorknesjo

32 Riikonen

31 Ngulube

2 Nurmi

38 Amankwah

5 Koivisto

8 Heyden

28 Nissinen

23 Widlund

20 Patut

18 Stroud

7 Larsson

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
32	Matias Riikonen	G
5	Tuomas Koivisto	D
38	Yeboah Amankwah	D
2	Noah Nurmi	D
31	Samson Ngulube	D
8	Jelle van der Heyden	M
18	Adam Stroud	M
20	Emmanuel Patut	M
23	Viktor Widlund	D
28	Jiri Nissinen	D
7	Adam Larsson	F

Substitutes

3	Aaro Soiniemi	D
11	Jonathan Svedberg	M
9	Wille Nuñez	F
14	Arvid Bergvik	M
43	Leo Andersson	F
1	Kevin Lund	G
16	Anttoni Huttunen	M
64	Marlo Hyvonen	M

Gnistan

Formation: 3-4-3 Coach: Jussi Leppalahti

1 Craninx

4 Costa

67 Obileye

24 Gnanou

12 Arko-Mensah

15 Europaeus

31 Jouhi

27 Hannula

26 Eremenko

17 Akinyemi

23 Ylätupa

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Alexandro Craninx	G
24	Rachide Gnanou	D
67	Ayo Obileye	D
4	Marcelo Costa	D
27	Otto Hannula	M
31	Adam Jouhi	M
15	Gabriel Europaeus	M
12	Edmund Arko-Mensah	D
23	Saku Ylätupa	M
17	Adeleke Akinyemi	F
26	Roman Eremenko	M

Substitutes

10	Joakim Latonen	F
7	Artur Atarah	M
14	Sergei Eremenko	M
11	Danny Pérez	F
50	Jeff Selenge	M
13	Oskar Lyberopoulos	G
40	Juhani Ojala	D
2	Benjamin Dahlström	D