Paraguay vs France Prediction

World Cup · Round of 16

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France

Away

AI call France to win

15%

81%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Paraguay vs France prediction: Sportiko gives Paraguay a 3% chance of winning, France 81% and the draw 15%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5 73%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Away 2H Over 0.5 73%

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Match Report

France edged past Paraguay 1–0 in a controlled if unspectacular World Cup round-of-16 encounter, with Kylian Mbappé's 70th-minute penalty proving the decisive moment. The first half ended goalless despite France's overwhelming territorial dominance, with Paraguay's compact defensive shape frustrating the European side for long stretches. Our pre-match AI model had rated a France victory as most likely at 81%, a call that proved correct.

The tie was broken when VAR confirmed a penalty in favour of France at the 67th minute, and Mbappé stepped up to convert with authority three minutes later. Paraguay had offered little going forward throughout, managing just one shot on target against France's five, while the xG figures — 1.45 to 0.13 — underlined just how one-sided the contest was in terms of genuine scoring opportunities.

France's 76% possession and 12 corner kicks illustrated their total control of the game, though Paraguay's resilience kept the scoreline tight until the penalty intervention. Yellow cards for Bradley Barcola, Manu Koné, and Michael Olise were minor blemishes on an otherwise disciplined French performance as they advance to the quarter-finals.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 19'

Bradley Barcola Yellow Card

HT 0–0

Omar Alderete ⇄ José Canale

58' ⇄

Julio Enciso ⇄ Gustavo Caballero

61' ⇄

⇄ 61'

Bradley Barcola ⇄ Désiré Doué

🖵 67'

Désiré Doué Penalty confirmed

⚽ 0–1 70'

Kylian Mbappé Penalty

Miguel Almirón ⇄ Gabriel Ávalos

71' ⇄

Gustavo Gómez ⇄ Mauricio

71' ⇄

▮ 81'

Manu Koné Yellow Card

⇄ 84'

Ousmane Dembélé ⇄ Rayan Cherki

▮ 90+7'

Michael Olise Yellow Card

FT 0–1

Paraguay

Match Stats

France

24% Ball Possession 76%

0.13 Expected Goals (xG) 1.45

5 Total Shots 15

1 Shots on Goal 5

4 Shots off Goal 6

1 Blocked Shots 4

1 Shots insidebox 5

4 Shots outsidebox 10

2 Corner Kicks 12

Offsides

13 Fouls 11

0 Yellow Cards 3

Red Cards

4 Goalkeeper Saves 1

183 Total passes 569

98 Passes accurate 510

54% Passes % 90%

0.37 goals_prevented 0.37

Paraguay

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
12 Orlando Gill G	7.6	90'	–	–	–	23 (6%)	–
14 Andrés Cubas M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	22 (15%)	7
4 Juan Cáceres D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	15 (8%)	4
15 Gustavo Gómez D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	1
6 Junior Alonso D	6.7	90'	–	–	2	18 (9%)	3
24 Gustavo Caballero F	6.7	29'	–	–	–	1	3
3 Omar Alderete D	6.6	58'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	–
11 Mauricio M	6.6	19'	–	–	1	6 (5%)	1
19 Julio Enciso F	6.5	61'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	1
21 Gabriel Ávalos F	6.5	19'	–	–	–	3 (1%)	–
8 Diego Gómez M	6.3	71'	–	–	1	18 (11%)	4
10 Miguel Almirón M	6.3	71'	–	–	–	15 (8%)	2
23 Matías Galarza M	6.3	90'	–	–	–	28 (17%)	2
2 Gustavo Velázquez D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	13 (4%)	1
13 José Canale D	6.2	32'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	–

France

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
17 William Saliba D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	66 (63%)	–
4 Dayot Upamecano D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	65 (61%)	4
20 Désiré Doué F	7.3	29'	–	–	–	18 (16%)	1
10 Kylian Mbappé F	7.3	90'	1	–	5	27 (22%)	–
5 Jules Koundé D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	59 (56%)	2
3 Lucas Digne D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	55 (47%)	3
16 Mike Maignan G	7.0	90'	–	–	–	28 (23%)	–
14 Adrien Rabiot M	6.9	90'	–	–	2	61 (51%)	–
6 Manu Koné M	6.9	90'	–	–	2	71 (66%)	1
11 Michael Olise M	6.6	90'	–	–	–	60 (56%)	1
12 Bradley Barcola M	6.5	61'	–	–	1	13 (13%)	1
24 Rayan Cherki M	6.3	17'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	–
7 Ousmane Dembélé M	6.2	84'	–	–	1	41 (31%)	–

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Confidence High (81%)

At a glance

Our lean

France to win

Most likely score

0:2 · 19.2%

Both teams to score

27%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

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Paraguay

LDDWL

France

LLWWW

Match summary

In this World Cup matchup, Paraguay faces a formidable challenge against France, a team known for its depth and attacking prowess. France boasts a high conversion rate, with an average of 2.3 goals per match in recent tournaments, while Paraguay's defensive record shows vulnerability, conceding 1.5 goals per match. The ability of Paraguay to capitalize on set pieces will be crucial, as they face a French side that has historically been strong in aerial duels. Overall, France's experience and tactical flexibility may give them the edge in this encounter.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

France goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	16	19	15	9	4
1	2	6	7	5	3	1
2		1	1	1	1
3
4
5

↑ Paraguay goals · most likely 0–2 (19.2%)

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Players in form

Paraguay

No scorer data.

France

Kylian Mbappé 10 gls

O. Dembélé 6 gls

B. Barcola 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

81%

Draw

15%

Home Win

Both Teams To Score

73% BTTS No 27% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

25%

1.5

75%

51%

2.5

49%

74%

3.5

26%

89%

4.5

11%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

81%

Draw

15%

Home Win

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

96% Away (No Draw) 4% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

58% Away Win by 2+ 1% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

81% Away Scores More 15% Equal Goals 3% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

25%

1.5

75%

51%

2.5

49%

74%

3.5

26%

89%

4.5

11%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

73% BTTS No 27% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

17%

26%

23%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

51% Even Total Goals 49% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.6%	15.5%	19.2%	15.1%	8.9%
1	1.7%	6.4%	6.7%	5.3%	3.1%
2	0.4%	1.0%	1.2%	0.9%	0.5%
3	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

35%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

56%

1.5

44%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

32%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Paraguay	Draw	France
Paraguay	1.8%	1.5%	1.5%
Draw	1.7%	10.8%	23.6%
France	0.2%	1.5%	57.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

70%

0.5

30%

95%

1.5

99%

2.5

100%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

70%

25%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

83%

0.5

17%

98%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

33%

1.5

67%

60%

2.5

40%

81%

3.5

19%

Away Exact Goals

10%

23%

27%

21%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

71%

1.5

29%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

63%

1.5

37%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Paraguay vs France

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Paraguay — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
04 Jul	H France	L	0 - 1
29 Jun	A Germany	D	1 - 1
26 Jun	H Australia	D	0 - 0
20 Jun	A Türkiye	W	0 - 1
13 Jun	A USA	L	4 - 1

France — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Jul	H England	L	4 - 6
14 Jul	H Spain	L	0 - 2
09 Jul	H Morocco	W	2 - 0
04 Jul	A Paraguay	W	0 - 1
30 Jun	H Sweden	W	3 - 0

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

France

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Didier Deschamps

16 Maignan

3 Digne

17 Saliba

4 Upamecano

5 Kounde

14 Rabiot

6 Kone

12 Barcola

11 Olise

7 Dembele

10 Mbappe

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
16	M. Maignan	G
5	J. Kounde	D
4	D. Upamecano	D
17	W. Saliba	D
3	L. Digne	D
6	M. Kone	M
14	A. Rabiot	M
7	O. Dembele	M
11	M. Olise	M
12	B. Barcola	M
10	K. Mbappe	F

Substitutes

1	B. Samba	G
23	R. Risser	G
15	I. Konate	D
8	A. Tchouameni	M
26	M. Lacroix	D
2	M. Gusto	D
25	M. Akliouche	M
18	W. Zaire-Emery	M
13	N. Kante	M
21	L. Hernandez	D
9	M. Thuram	F
19	T. Hernandez	D
22	J. Mateta	F
24	R. Cherki	M
20	D. Doue	F

Paraguay

Formation: 5-4-1 Coach: Gustavo Alfaro

12 Gill

6 Alonso

3 Alderete

15 Gomez

2 Velazquez

4 Caceres

23 Galarza

14 Cubas

8 Gomez

10 Almiron

19 Enciso

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
12	O. Gill	G
4	J. Caceres	D
2	G. Velazquez	D
15	G. Gomez	D
3	O. Alderete	D
6	J. Alonso	D
10	M. Almiron	M
8	D. Gomez	M
14	A. Cubas	M
23	M. Galarza	M
19	J. Enciso	F

Substitutes

1	R. Fernandez	-
22	G. Olveira	G
5	Fabian Balbuena	D
21	G. Avalos	F
9	A. Sanabria	F
24	G. Caballero	F
13	J. Canale	D
25	I. Pitta	F
11	Mauricio	M
7	R. Sosa	F
17	Kaku	M
18	A. Arce	F
20	B. Ojeda	M
16	D. Bobadilla	M
26	A. Maidana	D