Brazil vs Norway Prediction

World Cup · Round of 16

Post on X

Norway

Away

AI call Difficult Brazil win or draw

55%

26%

19%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Brazil vs Norway prediction: Sportiko gives Brazil a 55% chance of winning, Norway 19% and the draw 26%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Home or Away 74%
1st Half Over 0.5 70%

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Match Report

Brazil were eliminated from the World Cup in a dramatic Round of 16 defeat to Norway, despite dominating the statistical picture for much of the contest. A VAR-confirmed penalty in the 12th minute gave Brazil an early opportunity, but Bruno Guimarães squandered it two minutes later, a miss that would prove costly. The first half ended goalless despite Brazil generating 2.73 expected goals to Norway's 0.84, reflecting a familiar story of spurned chances.

Norway's double substitutions at half-time transformed the tie. Erling Haaland, who had been quiet throughout, struck twice in the final ten minutes — a composed finish in the 80th minute and a clinical second in stoppage time — to stun the Seleção. Our pre-match AI model had favoured a Brazil win at 55%, a call that ultimately did not hold up against Norway's ruthless counter-attacking efficiency.

Neymar converted a late penalty deep into added time to reduce the deficit, having earlier been booked, but it was too little too late. Norway, who held 66% possession and limited Brazil to just four shots on target, advance to the quarter-finals.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Matheus Cunha Penalty confirmed

12' 🖵

Bruno Guimarães Missed Penalty

14' ✗

HT 0–0

⇄ 46'

Antonio Nusa ⇄ Andreas Schjelderup

⇄ 46'

Alexander Sørloth ⇄ Oscar Bobb

Matheus Cunha ⇄ Endrick

58' ⇄

⇄ 63'

Julian Ryerson ⇄ Fredrik Aursnes

Rayan ⇄ Danilo Santos

68' ⇄

Gabriel Martinelli ⇄ Neymar

68' ⇄

Bruno Guimarães ⇄ Éderson

79' ⇄

⚽ 0–1 80'

Erling Haaland assist: Andreas Schjelderup

⚽ 0–2 90'

Erling Haaland assist: Andreas Schjelderup

⇄ 90'

David Møller Wolfe ⇄ Leo Østigård

Neymar Yellow Card

90+6' ▮

Neymar Penalty

90+9' ⚽ 1–2

FT 1–2

Brazil

Match Stats

Norway

34% Ball Possession 66%

2.73 Expected Goals (xG) 0.84

14 Total Shots 9

4 Shots on Goal 5

6 Shots off Goal 3

4 Blocked Shots 1

10 Shots insidebox 7

4 Shots outsidebox 2

5 Corner Kicks 5

1 Offsides 1

7 Fouls 6

1 Yellow Cards 0

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 4

329 Total passes 680

279 Passes accurate 617

85% Passes % 91%

0.76 goals_prevented 0.76

Brazil

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
22 Gabriel Martinelli M	7.5	67'	–	–	–	24 (20%)	–
5 Casemiro M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	38 (35%)	2
7 Vinícius Júnior F	7.2	90'	–	–	2	23 (19%)	1
18 Danilo Santos M	7.0	23'	–	–	–	19 (17%)	4
26 Rayan M	7.0	67'	–	–	2	23 (21%)	–
1 Alisson G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	16 (11%)	–
16 Douglas Santos D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	38 (32%)	6
9 Matheus Cunha F	6.9	58'	–	–	1	8 (7%)	–
10 Neymar F	6.9	23'	1	–	2	12 (9%)	–
13 Danilo D	6.6	90'	–	–	1	39 (32%)	5
19 Endrick F	6.5	32'	–	–	1	2 (1%)	–
2 Éderson M	6.3	11'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
4 Marquinhos D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	25 (20%)	1
3 Gabriel Magalhães D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	32 (30%)	2
8 Bruno Guimarães M	6.2	79'	–	–	1	27 (22%)	2

Norway

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Erling Haaland F	9.0	90'	2	–	4	13 (12%)	–
1 Ørjan Nyland G	7.9	90'	–	–	–	41 (26%)	–
5 David Møller Wolfe D	7.3	89'	–	–	–	39 (33%)	2
21 Andreas Schjelderup F	7.3	45'	–	2	1	27 (25%)	1
8 Sander Berge M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	119 (117%)	–
6 Patrick Berg M	7.2	90'	–	–	1	27 (25%)	3
26 Julian Ryerson D	6.9	63'	–	–	–	60 (56%)	2
17 Torbjørn Heggem D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	80 (74%)	2
14 Fredrik Aursnes M	6.7	27'	–	–	–	15 (13%)	2
3 Kristoffer Ajer D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	79 (73%)	1
22 Oscar Bobb M	6.6	45'	–	–	–	24 (23%)	1
20 Antonio Nusa F	6.5	45'	–	–	–	18 (13%)	–
10 Martin Ødegaard M	6.2	90'	–	–	2	109 (101%)	–
7 Alexander Sørloth F	6.2	45'	–	–	–	29 (26%)	–
4 Leo Østigård D	—	1'	–	–	–	–	–

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Confidence Medium (55%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Brazil win or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.4%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

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Brazil

LWWWD

Norway

LWWLW

Match summary

In this World Cup clash, Brazil will face Norway in a neutral setting, making it a level playing field. Brazil's attacking prowess, led by their star forwards, poses a significant threat, as they averaged 2.5 goals per game in the qualifiers. Conversely, Norway, buoyed by a solid defensive record, will rely on their counter-attacking strategy, having conceded only 0.8 goals per game. The effectiveness of Brazil's offensive unit against Norway's organized defense will be key to the outcome of this match. Both teams will aim to capitalize on any defensive lapses to secure a crucial victory in the tournament.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Norway goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	8	5	3	1
1	10	12	5	2
2	10	10	5	2
3	6	6	3	1
4	3	3	1
5	1	1

↑ Brazil goals · most likely 1–1 (12.4%)

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Players in form

Brazil

Vinícius Júnior 4 gls

Matheus Cunha 3 gls

Norway

E. Haaland 7 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

26%

Away Win

19%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

22%

1.5

78%

47%

2.5

53%

70%

3.5

30%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

26%

Away Win

19%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

75% Home (No Draw) 25% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

32% Home Win by 2+ 7% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

55% Home Scores More 26% Equal Goals 19% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

22%

1.5

78%

47%

2.5

53%

70%

3.5

30%

86%

4.5

14%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

26%

23%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.6%	4.6%	3.0%	1.0%	0.2%
1	9.8%	12.4%	5.4%	1.8%	0.4%
2	10.2%	10.0%	4.9%	1.6%	0.4%
3	6.2%	6.1%	3.0%	1.0%	0.2%
4	2.8%	2.8%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

53%

1.5

47%

80%

2.5

20%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Brazil	Draw	Norway
Brazil	35.4%	4.0%	1.3%
Draw	18.7%	15.9%	7.6%
Norway	2.6%	4.0%	10.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

46%

1.5

54%

73%

2.5

27%

90%

3.5

10%

Home Exact Goals

16%

30%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

74%

1.5

26%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

38%

37%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

93%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Brazil vs Norway

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Brazil — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
05 Jul	H Norway	L	1 - 2
29 Jun	H Japan	W	2 - 1
24 Jun	A Scotland	W	0 - 3
20 Jun	H Haiti	W	3 - 0
13 Jun	H Morocco	D	1 - 1

Norway — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
11 Jul	H England	L	1 - 2
05 Jul	A Brazil	W	1 - 2
30 Jun	A Ivory Coast	W	1 - 2
26 Jun	H France	L	1 - 4
23 Jun	H Senegal	W	3 - 2

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Brazil

Coach: Carlo Ancelotti

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Alisson	G
13	Danilo	D
4	Marquinhos	D
3	Gabriel Magalhães	D
16	Douglas Santos	D
26	Rayan	M
8	Bruno Guimarães	M
5	Casemiro	M
22	Gabriel Martinelli	M
9	Matheus Cunha	F
7	Vinícius Júnior	F

Substitutes

19	Endrick	F
18	Danilo Santos	M
10	Neymar	F
2	Éderson	M
12	Weverton	G
23	Ederson	G
6	Alex Sandro	D
14	Bremer	D
15	Léo Pereira	D
24	Roger Ibañez	D
17	Fabinho	M
11	Raphinha	F
21	Luiz Henrique	F
25	Igor Thiago	F

Norway

Coach: Stale Solbakken

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Ørjan Nyland	G
26	Julian Ryerson	D
3	Kristoffer Ajer	D
17	Torbjørn Heggem	D
5	David Møller Wolfe	D
10	Martin Ødegaard	M
8	Sander Berge	M
6	Patrick Berg	M
7	Alexander Sørloth	F
9	Erling Haaland	F
20	Antonio Nusa	F

Substitutes

21	Andreas Schjelderup	F
22	Oscar Bobb	M
14	Fredrik Aursnes	M
4	Leo Østigård	D
12	Sander Tangvik	G
13	Egil Selvik	G
15	Fredrik André Bjørkan	D
24	Sondre Langås	D
25	Henrik Sælebakke Falchener	D
2	Morten Thorsby	M
18	Kristian Thorstvedt	M
19	Thelo Aasgaard	M
23	Jens Petter Hauge	M
11	Jørgen Strand Larsen	F