Belgium vs Senegal Prediction

World Cup · Round of 32

Post on X

Senegal

Away

Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington

AI call Difficult Belgium win or draw

50%

34%

16%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Belgium vs Senegal prediction: Sportiko gives Belgium a 50% chance of winning, Senegal 16% and the draw 34%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Under 2.5 Goals 73%
Home to Score 70%

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Match Report

Senegal made a strong start at this World Cup Round of 32 clash, with Habib Diarra breaking the deadlock on 25 minutes to send the African side into half-time with a deserved lead. The expected goals figures — 1.80 for Belgium against 3.22 for Senegal — reflected just how dominant Senegal were for large stretches, and Ismaïla Sarr doubled their advantage six minutes into the second half, leaving Belgium in serious trouble.

The Red Devils responded with a flurry of substitutions, and the game turned dramatically in the final stages of normal time. Romelu Lukaku pulled one back on 86 minutes before Youri Tielemans levelled at 89, forcing extra time. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Belgium win as the most likely outcome at 50%, a call that ultimately proved correct.

With the tie still level deep into extra time, Tielemans stepped up to convert a penalty in the 125th minute, completing a remarkable comeback and sending Belgium through to the next round 3–2.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 25'

Habib Diarra

HT 0–1

Charles De Ketelaere ⇄ Romelu Lukaku

46' ⇄

⚽ 0–2 51'

Ismaïla Sarr assist: Moussa Niakhaté

Kevin De Bruyne ⇄ Nicolas Raskin

56' ⇄

Jérémy Doku ⇄ Dodi Lukebakio

56' ⇄

Hans Vanaken ⇄ Diego Moreira

63' ⇄

Brandon Mechele Yellow Card

64' ▮

⇄ 66'

Pape Gueye ⇄ Lamine Camara

▮ 67'

Lamine Camara Yellow Card

⇄ 73'

Iliman Ndiaye ⇄ Ibrahim Mbaye

⇄ 73'

Habib Diarra ⇄ Pape Matar Sarr

Maxim De Cuyper ⇄ Thomas Meunier

78' ⇄

Romelu Lukaku assist: Thomas Meunier

86' ⚽ 1–2

Youri Tielemans assist: Leandro Trossard

89' ⚽ 2–2

Yellow Card

90' ▮

⇄ 93'

Sadio Mané ⇄ Nicolas Jackson

⇄ 93'

Ismail Jakobs ⇄ El Hadji Malick Diouf

⇄ 96'

Idrissa Gana Gueye ⇄ Bara Sapoko Ndiaye

Leandro Trossard ⇄ Amadou Onana

109' ⇄

Youri Tielemans Penalty

120+5' ⚽ 3–2

FT 3–2

Belgium

Match Stats

Senegal

52% Ball Possession 48%

1.80 Expected Goals (xG) 3.22

19 Total Shots 16

5 Shots on Goal 5

9 Shots off Goal 10

5 Blocked Shots 1

11 Shots insidebox 10

8 Shots outsidebox 6

4 Corner Kicks 2

2 Offsides 2

21 Fouls 12

1 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 3

699 Total passes 639

602 Passes accurate 536

86% Passes % 84%

-0.61 goals_prevented -0.61

Belgium

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Youri Tielemans M	8.3	129'	2	–	3	64 (54%)	1
9 Romelu Lukaku F	7.7	84'	1	–	1	13 (10%)	–
10 Leandro Trossard M	7.3	109'	–	1	1	43 (34%)	–
15 Thomas Meunier D	7.0	51'	–	1	1	30 (24%)	–
3 Arthur Theate D	7.0	129'	–	–	–	111 (104%)	–
14 Dodi Lukebakio F	7.0	73'	–	–	2	30 (22%)	–
23 Nicolas Raskin M	7.0	73'	–	–	1	54 (47%)	1
1 Thibaut Courtois G	6.9	129'	–	–	–	33 (29%)	–
11 Jérémy Doku M	6.9	56'	–	–	–	16 (13%)	–
20 Hans Vanaken M	6.9	63'	–	–	–	30 (29%)	1
24 Amadou Onana M	6.7	20'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	1
7 Kevin De Bruyne M	6.7	56'	–	–	2	28 (21%)	–
4 Brandon Mechele D	6.6	129'	–	–	1	130 (121%)	–
21 Timothy Castagne D	6.6	129'	–	–	1	59 (52%)	5
19 Diego Moreira F	6.6	66'	–	–	–	13 (10%)	1
5 Maxim De Cuyper D	6.3	78'	–	–	1	29 (22%)	1
17 Charles De Ketelaere F	6.2	45'	–	–	–	6 (4%)	1

Senegal

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
18 Ismaïla Sarr F	8.3	129'	1	–	4	28 (19%)	–
21 Habib Diarra M	7.5	73'	1	–	2	31 (29%)	1
10 Sadio Mané F	7.0	93'	–	–	1	28 (24%)	1
6 Pathé Ismaël Ciss D	6.9	129'	–	–	–	85 (78%)	–
15 Krépin Diatta D	6.6	129'	–	–	–	81 (72%)	4
19 Moussa Niakhaté D	6.6	129'	–	1	–	80 (76%)	–
5 Idrissa Gana Gueye M	6.6	96'	–	–	2	50 (44%)	–
13 Iliman Ndiaye F	6.6	73'	–	–	1	27 (23%)	1
22 Bara Sapoko Ndiaye M	6.6	33'	–	–	1	12 (11%)	–
26 Pape Gueye M	6.3	66'	–	–	1	33 (27%)	–
11 Nicolas Jackson F	6.3	36'	–	–	–	7 (3%)	–
20 Ibrahim Mbaye F	6.3	56'	–	–	2	18 (17%)	1
25 El Hadji Malick Diouf D	6.2	36'	–	–	–	15 (8%)	–
14 Ismail Jakobs D	6.2	93'	–	–	–	31 (25%)	2
17 Pape Matar Sarr M	6.2	56'	–	–	1	27 (23%)	–
23 Mory Diaw G	6.0	129'	–	–	–	50 (26%)	–
8 Lamine Camara M	5.9	63'	–	–	–	28 (25%)	2

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Confidence Medium (50%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Belgium win or draw

Most likely score

1:0 · 18.7%

Both teams to score

33%

Over 2.5 goals

27%

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Belgium

LWWWD

Senegal

LWLLD

Match summary

Belgium enters the match with a strong attacking line, featuring key players who excel in high-pressure situations. They have consistently shown offensive prowess, averaging 2.5 goals per match in recent qualifiers. Senegal, on the other hand, boasts a solid defensive record, having conceded only 0.6 goals per match in their last ten games. This clash will likely hinge on whether Belgium can break through Senegal's organized defense. Expect a tactical battle, with both teams aiming to control midfield play to dictate the match tempo.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

50%

45%

Draw

34%

45%

Away

16%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Senegal goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	18	8	3	1
1	19	13	3	1
2	12	7	2
3	5	3	1
4	2	1
5

↑ Belgium goals · most likely 1–0 (18.7%)

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Players in form

Belgium

No scorer data.

Senegal

I. Sarr 4 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

34%

Away Win

16%

Both Teams To Score

67% BTTS No 33% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

45%

1.5

55%

73%

2.5

27%

89%

3.5

11%

97%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

34%

Away Win

16%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

76% Home (No Draw) 24% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

24% Home Win by 2+ 4% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

50% Home Scores More 34% Equal Goals 16% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

45%

1.5

55%

73%

2.5

27%

89%

3.5

11%

97%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

67% BTTS No 33% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

18%

27%

28%

16%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	18.1%	8.1%	2.8%	0.5%	0.1%
1	18.7%	13.2%	3.4%	0.7%	0.1%
2	12.3%	7.2%	2.1%	0.4%	0.1%
3	5.0%	2.9%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
4	1.5%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

80%

1.5

20%

95%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

45%

34%

15%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

38%

35%

19%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Belgium	Draw	Senegal
Belgium	30.1%	3.2%	0.6%
Draw	20.0%	25.1%	7.6%
Senegal	1.3%	3.2%	8.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

30%

36%

22%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

89%

1.5

11%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

56%

32%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

77%

0.5

23%

97%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

73%

0.5

27%

96%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Belgium vs Senegal

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Belgium — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
10 Jul	A Spain	L	2 - 1
07 Jul	A USA	W	1 - 4
01 Jul	H Senegal	W	3 - 2
27 Jun	A New Zealand	W	1 - 5
21 Jun	H Iran	D	0 - 0

Senegal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Jul	A Belgium	L	3 - 2
26 Jun	H Iraq	W	5 - 0
23 Jun	A Norway	L	3 - 2
16 Jun	A France	L	3 - 1
09 Jun	A Saudi Arabia	D	0 - 0

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Belgium

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Rudi Garcia

1 Courtois

5 Cuyper

3 Theate

4 Mechele

21 Castagne

20 Vanaken

8 Tielemans

11 Doku

7 Bruyne

10 Trossard

17 Ketelaere

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Thibaut Courtois	G
21	Timothy Castagne	D
4	Brandon Mechele	D
3	Arthur Theate	D
5	Maxim De Cuyper	D
8	Youri Tielemans	M
20	Hans Vanaken	M
10	Leandro Trossard	M
7	Kevin De Bruyne	M
11	Jérémy Doku	M
17	Charles De Ketelaere	F

Substitutes

9	Romelu Lukaku	F
23	Nicolas Raskin	M
14	Dodi Lukebakio	F
19	Diego Moreira	F
15	Thomas Meunier	D
24	Amadou Onana	M
13	Mike Penders	G
12	Senne Lammens	G
16	Koni De Winter	D
18	Joaquin Seys	D
25	Nathan Ngoy	D
6	Axel Witsel	M
22	Alexis Saelemaekers	F
26	Matías Fernández-Pardo	F

Senegal

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Bouna Thiaw Pape

23 Diaw

14 Jakobs

19 Niakhaté

6 Ciss

15 Diatta

26 Gueye

5 Gueye

21 Diarra

10 Mané

18 Sarr

13 Ndiaye

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Mory Diaw	G
15	Krépin Diatta	D
6	Pathé Ismaël Ciss	D
19	Moussa Niakhaté	D
14	Ismail Jakobs	D
21	Habib Diarra	M
5	Idrissa Gana Gueye	M
26	Pape Gueye	M
13	Iliman Ndiaye	F
18	Ismaïla Sarr	F
10	Sadio Mané	F

Substitutes

8	Lamine Camara	M
17	Pape Matar Sarr	M
20	Ibrahim Mbaye	F
25	El Hadji Malick Diouf	D
11	Nicolas Jackson	F
22	Bara Sapoko Ndiaye	M
1	Yehvann Diouf	G
3	Kalidou Koulibaly	D
4	Abdoulaye Seck	D
24	Antoine Mendy	D
2	Mamadou Sarr	D
7	Assane Diao	F
9	Ahmadou Bamba Dieng	F
12	Cherif Ndiaye	F