Portugal vs Spain Prediction

World Cup · Round of 16

Post on X

Spain

Away

AI call Spain or draw

22%

29%

49%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Portugal vs Spain prediction: Sportiko gives Portugal a 22% chance of winning, Spain 49% and the draw 29%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Under 3.5 Goals 76%
2nd Half Over 0.5 74%

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Match Report

Portugal dominated much of this World Cup Round of 16 encounter, finishing with 56% possession, seven corners, and 15 total shots to Spain's nine. Yet for all their territorial control, Roberto Martínez's side managed just six shots on target and could not find a way through a disciplined Spanish backline. The first half ended goalless, reflecting the tight, cautious nature of the contest.

The game remained level deep into stoppage time despite a flurry of substitutions from both benches, with João Félix, João Cancelo, and Pedro Neto all introduced as Portugal pushed for a breakthrough. Spain, meanwhile, made their own changes and stayed compact, limiting Portugal to little of real danger in the final third.

The decisive moment arrived in the 90th minute when Mikel Merino broke Portuguese hearts with a late winner to send Spain through. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Spain victory as the most likely outcome at 49%, a call that proved correct in the most dramatic of fashions. Bernardo Silva and Renato Veiga picked up late yellow cards as frustration set in for Portugal, whose World Cup campaign ended in cruel circumstances.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

HT 0–0

Nuno Mendes ⇄ Nélson Semedo

56' ⇄

João Félix ⇄ Rafael Leão

71' ⇄

João Cancelo ⇄ Diogo Dalot

71' ⇄

⇄ 75'

Alex Baena ⇄ Ferran Torres

Pedro Neto ⇄ Francisco Conceição

83' ⇄

Vitinha ⇄ Bernardo Silva

83' ⇄

⇄ 85'

Pedri ⇄ Fabián Ruiz

⇄ 85'

Dani Olmo ⇄ Mikel Merino

Bernardo Silva Yellow Card

89' ▮

⚽ 0–1 90+1'

Mikel Merino assist: Ferran Torres

Renato Veiga Yellow Card

90+4' ▮

⇄ 90+7'

Mikel Oyarzabal ⇄ Borja Iglesias

▮ 90+8'

Ferran Torres Yellow Card

FT 0–1

Portugal

Match Stats

Spain

44% Ball Possession 56%

9 Total Shots 15

2 Shots on Goal 6

4 Shots off Goal 6

3 Blocked Shots 3

3 Corner Kicks 7

2 Offsides 1

9 Fouls 13

2 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 0

5 Goalkeeper Saves 2

12 Free Kicks 8

Portugal

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Diogo Costa G	7.6	90'	–	–	–	28 (19%)	–
20 João Cancelo D	7.2	71'	–	–	1	25 (21%)	1
25 Nuno Mendes D	7.2	56'	–	–	1	24 (23%)	4
15 João Neves M	6.9	90'	–	–	–	35 (34%)	4
5 Diogo Dalot D	6.9	19'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	1
13 Renato Veiga D	6.8	90'	–	–	–	59 (53%)	1
3 Rúben Dias D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	50 (42%)	–
17 Rafael Leão F	6.6	19'	–	–	–	9 (5%)	–
26 Francisco Conceição F	6.6	7'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	–
23 Vitinha M	6.5	83'	–	–	1	45 (40%)	–
18 Pedro Neto M	6.5	83'	–	–	1	27 (22%)	1
7 Cristiano Ronaldo F	6.4	90'	–	–	3	12 (10%)	–
11 João Félix M	6.4	71'	–	–	–	20 (15%)	2
8 Bruno Fernandes M	6.3	90'	–	–	1	50 (39%)	–
2 Nélson Semedo D	6.2	34'	–	–	–	13 (10%)	–
10 Bernardo Silva M	6.0	7'	–	–	1	12 (10%)	–

Spain

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
6 Mikel Merino M	8.2	5'	1	–	1	4 (4%)	–
12 Pedro Porro D	7.6	90'	–	–	1	37 (33%)	4
24 Marc Cucurella D	7.4	90'	–	–	–	38 (35%)	–
16 Rodri M	7.3	90'	–	–	1	93 (87%)	4
22 Pau Cubarsí D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	77 (71%)	–
20 Pedri M	7.2	85'	–	–	1	59 (55%)	1
14 Aymeric Laporte D	7.1	90'	–	–	–	41 (37%)	–
10 Dani Olmo M	7.0	85'	–	–	2	41 (35%)	1
8 Fabián Ruiz M	6.8	5'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	–
7 Ferran Torres F	6.8	15'	–	1	1	13 (9%)	–
15 Alex Baena M	6.8	75'	–	–	3	36 (28%)	4
23 Unai Simón G	6.6	90'	–	–	–	31 (21%)	–
19 Lamine Yamal M	6.6	90'	–	–	3	32 (25%)	5
21 Mikel Oyarzabal F	6.4	97'	–	–	2	22 (21%)	–

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Confidence Low (49%)

At a glance

Our lean

Spain or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.8%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

46%

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Portugal

LWDWD

Spain

WWWWW

Match summary

Portugal and Spain will clash in a high-stakes World Cup match, showcasing two of Europe’s elite teams. Historically, this rivalry has been closely contested, with recent encounters indicating a slight edge for Spain in terms of overall victories. Portugal boasts a solid attacking unit led by star players, while Spain's possession-based style remains a critical factor in their gameplay. Both teams will aim to capitalize on any defensive lapses, making set pieces and counterattacks vital strategies. Expect a tactical battle that could be decided by individual brilliance or a moment of error.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

22%

10%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

49%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Spain goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10	11	10	5	2	1
1	6	14	9	5	2	1
2	4	6	5	2	1
3	1	2	1	1
4
5

↑ Portugal goals · most likely 1–1 (13.7%)

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Players in form

Portugal

No scorer data.

Spain

Mikel Oyarzabal 5 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

49%

Draw

29%

Home Win

22%

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS Yes 50% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

54%

2.5

46%

76%

3.5

24%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

49%

Draw

29%

Home Win

22%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

69% Away (No Draw) 31% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

26% Away Win by 2+ 8% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

49% Away Scores More 29% Equal Goals 22% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

54%

2.5

46%

76%

3.5

24%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS Yes 50% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

17%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.7%	11.0%	9.7%	5.0%	2.0%
1	6.3%	13.8%	9.4%	4.9%	1.9%
2	3.8%	5.9%	4.6%	2.4%	0.9%
3	1.2%	1.9%	1.5%	0.8%	0.3%
4	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

58%

1.5

42%

84%

2.5

16%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

32%

26%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Portugal	Draw	Spain
Portugal	12.4%	4.1%	2.2%
Draw	9.2%	18.5%	17.6%
Spain	1.3%	4.2%	30.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

38%

37%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

65%

0.5

35%

93%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

54%

1.5

46%

80%

2.5

20%

93%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

21%

33%

26%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Portugal vs Spain

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Portugal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Jul	H Spain	L	0 - 1
02 Jul	H Croatia	W	2 - 1
27 Jun	A Colombia	D	0 - 0
23 Jun	H Uzbekistan	W	5 - 0
17 Jun	H Congo DR	D	1 - 1

Spain — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Jul	H Argentina	W	1 - 0
14 Jul	A France	W	0 - 2
10 Jul	H Belgium	W	2 - 1
06 Jul	A Portugal	W	0 - 1
02 Jul	H Austria	W	3 - 0

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Spain

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Luis de la Fuente

23 Simón

24 Cucurella

14 Laporte

22 Cubarsí

12 Porro

20 Pedri

16 Rodri

15 Baena

10 Olmo

19 Yamal

21 Oyarzabal

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Unai Simón	G
12	Pedro Porro	D
22	Pau Cubarsí	D
14	Aymeric Laporte	D
24	Marc Cucurella	D
16	Rodri	M
20	Pedri	M
19	Lamine Yamal	M
10	Dani Olmo	M
15	Alex Baena	M
21	Mikel Oyarzabal	F

Substitutes

1	David Raya	G
13	Joan García	G
4	Eric García	D
5	Marcos Llorente	M
2	Marc Pubill	D
3	Alejandro Grimaldo	D
8	Fabián Ruiz	M
18	Martín Zubimendi	M
6	Mikel Merino	M
17	Nico Williams	F
9	Pablo Gavi	M
26	Borja Iglesias	F
7	Ferran Torres	F
25	Víctor Muñoz	F
11	Yéremy Pino	M

Portugal

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Roberto Martinez

1 Costa

25 Mendes

13 Veiga

3 Dias

20 Cancelo

15 Neves

23 Vitinha

11 Félix

8 Fernandes

18 Neto

7 Ronaldo

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Diogo Costa	G
20	João Cancelo	D
3	Rúben Dias	D
13	Renato Veiga	D
25	Nuno Mendes	D
23	Vitinha	M
15	João Neves	M
18	Pedro Neto	M
8	Bruno Fernandes	M
11	João Félix	M
7	Cristiano Ronaldo	F

Substitutes

2	Nélson Semedo	D
12	José Sá	G
22	Rui Silva	G
6	Matheus Nunes	M
14	Gonçalo Inácio	D
5	Diogo Dalot	D
4	Tomás Araújo	D
10	Bernardo Silva	M
19	Gonçalo Guedes	F
16	Francisco Trincão	F
24	Samú Costa	M
21	Rúben Neves	M
26	Francisco Conceição	F
9	Gonçalo Ramos	F
17	Rafael Leão	F