Mexico vs England Prediction

World Cup · Round of 16

Post on X

England

Away

AI call England or draw

31%

38%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Mexico vs England prediction: Sportiko gives Mexico a 31% chance of winning, England 38% and the draw 31%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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1st Half Draw or Away 76%
Away to Score 72%
2nd Half Over 0.5 72%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%

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Match Report

England advanced to the World Cup quarter-finals with a 3–2 victory over Mexico in a lively round of 16 tie. Jude Bellingham was the architect of the win, scoring twice in quick succession in the 36th and 38th minutes to give England a commanding lead before half-time. Mexico pulled one back through Julián Quiñones just before the interval to keep the contest alive at 2–1 heading into the break.

The second half brought further drama. England extended their lead through a Harry Kane penalty on the hour mark, but Mexico responded almost immediately with a Raúl Jiménez spot-kick in the 69th minute to make it 3–2. England were also reduced to ten men when Jarell Quansah received a red card in the 54th minute, making the final stages a tense affair. Despite the numerical disadvantage, England held on, backed by a dominant display in possession — controlling 66% of the ball and generating 18 total shots to Mexico's six.

Our pre-match AI model had rated an England win as the most likely outcome at 38%, a call that ultimately proved correct as the Three Lions progressed.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 1'

Declan Rice Yellow Card

⚽ 0–1 36'

Jude Bellingham assist: Bukayo Saka

⚽ 0–2 38'

Jude Bellingham assist: Harry Kane

Julián Quiñones

42' ⚽ 1–2

HT 1–2

César Montes ⇄ Edson Álvarez

46' ⇄

▮ 54'

Jarell Quansah Red Card

⇄ 57'

Bukayo Saka ⇄ John Stones

⚽ 1–3 60'

Harry Kane Penalty

Gilberto Mora ⇄ Santiago Giménez

61' ⇄

Luis Romo ⇄ Brian Gutiérrez

61' ⇄

▮ 68'

Marc Guéhi Yellow Card

Raúl Jiménez Penalty

69' ⚽ 2–3

Jorge Sánchez Yellow Card

71' ▮

▮ 72'

Nico O'Reilly Yellow Card

⇄ 74'

Nico O'Reilly ⇄ Djed Spence

⇄ 75'

Elliot Anderson ⇄ Dan Burn

Jorge Sánchez ⇄ Álvaro Fidalgo

79' ⇄

Julián Quiñones ⇄ Guillermo Martínez

81' ⇄

⇄ 90'

Harry Kane ⇄ Morgan Rogers

Johan Vásquez Yellow Card

90+8' ▮

▮ 90+8'

Jordan Henderson Yellow Card

FT 2–3

Mexico

Match Stats

England

66% Ball Possession 34%

1.87 Expected Goals (xG) 1.55

18 Total Shots 6

5 Shots on Goal 5

7 Shots off Goal 1

6 Blocked Shots 0

10 Shots insidebox 4

8 Shots outsidebox 2

10 Corner Kicks 2

1 Offsides 0

14 Fouls 7

2 Yellow Cards 4

0 Red Cards 1

2 Goalkeeper Saves 3

440 Total passes 241

407 Passes accurate 194

93% Passes % 80%

-0.15 goals_prevented -0.15

Mexico

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
16 Julián Quiñones F	7.9	81'	1	–	2	29 (26%)	1
25 Roberto Alvarado F	7.5	100'	–	–	–	49 (42%)	2
6 Erik Lira M	7.3	100'	–	–	–	69 (67%)	2
9 Raúl Jiménez F	7.3	100'	1	–	5	14 (8%)	–
4 Edson Álvarez M	7.3	55'	–	–	1	27 (26%)	2
5 Johan Vásquez D	6.9	100'	–	–	–	59 (56%)	2
26 Brian Gutiérrez M	6.9	39'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	–
8 Álvaro Fidalgo M	6.9	21'	–	–	1	24 (24%)	–
22 Guillermo Martínez F	6.5	19'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
23 Jesús Gallardo D	6.3	100'	–	–	1	26 (23%)	1
7 Luis Romo M	6.3	61'	–	–	1	25 (23%)	–
3 César Montes D	6.2	45'	–	–	–	39 (37%)	–
11 Santiago Giménez F	6.2	39'	–	–	1	2 (2%)	–
1 Raúl Rangel G	6.0	100'	–	–	–	17 (17%)	–
2 Jorge Sánchez D	5.9	79'	–	–	–	24 (24%)	4
19 Gilberto Mora M	5.6	61'	–	–	–	23 (21%)	2

England

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Jude Bellingham M	9.2	100'	2	–	3	23 (16%)	3
8 Elliot Anderson M	7.3	75'	–	–	–	25 (21%)	5
18 Anthony Gordon M	7.3	100'	–	–	1	11 (7%)	3
9 Harry Kane F	7.3	90'	1	1	1	9 (9%)	1
7 Bukayo Saka M	7.3	57'	–	1	–	6 (6%)	3
1 Jordan Pickford G	7.2	100'	–	–	–	33 (18%)	–
15 Dan Burn D	6.6	25'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
25 Djed Spence D	6.6	26'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
4 Declan Rice M	6.5	100'	–	–	–	30 (26%)	–
17 Morgan Rogers M	6.5	10'	–	–	–	1	–
5 John Stones D	6.3	43'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
6 Marc Guéhi D	6.3	100'	–	–	–	35 (31%)	–
2 Ezri Konsa D	6.2	100'	–	–	–	30 (28%)	–
3 Nico O'Reilly D	6.2	74'	–	–	1	15 (14%)	1
26 Jarell Quansah D	5.3	54'	–	–	–	17 (14%)	2

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Confidence Low (38%)

At a glance

Our lean

England or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.7%

Both teams to score

51%

Over 2.5 goals

43%

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Mexico

LWWWW

England

WLWWW

Match summary

In this World Cup matchup, Mexico will face England in a neutral venue, emphasizing the importance of tactical execution and individual performances. Mexico's attacking prowess, highlighted by their dynamic forward line, could test England's defensive organization, which has shown resilience but occasionally lapses against pacey wingers. England, known for their structured midfield and set-piece efficiency, will aim to control possession and exploit any defensive weaknesses. Both teams bring strong historical performances in international tournaments, making this an intriguing clash of styles that could hinge on key player contributions and strategic adjustments.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

31%

45%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

38%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

England goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11	10	7	3	1
1	8	15	8	4	1
2	6	7	5	2	1
3	2	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Mexico goals · most likely 1–1 (14.7%)

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Players in form

Mexico

J. Quiñones 4 gls

England

J. Bellingham 7 gls

H. Kane 6 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

38%

Home Win

31%

Draw

31%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

38%

Home Win

31%

Draw

31%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

55% Away (No Draw) 45% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

18% Away Win by 2+ 13% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

38% Away Scores More 31% Home Scores More 31% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS Yes 49% BTTS No

Exact Goals

11%

18%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.6%	9.7%	7.3%	3.1%	1.0%
1	8.5%	14.7%	8.3%	3.6%	1.1%
2	5.8%	7.4%	4.8%	2.0%	0.7%
3	2.2%	2.8%	1.8%	0.8%	0.3%
4	0.6%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Mexico	Draw	England
Mexico	18.1%	4.3%	1.9%
Draw	12.5%	19.9%	14.5%
England	1.7%	4.5%	22.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

69%

1.5

31%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

32%

37%

21%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

86%

2.5

14%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Mexico vs England

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Mexico — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Jul	H England	L	2 - 3
01 Jul	H Ecuador	W	2 - 0
25 Jun	A Czechia	W	0 - 3
19 Jun	H South Korea	W	1 - 0
11 Jun	H South Africa	W	2 - 0

England — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Jul	A France	W	4 - 6
15 Jul	H Argentina	L	1 - 2
11 Jul	A Norway	W	1 - 2
06 Jul	A Mexico	W	2 - 3
01 Jul	H Congo DR	W	2 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

England

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Thomas Tuchel

1 Pickford

3 O'Reilly

6 Guéhi

2 Konsa

26 Quansah

8 Anderson

4 Rice

18 Gordon

10 Bellingham

7 Saka

9 Kane

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Jordan Pickford	G
26	Jarell Quansah	D
2	Ezri Konsa	D
6	Marc Guéhi	D
3	Nico O'Reilly	D
4	Declan Rice	M
8	Elliot Anderson	M
7	Bukayo Saka	M
10	Jude Bellingham	M
18	Anthony Gordon	M
9	Harry Kane	F

Substitutes

5	John Stones	D
13	Dean Henderson	G
23	James Trafford	G
12	Trevoh Chalobah	D
15	Dan Burn	D
24	Reece James	D
25	Djed Spence	D
14	Jordan Henderson	M
16	Kobbie Mainoo	M
17	Morgan Rogers	M
21	Eberechi Eze	M
11	Marcus Rashford	F
19	Ollie Watkins	F
20	Noni Madueke	F
22	Ivan Toney	F

Mexico

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Javier Aguirre

1 Rangel

23 Gallardo

5 Vásquez

3 Montes

2 Sánchez

7 Romo

6 Lira

19 Mora

16 Quiñones

9 Jiménez

25 Alvarado

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Raúl Rangel	G
2	Jorge Sánchez	D
3	César Montes	D
5	Johan Vásquez	D
23	Jesús Gallardo	D
19	Gilberto Mora	M
6	Erik Lira	M
7	Luis Romo	M
25	Roberto Alvarado	F
9	Raúl Jiménez	F
16	Julián Quiñones	F

Substitutes

4	Edson Álvarez	M
26	Brian Gutiérrez	M
11	Santiago Giménez	F
12	Carlos Acevedo	G
13	Guillermo Ochoa	G
15	Israel Reyes	D
20	Mateo Chávez	D
8	Álvaro Fidalgo	M
17	Orbelín Pineda	M
18	Obed Vargas	M
24	Luis Chávez	M
10	Alexis Vega	F
21	César Huerta	M
14	Armando González	F
22	Guillermo Martínez	F