⚽ New season loading — sign up free for AI predictions on every match →
Login Sign Up

France vs Sweden Prediction

World Cup World Cup · Round of 32
FT
Post on X
France

France

Home
3 : 0
HT 1 - 0
Sweden

Sweden

Away
AI call France to win or draw
69%
23%
8%
Home Win Draw Away Win

France vs Sweden prediction: Sportiko gives France a 69% chance of winning, Sweden 8% and the draw 23%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

Premium picks

Premium
  • Under 3.5 Goals 78%
  • 2nd Half Over 0.5 73%
  • Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Premium members had these picks before kick-off. See Premium picks

Match Report

France advanced to the next round of the World Cup with a commanding 3–0 victory over Sweden, a result that our pre-match AI model had flagged as the most likely outcome at 69%.

The opening half was defined by a moment of controversy, as Mbappé saw a 21st-minute strike ruled out for offside by VAR. He made no mistake just before the break, however, converting to send France into half-time with a slender lead. Bradley Barcola extended the advantage early in the second half, finishing calmly eight minutes after the restart to effectively settle the tie.

Mbappé completed his brace on 74 minutes to put the result beyond any doubt before being withdrawn a minute later, with France already in full control. The statistics underlined their dominance throughout — 62% possession, 12 shots on target to Sweden's two, and an expected goals figure of 3.16 against just 0.56 for the Swedes. Sweden rarely threatened and managed only six total attempts across the ninety minutes, making this a straightforward progression for the French.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Kylian Mbappé Goal Disallowed - offside
21' 🖵
Kylian Mbappé assist: Ousmane Dembélé
45' ⚽ 1–0
HT 1–0
Bradley Barcola assist: Michael Olise
53' ⚽ 2–0
⇄ 66'
Elliot Stroud ⇄ Taha Abdi Ali
⇄ 66'
Lucas Bergvall ⇄ Besfort Zeneli
Kylian Mbappé assist: Michael Olise
74' ⚽ 3–0
Jules Koundé ⇄ Malo Gusto
75' ⇄
Ousmane Dembélé ⇄ Désiré Doué
75' ⇄
Lucas Digne ⇄ Theo Hernández
78' ⇄
⇄ 82'
Daniel Svensson ⇄ Mattias Svanberg
⇄ 82'
Yasin Ayari ⇄ Benjamin Nygren
Kylian Mbappé ⇄ Jean-Philippe Mateta
85' ⇄
Michael Olise ⇄ Rayan Cherki
85' ⇄
⇄ 89'
Alexander Isak ⇄ Gustaf Nilsson
FT 3–0
France

Match Stats

Sweden
62% Ball Possession 38%
3.16 Expected Goals (xG) 0.56
25 Total Shots 6
12 Shots on Goal 2
9 Shots off Goal 4
4 Blocked Shots 0
16 Shots insidebox 5
9 Shots outsidebox 1
9 Corner Kicks 1
3 Offsides 1
13 Fouls 10
Yellow Cards
Red Cards
2 Goalkeeper Saves 9
551 Total passes 343
485 Passes accurate 271
88% Passes % 79%
1.14 goals_prevented 1.14
France
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
10 Kylian Mbappé F 9.6 85' 2 – 5 41 (34%) –
11 Michael Olise M 8.9 85' – 2 5 69 (63%) 1
12 Bradley Barcola M 7.9 93' 1 – 3 30 (26%) 1
8 Aurélien Tchouaméni M 7.7 93' – – 1 67 (62%) 3
7 Ousmane Dembélé M 7.5 75' – 1 1 39 (35%) 1
16 Mike Maignan G 7.2 93' – – – 24 (16%) –
17 William Saliba D 7.2 93' – – – 53 (50%) 1
5 Jules Koundé D 7.0 75' – – – 40 (34%) 2
3 Lucas Digne D 7.0 78' – – 1 41 (31%) 1
19 Theo Hernández D 6.9 15' – – – 11 (11%) –
2 Malo Gusto D 6.7 18' – – – 12 (12%) 1
4 Dayot Upamecano D 6.6 93' – – 1 47 (43%) –
14 Adrien Rabiot M 6.6 93' – – 2 68 (62%) 1
20 Désiré Doué F 6.6 18' – – 1 6 (4%) 1
24 Rayan Cherki M 6.3 8' – – – 2 (1%) –
22 Jean-Philippe Mateta F 6.2 8' – – 1 1 (1%) –
Sweden
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
1 Jacob Widell Zetterström G 8.7 93' – – – 24 (9%) –
17 Viktor Gyökeres F 6.9 93' – – 1 13 (5%) 1
18 Yasin Ayari M 6.7 82' – – – 26 (25%) –
10 Benjamin Nygren F 6.7 11' – – – 11 (10%) 1
19 Mattias Svanberg M 6.7 11' – – 1 5 (5%) –
7 Lucas Bergvall M 6.6 66' – – 1 27 (23%) 1
2 Gustaf Lagerbielke D 6.5 93' – – – 53 (41%) 2
3 Victor Lindelöf D 6.5 93' – – – 44 (42%) 1
26 Taha Abdi Ali M 6.5 27' – – – 7 (7%) –
11 Anthony Elanga M 6.5 93' – – – 33 (27%) –
5 Gabriel Gudmundsson D 6.3 93' – – – 35 (27%) 2
9 Alexander Isak F 6.3 89' – – 2 13 (10%) 1
24 Elliot Stroud M 6.3 66' – – 1 12 (7%) 1
22 Besfort Zeneli M 6.3 27' – – – 15 (12%) 1
8 Daniel Svensson D 5.9 82' – – – 23 (20%) 3
25 Gustaf Nilsson F — 4' – – – 2 (1%) –
Premium

Unlock the AI's full read on France vs Sweden

  • All 70+ probability markets
  • AI Deep-Dive match report
  • Value Edge — model vs market
  • Pick types you choose
Go Premium
Confidence Medium (69%)

At a glance

Our lean
France to win or draw
Premium
Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now
France
LLWWW
Sweden
LDLW

Match summary

In this World Cup clash, France will face Sweden in a highly anticipated encounter. France boasts a strong attacking lineup, highlighted by their depth in talent and recent form, averaging 2.5 goals per match in qualifiers. Conversely, Sweden's defensive organization has been solid, conceding only 0.8 goals per match in their last five outings. Both teams will need to adapt quickly to the neutral environment, making tactical flexibility crucial. Expect a battle of styles, with France pushing for offensive dominance while Sweden aims to capitalize on counter-attacks.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

Premium
Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
69%
45%
Draw
23%
45%
Away
8%
10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Premium
Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Players in form

France
Kylian Mbappé 10 gls
O. Dembélé 6 gls
Sweden

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

Why this pick? · Premium AI Deep-Dive · Premium

You're seeing the free 1X2 result — unlock all 70+ models: goals, both-teams-to-score, the correct-score grid, handicaps, halves & more.

Unlock all models
Premium
Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Head to Head: France vs Sweden

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

France — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
18 Jul H England L 4 - 6
14 Jul H Spain L 0 - 2
09 Jul H Morocco W 2 - 0
04 Jul A Paraguay W 0 - 1
30 Jun H Sweden W 3 - 0

Sweden — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
30 Jun A France L 3 - 0
25 Jun A Japan D 1 - 1
20 Jun A Netherlands L 5 - 1
15 Jun H Tunisia W 5 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Mexico
3 3 0 0 +6 9
2
South Africa
3 1 1 1 -1 4
4
Czechia
3 0 1 2 -4 1

Group B

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Switzerland
3 2 1 0 +4 7
2
Canada
3 1 1 1 +5 4
4
Qatar
3 0 1 2 -8 1

Group C

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Brazil
3 2 1 0 +6 7
2
Morocco
3 2 1 0 +3 7
4
Haiti
3 0 0 3 -6 0

Group D

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
USA
3 2 0 1 +4 6
2
Australia
3 1 1 1 0 4
4
Türkiye
3 1 0 2 -2 3

Group E

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Germany
3 2 0 1 +6 6
2
Ivory Coast
3 2 0 1 +2 6
4
Curaçao
3 0 1 2 -8 1

Group F

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Netherlands
3 2 1 0 +6 7
2
Japan
3 1 2 0 +4 5
4
Tunisia
3 0 0 3 -10 0

Group G

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Belgium
3 1 2 0 +4 5
2
Egypt
3 1 2 0 +2 5
4
New Zealand
3 0 1 2 -6 1

Group H

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Spain
3 2 1 0 +5 7
2
Cape Verde Islands
3 0 3 0 0 3
4
Saudi Arabia
3 0 2 1 -4 2

Group I

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
France
3 3 0 0 +8 9
2
Norway
3 2 0 1 +1 6
4
Iraq
3 0 0 3 -11 0

Group J

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Argentina
3 3 0 0 +7 9
2
Austria
3 1 1 1 0 4
4
Jordan
3 0 0 3 -5 0

Group K

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Colombia
3 2 1 0 +3 7
2
Portugal
3 1 2 0 +5 5
4
Uzbekistan
3 0 0 3 -9 0

Group L

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
England
3 2 1 0 +4 7
2
Croatia
3 2 0 1 0 6
4
Panama
3 0 0 3 -4 0

Group Stage

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Congo DR
3 1 1 1 +1 4
2
Sweden
3 1 1 1 0 4
3
Ghana
3 1 1 1 0 4
4
Ecuador
3 1 1 1 0 4
5
Bosnia & Herzegovina
3 1 1 1 -1 4
6
Algeria
3 1 1 1 -2 4
7
Paraguay
3 1 1 1 -2 4
8
Senegal
3 1 0 2 +2 3
9
Iran
3 0 3 0 0 3
10
South Korea
3 1 0 2 -1 3
11
Scotland
3 1 0 2 -3 3
12
Uruguay
3 0 2 1 -1 2

France

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Didier Deschamps
16 Maignan
3 Digne
17 Saliba
4 Upamecano
5 Koundé
14 Rabiot
8 Tchouaméni
12 Barcola
11 Olise
7 Dembélé
10 Mbappé

Starting XI

# Player Pos
16 Mike Maignan G
5 Jules Koundé D
4 Dayot Upamecano D
17 William Saliba D
3 Lucas Digne D
8 Aurélien Tchouaméni M
14 Adrien Rabiot M
7 Ousmane Dembélé M
11 Michael Olise M
12 Bradley Barcola M
10 Kylian Mbappé F

Substitutes

23 Robin Risser G
1 Brice Samba G
2 Malo Gusto D
21 Lucas Hernández D
26 Maxence Lacroix D
15 Ibrahima Konaté D
19 Theo Hernández D
6 Manu Koné M
24 Rayan Cherki M
25 Maghnes Akliouche M
18 Warren Zaïre-Emery M
13 N'Golo Kanté M
22 Jean-Philippe Mateta F
20 Désiré Doué F
9 Marcus Thuram F

Sweden

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Graham Potter
1 Zetterström
5 Gudmundsson
3 Lindelöf
2 Lagerbielke
8 Svensson
24 Stroud
18 Ayari
7 Bergvall
11 Elanga
9 Isak
17 Gyökeres

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 Jacob Widell Zetterström G
8 Daniel Svensson D
2 Gustaf Lagerbielke D
3 Victor Lindelöf D
5 Gabriel Gudmundsson D
11 Anthony Elanga M
7 Lucas Bergvall M
18 Yasin Ayari M
24 Elliot Stroud M
17 Viktor Gyökeres F
9 Alexander Isak F

Substitutes

22 Besfort Zeneli M
26 Taha Abdi Ali M
23 Kristoffer Nordfeldt G
12 Viktor Johansson G
14 Hjalmar Ekdal D
20 Eric Smith D
15 Carl Starfelt D
6 Herman Johansson M
13 Ken Sema M
16 Jesper Karlström M
19 Mattias Svanberg M
10 Benjamin Nygren F
25 Gustaf Nilsson F
21 Alexander Bernhardsson F

Sportiko Assistant

Features, the contest, or football

Sign up free to chat with the Sportiko Assistant — ask about predictions, the contest, anything football.

Sign up free Already have an account? Log in