USA vs Belgium Prediction

World Cup · Round of 16

Post on X

Belgium

Away

Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington

AI call Belgium or draw

27%

32%

40%

Home Win Draw Away Win

USA vs Belgium prediction: Sportiko gives USA a 27% chance of winning, Belgium 40% and the draw 32%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

Premium picks

Premium

Away to Score 71%
1st Half Home or Draw 71%

Premium members had these picks before kick-off. See Premium picks

Match Report

Belgium advanced to the next round of the World Cup with a commanding 4–1 victory over the United States in this Round of 16 tie. Charles De Ketelaere put Belgium ahead as early as the ninth minute, and although Malik Tillman levelled for the Americans in the 31st, De Ketelaere restored the lead just two minutes later to give Belgium a 2–1 advantage at half-time. The Red Devils' forward completed his brace in a lively opening period that also saw Weston McKennie pick up a yellow card.

The second half followed a similar pattern. Hans Vanaken extended Belgium's lead to 3–1 on 57 minutes, effectively ending the contest, and Belgium managed the game comfortably from that point despite a flurry of substitutions from both sides. The final scoreline of 4–1 reflected Belgium's control throughout.

The statistics told an interesting story — the USA generated 2.10 expected goals to Belgium's 0.64, yet clinical finishing proved the decisive factor. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Belgium win as the most likely outcome at 40%, a call that proved correct as the Belgians progressed.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 9'

Charles De Ketelaere assist: Nicolas Raskin

⇄ 21'

Amadou Onana ⇄ Hans Vanaken

Malik Tillman

31' ⚽ 1–1

⚽ 1–2 33'

Charles De Ketelaere assist: Leandro Trossard

Weston McKennie Yellow Card

35' ▮

HT 1–2

Sergiño Dest ⇄ Giovanni Reyna

46' ⇄

⚽ 1–3 57'

Hans Vanaken assist: Charles De Ketelaere

Christian Pulišić ⇄ Sebastian Berhalter

59' ⇄

⇄ 67'

Dodi Lukebakio ⇄ Jérémy Doku

⇄ 67'

Charles De Ketelaere ⇄ Romelu Lukaku

Malik Tillman Yellow Card

69' ▮

Tyler Adams ⇄ Ricardo Pepi

72' ⇄

⇄ 89'

Leandro Trossard ⇄ Alexis Saelemaekers

⇄ 89'

Nicolas Raskin ⇄ Axel Witsel

FT 1–4

USA

Match Stats

Belgium

56% Ball Possession 44%

0.64 Expected Goals (xG) 2.10

7 Total Shots 14

2 Shots on Goal 6

5 Shots off Goal 4

0 Blocked Shots 4

5 Shots insidebox 9

2 Shots outsidebox 5

3 Corner Kicks 5

0 Offsides 1

10 Fouls 9

2 Yellow Cards 0

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 1

490 Total passes 388

427 Passes accurate 317

87% Passes % 82%

-0.69 goals_prevented -0.69

USA

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
17 Malik Tillman M	7.3	89'	1	–	1	33 (26%)	2
14 Sebastian Berhalter M	7.0	30'	–	–	1	26 (25%)	–
16 Alexander Freeman D	6.9	89'	–	–	2	52 (44%)	5
4 Tyler Adams M	6.9	72'	–	–	–	61 (59%)	2
2 Sergiño Dest F	6.7	45'	–	–	–	14 (11%)	–
3 Chris Richards D	6.6	89'	–	–	–	71 (64%)	1
7 Giovanni Reyna M	6.6	44'	–	–	–	20 (18%)	1
9 Ricardo Pepi F	6.6	17'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	1
20 Folarin Balogun F	6.5	89'	–	–	3	10 (6%)	–
24 Matthew Freese G	6.3	89'	–	–	–	17 (14%)	–
5 Antonee Robinson D	6.3	89'	–	–	–	48 (39%)	7
10 Christian Pulišić F	6.2	59'	–	–	–	19 (16%)	–
8 Weston McKennie M	6.0	89'	–	–	–	35 (27%)	–
13 Tim Ream D	5.7	89'	–	–	–	81 (76%)	–

Belgium

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
17 Charles De Ketelaere F	8.3	67'	2	1	3	17 (15%)	1
23 Nicolas Raskin M	7.7	89'	–	1	1	45 (37%)	4
10 Leandro Trossard M	7.3	89'	–	1	1	23 (17%)	1
20 Hans Vanaken M	7.3	68'	1	–	1	37 (32%)	1
21 Timothy Castagne D	6.9	89'	–	–	1	40 (37%)	2
24 Amadou Onana M	6.9	21'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	2
11 Jérémy Doku F	6.9	22'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	–
5 Maxim De Cuyper D	6.9	89'	–	–	–	40 (33%)	4
8 Youri Tielemans M	6.6	89'	–	–	1	38 (31%)	2
14 Dodi Lukebakio M	6.6	67'	–	–	2	17 (15%)	1
9 Romelu Lukaku F	6.5	22'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
1 Thibaut Courtois G	6.2	89'	–	–	–	39 (24%)	–
25 Nathan Ngoy D	6.2	89'	–	–	–	34 (27%)	1
4 Brandon Mechele D	6.2	89'	–	–	–	35 (29%)	2

Premium

Unlock the AI's full read on USA vs Belgium

All 70+ probability markets
AI Deep-Dive match report
Value Edge — model vs market
Live in-play co-pilot

Go Premium

Confidence Low (40%)

At a glance

Our lean

Belgium or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 15%

Both teams to score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

USA

LWLWW

Belgium

LWWWD

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup clash between the USA and Belgium, both teams bring contrasting styles to the pitch. The USA has shown resilience in recent matches, with a solid defensive record, conceding only 1.2 goals per game on average this year. Belgium, known for their attacking prowess, will rely on their star players to break down defenses, having scored an average of 2.1 goals per match in their qualifying campaign. The outcome will likely hinge on the USA's ability to contain Belgium's midfield creativity, while the Belgian defense must be wary of the USA's counter-attacking threats. This matchup promises to be a tactical battle between two teams eager to progress in the tournament.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

27%

10%

Draw

32%

45%

Away

40%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Belgium goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	13	12	8	3	1
1	9	15	8	3	1
2	5	6	4	2
3	2	2	1	1
4		1
5

↑ USA goals · most likely 1–1 (15.0%)

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Players in form

USA

No scorer data.

Belgium

R. Lukaku 3 gls

C. De Ketelaere 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

Why this pick? · Premium AI Deep-Dive · Premium

You're seeing the free 1X2 result — unlock all 70+ models: goals, both-teams-to-score, the correct-score grid, handicaps, halves & more.

Unlock all models

Match Result

Away Win

40%

Draw

32%

Home Win

27%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

34%

1.5

66%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

Premium

Home or Away

Premium

Home or Draw

Premium

Match Result

Away Win

40%

Draw

32%

Home Win

27%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

Premium

Home or Away

Premium

Home or Draw

Premium

Winner

60% Away (No Draw) 40% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

18% Away Win by 2+ 10% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

40% Away Scores More 32% Equal Goals 27% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

34%

1.5

66%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

21%

29%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

Premium

2-4 Goals

Premium

1-2 Goals

Premium

2-3 Goals

Premium

3-5 Goals

Premium

4-6 Goals

Premium

Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

Premium

BTTS & Under 3.5

Premium

BTTS & Over 3.5

Premium

Result + Goals

Away Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Away Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Home Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Home Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Draw & Over 2.5

Premium

Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

Premium

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

Premium

Home/Away & Over 2.5

Premium

Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.8%	11.9%	8.4%	3.4%	1.1%
1	9.1%	15.0%	8.2%	3.3%	1.0%
2	5.2%	6.4%	4.0%	1.6%	0.5%
3	1.7%	2.1%	1.3%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

Premium

1st Half Away Win

Premium

1st Half Home Win

Premium

1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

Premium

1st Half Home or Draw

Premium

1st Half Home or Away

Premium

1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

Premium

1h Exact Goals

38%

34%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

Premium

2nd Half Away Win

Premium

2nd Half Home Win

Premium

2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

Premium

2nd Half Home or Draw

Premium

2nd Half Home or Away

Premium

2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

Premium

2h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	USA	Draw	Belgium
USA	15.8%	4.2%	1.8%
Draw	11.3%	21.8%	16.0%
Belgium	1.3%	4.1%	23.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

38%

37%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

93%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

65%

1.5

35%

87%

2.5

13%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

29%

36%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

89%

1.5

11%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

Premium

Home +2 Win

Premium

Away +1 Win

Premium

Home +1 Win

Premium

Away -1 Draw

Premium

Away -1 Win

Premium

Home -1 Draw

Premium

Away -2 Draw

Premium

Home -1 Win

Premium

Home -2 Draw

Premium

Away -2 Win

Premium

Home -2 Win

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Head to Head: USA vs Belgium

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

USA — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Jul	H Belgium	L	1 - 4
02 Jul	H Bosnia & Herzegovina	W	2 - 0
26 Jun	A Türkiye	L	3 - 2
19 Jun	H Australia	W	2 - 0
13 Jun	H Paraguay	W	4 - 1

Belgium — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
10 Jul	A Spain	L	2 - 1
07 Jul	A USA	W	1 - 4
01 Jul	H Senegal	W	3 - 2
27 Jun	A New Zealand	W	1 - 5
21 Jun	H Iran	D	0 - 0

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Belgium

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Rudi Garcia

1 Courtois

5 Cuyper

4 Mechele

25 Ngoy

21 Castagne

23 Raskin

24 Onana

10 Trossard

8 Tielemans

14 Lukebakio

17 Ketelaere

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Thibaut Courtois	G
21	Timothy Castagne	D
25	Nathan Ngoy	D
4	Brandon Mechele	D
5	Maxim De Cuyper	D
24	Amadou Onana	M
23	Nicolas Raskin	M
14	Dodi Lukebakio	M
8	Youri Tielemans	M
10	Leandro Trossard	M
17	Charles De Ketelaere	F

Substitutes

20	Hans Vanaken	M
11	Jérémy Doku	F
13	Mike Penders	G
12	Senne Lammens	G
18	Joaquin Seys	D
3	Arthur Theate	D
16	Koni De Winter	D
2	Zeno Debast	D
15	Thomas Meunier	D
19	Diego Moreira	F
22	Alexis Saelemaekers	F
6	Axel Witsel	M
7	Kevin De Bruyne	M
26	Matías Fernández-Pardo	F
9	Romelu Lukaku	F

USA

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Mauricio Pochettino

24 Freese

5 Robinson

13 Ream

3 Richards

16 Freeman

17 Tillman

4 Adams

8 McKennie

10 Pulišić

20 Balogun

2 Dest

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
24	Matthew Freese	G
16	Alexander Freeman	D
3	Chris Richards	D
13	Tim Ream	D
5	Antonee Robinson	D
8	Weston McKennie	M
4	Tyler Adams	M
17	Malik Tillman	M
2	Sergiño Dest	F
20	Folarin Balogun	F
10	Christian Pulišić	F

Substitutes

7	Giovanni Reyna	M
14	Sebastian Berhalter	M
1	Matt Turner	G
25	Chris Brady	G
12	Miles Robinson	D
22	Mark McKenzie	D
6	Auston Trusty	D
23	Joe Scally	D
26	Alex Zendejas	F
18	Maximilian Arfsten	M
21	Timothy Weah	F
11	Brenden Aaronson	M
19	Haji Wright	F
9	Ricardo Pepi	F