Dundalk vs Drogheda United Prediction

Premier Division · Regular Season - 24

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Drogheda United

Away

Oriel Park, Dundalk

AI call Dundalk to win or draw

78%

19%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Dundalk vs Drogheda United prediction: Sportiko gives Dundalk a 78% chance of winning, Drogheda United 4% and the draw 19%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Timeline

Gbemi Arubi

29' ⚽ 1–0

Yellow Card

45+4' ▮

HT 1–0

⇄ 46'

Leo Burney ⇄ James Bolger

▮ 50'

Jason Bucknor Yellow Card

Keith Buckley ⇄ Shane Tracey

63' ⇄

Tyreke Wilson ⇄ Declan McDaid

63' ⇄

John Ross Wilson

63' ⇄

Yellow Card

69' ▮

⇄ 70'

Brandon Kavanagh ⇄ Jago Godden

⚽ 1–1 73'

Shane Farell

⇄ 76'

Mark Doyle

⇄ Harry Groome

80' ⇄

⚽ 1–2 85'

Shane Farell

FT 1–2

Dundalk

Match Stats

Drogheda United

55% Ball Possession 45%

9 Total Shots 11

4 Shots on Goal 3

2 Shots off Goal 6

3 Blocked Shots 2

5 Shots insidebox 8

4 Shots outsidebox 3

6 Corner Kicks 3

0 Offsides 2

10 Fouls 3

1 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 0

3 Goalkeeper Saves 3

281 Total passes 225

200 Passes accurate 138

2 Free Kicks 10

Dundalk

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
Gbemi Arubi	8.1	70'	1	–	4	10 (6%)	2
John Ross Wilson	7.2	63'	–	–	1	21 (17%)	1
M. Animasahun	7.1	70'	–	–	–	23 (17%)	4
Robert Cornwall	6.9	70'	–	–	–	29 (20%)	2
Bobby Burns	6.9	70'	–	–	1	33 (26%)	1
Enda Minogue	6.6	70'	–	–	–	27 (11%)	–
Declan McDaid	6.6	7'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	–
T. Clarke	6.5	7'	–	–	–	4 (2%)	–
Aodh Dervin	6.4	70'	–	–	–	37 (31%)	3
Keith Buckley	6.3	63'	–	–	–	27 (18%)	1
J. Wilson	6.3	63'	–	–	–	12 (9%)	–
R. Teahan	6.1	70'	–	–	2	21 (16%)	2
Daryl Horgan	6.0	70'	–	–	1	27 (20%)	–

Drogheda United

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
Brandon Kavanagh	7.2	70'	–	–	2	21 (17%)	1
Shane Farell	6.6	70'	–	–	2	18 (14%)	2
Luke Dennison	6.4	70'	–	–	–	26 (11%)	–
Conor Kane	6.4	70'	–	–	–	19 (8%)	–
James Bolger	6.3	24'	–	–	1	4 (2%)	1
Mark Doyle	6.2	70'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	–
Edwin Agbaje	6.0	70'	–	–	–	32 (22%)	3
Thomas Oluwa	6.0	70'	–	–	3	7 (3%)	–
Ryan Brennan	5.9	70'	–	–	1	26 (15%)	3
Conor Keeley	5.8	70'	–	–	1	23 (11%)	4
Leo Burney	5.6	46'	–	–	–	22 (13%)	–

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Confidence High (78%)

At a glance

Our lean

Dundalk to win or draw

Most likely score

2:0 · 20.4%

Both teams to score

23%

Over 2.5 goals

40%

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Dundalk

LLDLW

Drogheda United

LWWLL

Last 1 meetings Dundalk · 1W 0D 0L

Match summary

Dundalk faces Drogheda United in a Premier Division clash on July 10, 2026. Historically, Dundalk has performed well against Drogheda, with a strong home record in recent encounters. The home side's attacking prowess, averaging 1.8 goals per match this season, will be crucial against a Drogheda defense that has conceded an average of 1.5 goals per match. Both teams will be looking to secure points to improve their league standings, making this a pivotal match for both sides. Expect a competitive encounter with tactical battles in midfield likely determining the outcome.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

78%

45%

Draw

19%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Drogheda United goals →

	0	1	2
0	11	2
1	19	7	1
2	20	6	1
3	14	4	1
4	7	2
5	3	1

↑ Dundalk goals · most likely 2–0 (20.4%)

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Players in form

Dundalk

D. Horgan 10 gls

G. Arubi 7 gls

Drogheda United

M. Doyle 8 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

78%

Draw

19%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

77% BTTS No 23% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

81%

3.5

19%

93%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

78%

Draw

19%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

95% Home (No Draw) 5% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

51% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

78% Home Scores More 19% Equal Goals 4% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

81%

3.5

19%

93%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

77% BTTS No 23% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

22%

28%

21%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.8%	2.2%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
1	19.4%	6.9%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
2	20.4%	6.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	13.7%	4.1%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
4	6.9%	2.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

36%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

63%

1.5

37%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

34%

23%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Dundalk	Draw	Drogheda United
Dundalk	52.6%	1.5%	0.1%
Draw	24.8%	14.1%	1.9%
Drogheda United	1.3%	1.6%	2.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

87%

41%

1.5

59%

68%

2.5

32%

87%

3.5

13%

Home Exact Goals

14%

27%

28%

19%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Dundalk vs Drogheda United

1 Dundalk Wins

0 Draws

0 Drogheda United Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
28 Aug 2026	Drogheda United	2 - 3	Dundalk

Dundalk — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Shelbourne	L	2 - 3
14 Sep	H St Patrick's Athl.	L	0 - 4
11 Sep	A Waterford	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	A Derry City	L	4 - 2
28 Aug	A Drogheda United	W	2 - 3

Drogheda United — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Bohemians	L	2 - 1
14 Sep	A Shelbourne	W	1 - 2
11 Sep	H Sligo Rovers	W	2 - 0
04 Sep	H Galway United	L	1 - 2
28 Aug	H Dundalk	L	2 - 3

Premier Division Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	St Patrick's Athl.	32	17	8	7	52	25	+27	59
2	Shamrock Rovers	31	17	8	6	49	31	+18	59
3	Bohemians	31	16	8	7	55	37	+18	56
4	Derry City	32	9	14	9	45	42	+3	41
5	Dundalk	32	10	11	11	49	53	-4	41
6	Shelbourne	31	9	12	10	41	44	-3	39
7	Galway United	31	9	10	12	41	47	-6	37
8	Waterford	32	7	13	12	44	54	-10	34
9	Drogheda United	32	8	10	14	38	51	-13	34
10	Sligo Rovers	32	5	8	19	24	54	-30	23

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.