Floriana vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction

UEFA Champions League · 1st Qualifying Round

Post on X

Shamrock Rovers

Away

AI call Shamrock Rovers or draw

33%

30%

37%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Floriana vs Shamrock Rovers prediction: Sportiko gives Floriana a 33% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers 37% and the draw 30%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Away to Score 74%
2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
Home to Score 72%
1st Half Draw or Away 74%

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Match Report

Floriana secured a commanding 2–0 victory over Shamrock Rovers in the UEFA Champions League first qualifying round, ending the Irish side's European ambitions at the earliest stage.

The Maltese hosts took control just before the break, scoring in first-half stoppage time to lead 1–0 at the interval. Shamrock Rovers' task became significantly harder on 58 minutes when midfielder Matthew Healy received two yellow cards in quick succession, resulting in a red card and leaving the visitors to play the remainder of the match with ten men. Floriana capitalised on the numerical advantage, adding a second goal on 79 minutes to put the tie beyond doubt. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Shamrock Rovers win as the most likely outcome at 37%, a call that proved well wide of the mark.

Despite a flurry of substitutions from Rovers manager Stephen Bradley — including the introductions of Jake Mulraney, Dylan Watts, Michael Noonan, and Graham Burke — the visitors were unable to find a way back into the contest, and Floriana comfortably saw out the win to advance in the competition.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

45+1' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

▮ 58'

Matthew Healy Yellow Card

▮ 58'

Matthew Healy Yellow Card

▮ 58'

Matthew Healy Red Card

⇄ 64'

Jake Mulraney

⇄ 64'

Dylan Watts

66' ⇄

71' ⇄

⇄ 71'

Michael Noonan ⇄ John McGovern

⇄ 72'

Graham Burke

79' ⚽ 2–0

Yellow Card

80' ▮

81' ⇄

Yellow Card

83' ▮

FT 2–0

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Confidence Low (37%)

At a glance

Our lean

Shamrock Rovers or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.1%

Both teams to score

55%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

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Floriana

WLLWD

Shamrock Rovers

WLDDL

Last 1 meetings Floriana · 0W 0D 1L

Match summary

In this UEFA Champions League matchup, Floriana faces Shamrock Rovers. Floriana's recent form shows a mixed bag with a focus on solid defensive organization, while Shamrock Rovers have been more consistent, boasting a strong attacking unit with significant goal contributions from key players. The Rovers have a better track record in European competitions, which might give them an edge. Both teams will need to capitalize on set pieces, as they have shown vulnerabilities in this area. Expect a tactical battle with potential for counter-attacks.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Shamrock Rovers goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	8	7	3	1
1	8	14	8	4	1
2	6	8	5	2	1
3	3	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Floriana goals · most likely 1–1 (14.1%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

37%

Home Win

33%

Draw

30%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

24%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

37%

Home Win

33%

Draw

30%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

53% Away (No Draw) 47% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

18% Away Win by 2+ 15% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

37% Away Scores More 33% Home Scores More 30% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

24%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.8%	8.1%	6.6%	3.0%	1.0%
1	7.6%	14.1%	8.5%	3.9%	1.3%
2	5.9%	8.0%	5.4%	2.5%	0.8%
3	2.5%	3.4%	2.3%	1.1%	0.4%
4	0.8%	1.1%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

32%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

56%

1.5

44%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Floriana	Draw	Shamrock Rovers
Floriana	19.6%	4.5%	2.1%
Draw	12.9%	18.3%	14.0%
Shamrock Rovers	2.0%	4.6%	22.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

86%

2.5

14%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

95%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

26%

35%

24%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

83%

1.5

17%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Floriana vs Shamrock Rovers

0 Floriana Wins

0 Draws

1 Shamrock Rovers Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Jul 2026	Shamrock Rovers	5 - 1	Floriana

Floriana — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Hibernians	W	0 - 4
12 Sep	H Marsaxlokk	L	2 - 5
07 Sep	H Valletta FC	L	0 - 2
02 Sep	H Gzira United	W	4 - 1
29 Aug	A Hamrun Spartans	D	1 - 1

Shamrock Rovers — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Waterford	W	3 - 2
11 Sep	A St Patrick's Athl.	L	2 - 0
04 Sep	H Shelbourne	D	0 - 0
30 Aug	A Derry City	D	3 - 3
27 Aug	A KuPS	L	1 - 0

UEFA Champions League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	1	1	0	0	6	1	+5	3
2	Bayern München	1	1	0	0	5	0	+5	3
3	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	5	1	+4	3
4	Manchester United	1	1	0	0	4	0	+4	3
5	Como	1	1	0	0	4	1	+3	3
6	VfB Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	3	1	+2	3
7	Sporting CP	1	1	0	0	3	1	+2	3
8	Manchester City	1	1	0	0	2	0	+2	3
9	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	3	2	+1	3
10	Lens	1	1	0	0	3	2	+1	3
11	Real Betis	1	1	0	0	3	2	+1	3
12	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	0	0	3	2	+1	3
13	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
14	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
15	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
16	AEK Athens FC	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
17	AS Roma	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
18	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
19	PSV Eindhoven	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
20	Fenerbahçe	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
21	Villarreal	1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0
22	Lille	1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0
23	Slavia Praha	1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0
24	Club Brugge KV	1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0
25	Inter	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
26	Atletico Madrid	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
27	Napoli	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0
28	Lask Linz	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0
29	Viking	1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0
30	Galatasaray	1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0
31	FC Porto	1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0
32	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0
33	Feyenoord	1	0	0	1	1	5	-4	0
34	Sabah FA	1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0
35	Slovan Bratislava	1	0	0	1	1	6	-5	0
36	Bodo/Glimt	1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0

Floriana

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Daniel Portela

23 Cioletti

3 Beerman

4 Kauan

17 Spiteri

21 Lonardelli

14 Kurtalić

12 Vella

9 Dervišagić

10 Varela

11 Murić

19 Jah

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Guilherme Cioletti	G
21	Carlo Zammit Lonardelli	M
17	Owen Spiteri	D
4	Kauan	D
3	Myles Beerman	D
12	Dunstan Vella	M
14	Alen Kurtalić	M
11	Robert Murić	M
10	Fede Varela	M
9	Kenan Dervišagić	F
19	Mustapha Jah	F

Substitutes

80	Pablo Picón	G
6	Amar Drina	D
5	Gerrard Cann Rodgers	D
8	Zachary Scerri	M
16	Chapi Romano	M
20	Emerson Piscopo	M
27	Zyas Vella Newell	M
22	Tomislav Gudelj	F
88	Ange Curtis N Dri	F

Shamrock Rovers

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: Stephen Bradley

1 McGinty

27 O'Sullivan

3 Stevens

5 Grace

19 Brennan

29 Byrne

8 Healy

7 Watts

11 Mulraney

10 Burke

31 Noonan

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Ed McGinty	G
5	Lee Grace	D
3	Enda Stevens	D
27	Cory O'Sullivan	D
11	Jake Mulraney	M
7	Dylan Watts	M
8	Matthew Healy	M
29	Jack Byrne	M
19	Adam Brennan	M
31	Michael Noonan	F
10	Graham Burke	F

Substitutes

25	Lee Steacy	G
41	Alex Noonan	G
17	Luke O'Regan	D
33	Cian Barrett	D
26	John O'Sullivan	M
28	Naj Razi	M
9	Aaron Greene	F
15	Maleace Asamoah	F
38	Max Kovaleskis	F
88	John McGovern	F