Germany vs Paraguay Prediction

World Cup · Round of 32

Post on X

Paraguay

Away

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

AI call Germany to win

66%

24%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Germany vs Paraguay prediction: Sportiko gives Germany a 66% chance of winning, Paraguay 9% and the draw 24%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Match Report

Germany dominated possession and territory throughout but were stunned just before half-time when Julio Enciso broke the deadlock for Paraguay in the 42nd minute. The South Americans had offered little going forward, with Germany's 75% possession and 21 total shots underlining their control, yet Paraguay's clinical finishing gave them a shock lead at the interval.

Germany levelled almost immediately after the restart, with Kai Havertz equalising in the 54th minute. The match grew increasingly tense as both sides pushed for a winner, with a Jonathan Tah goal disallowed by VAR in extra time adding to Germany's frustration. A flurry of yellow cards in the closing stages reflected the fractious nature of the contest, and despite Havertz missing the opening penalty, the shootout proved dramatic — Germany's Jonathan Tah also missed late in the sequence, and Paraguay ultimately converted the decisive kick through José Canale to advance.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Germany victory as most likely at 66%, a call that did not survive the penalty shootout. Paraguay's resilience and organisation on limited resources proved enough to eliminate the tournament favourites.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 42'

Julio Enciso assist: Matías Galarza

HT 0–1

Felix Nmecha ⇄ Leon Goretzka

46' ⇄

Kai Havertz assist: Florian Wirtz

54' ⚽ 1–1

⇄ 55'

Gabriel Ávalos ⇄ Gustavo Caballero

⇄ 57'

Julio Enciso ⇄ Mauricio

Deniz Undav ⇄ Jamal Musiala

63' ⇄

▮ 65'

Andrés Cubas Yellow Card

Aleksandar Pavlović ⇄ Waldemar Anton

79' ⇄

Leroy Sané ⇄ Nick Woltemade

88' ⇄

⇄ 91'

Miguel Almirón ⇄ Gustavo Velázquez

⇄ 99'

Juan Cáceres ⇄ Braian Ojeda

⇄ 99'

Damián Bobadilla ⇄ Antonio Sanabria

Jonathan Tah Goal Disallowed - Foul

102' 🖵

▮ 105'

Yellow Card

105+1' ▮

Kai Havertz Yellow Card

106' ▮

Florian Wirtz ⇄ Nadiem Amiri

110' ⇄

Antonio Rüdiger ⇄ Malick Thiaw

110' ⇄

Jamal Musiala Yellow Card

115' ▮

▮ 117'

Matías Galarza Yellow Card

Kai Havertz Missed Penalty

120+1' ✗

⚽ 1–2 120+1'

Mauricio Penalty

Joshua Kimmich Penalty

120+2' ⚽ 2–2

⚽ 2–3 120+2'

Gustavo Gómez Penalty

⇄ 120+2'

Junior Alonso ⇄ Fabián Balbuena

Jamal Musiala Penalty

120+3' ⚽ 3–3

⚽ 3–4 120+3'

Matías Galarza Penalty

Nick Woltemade Missed Penalty

120+4' ✗

✗ 120+4'

Antonio Sanabria Missed Penalty

Nadiem Amiri Penalty

120+5' ⚽ 4–4

✗ 120+5'

Fabián Balbuena Missed Penalty

Jonathan Tah Missed Penalty

120+6' ✗

⚽ 4–5 120+6'

José Canale Penalty

FT 1–1

Germany

Match Stats

Paraguay

75% Ball Possession 25%

1.49 Expected Goals (xG) 0.42

21 Total Shots 7

6 Shots on Goal 3

7 Shots off Goal 2

8 Blocked Shots 2

11 Shots insidebox 6

10 Shots outsidebox 1

16 Corner Kicks 6

4 Offsides 1

18 Fouls 12

2 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 6

799 Total passes 257

719 Passes accurate 161

90% Passes % 63%

0.59 goals_prevented 0.59

Germany

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
17 Florian Wirtz M	8.3	110'	–	1	1	80 (62%)	2
7 Kai Havertz F	7.5	120'	1	–	3	36 (31%)	–
6 Joshua Kimmich D	7.3	120'	–	–	3	141 (129%)	1
4 Jonathan Tah D	7.3	120'	–	–	1	117 (114%)	–
2 Antonio Rüdiger D	7.3	110'	–	–	–	123 (114%)	–
18 Nathaniel Brown D	7.0	120'	–	–	–	49 (43%)	5
1 Manuel Neuer G	6.9	120'	–	–	–	27 (27%)	–
11 Nick Woltemade F	6.9	32'	–	–	1	2 (2%)	1
24 Malick Thiaw D	6.7	10'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	–
20 Nadiem Amiri M	6.7	10'	–	–	1	5 (5%)	1
10 Jamal Musiala M	6.6	57'	–	–	–	25 (24%)	1
3 Waldemar Anton D	6.6	41'	–	–	1	24 (22%)	–
5 Aleksandar Pavlović M	6.5	79'	–	–	–	74 (68%)	–
23 Felix Nmecha M	6.5	45'	–	–	–	14 (9%)	1
8 Leon Goretzka M	6.5	75'	–	–	1	16 (11%)	1
19 Leroy Sané M	6.3	88'	–	–	–	54 (48%)	1
26 Deniz Undav F	6.3	63'	–	–	1	5 (3%)	–

Paraguay

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
12 Orlando Gill G	8.2	120'	–	–	–	45 (12%)	–
19 Julio Enciso F	7.6	57'	1	–	2	5 (5%)	–
13 José Canale D	7.5	120'	–	–	–	10 (5%)	5
10 Miguel Almirón M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	22 (16%)	2
11 Mauricio M	7.2	63'	–	–	–	16 (13%)	2
16 Damián Bobadilla M	7.0	99'	–	–	–	17 (13%)	5
4 Juan Cáceres D	6.9	99'	–	–	–	23 (17%)	2
9 Antonio Sanabria F	6.9	21'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	2
23 Matías Galarza M	6.9	120'	–	1	–	24 (13%)	4
21 Gabriel Ávalos F	6.7	55'	–	–	–	12 (6%)	–
14 Andrés Cubas M	6.6	120'	–	–	–	20 (15%)	5
2 Gustavo Velázquez D	6.6	30'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
24 Gustavo Caballero F	6.6	65'	–	–	1	9 (7%)	1
15 Gustavo Gómez D	6.5	120'	–	–	1	15 (11%)	1
6 Junior Alonso D	6.3	119'	–	–	1	25 (17%)	4
20 Braian Ojeda M	6.3	21'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	–
5 Fabián Balbuena D	—	1'	–	–	–	–	–

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Confidence Medium (66%)

At a glance

Our lean

Germany to win

Most likely score

1:0 · 16.9%

Both teams to score

35%

Over 2.5 goals

40%

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Germany

DLWWL

Paraguay

LDDWL

Match summary

Germany faces Paraguay in a World Cup matchup that showcases contrasting playing styles. Germany's tactical discipline and high pressing are highlighted by their exceptional possession stats and an average of 15 shots per game in qualifying. Paraguay, known for their solid defensive structure and counter-attacking prowess, will need to capitalize on set pieces, having scored 30% of their goals from such situations. Both teams will be eager to secure a victory, making it crucial for Paraguay to maintain defensive resilience against Germany's attacking depth. The outcome may hinge on Paraguay's ability to disrupt Germany's rhythm while exploiting any defensive lapses.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

66%

45%

Draw

24%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Paraguay goals →

	0	1	2
0	11	4	1
1	17	11	2
2	16	8	2
3	9	5	1
4	4	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Germany goals · most likely 1–0 (16.9%)

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Players in form

Germany

D. Undav 3 gls

Paraguay

No scorer data.

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

24%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

65% BTTS No 35% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

81%

3.5

19%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

66%

Draw

24%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

88% Home (No Draw) 12% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

40% Home Win by 2+ 2% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

66% Home Scores More 24% Equal Goals 9% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

81%

3.5

19%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

65% BTTS No 35% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

21%

28%

20%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.5%	4.1%	1.4%	0.2%	0.0%
1	16.9%	10.6%	2.5%	0.4%	0.1%
2	16.0%	8.3%	2.2%	0.4%	0.1%
3	9.5%	4.9%	1.3%	0.2%	0.0%
4	4.2%	2.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

36%

35%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

30%

34%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Germany	Draw	Paraguay
Germany	43.1%	2.6%	0.4%
Draw	22.8%	17.3%	4.2%
Paraguay	1.8%	2.8%	5.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

48%

1.5

52%

75%

2.5

25%

90%

3.5

10%

Home Exact Goals

17%

30%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

59%

31%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

79%

0.5

21%

98%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

76%

0.5

24%

97%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Germany vs Paraguay

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Germany — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
29 Jun	H Paraguay	D	1 - 1
25 Jun	A Ecuador	L	2 - 1
20 Jun	H Ivory Coast	W	2 - 1
14 Jun	H Curaçao	W	7 - 1
05 Jul	A Spain	L	2 - 1

Paraguay — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
04 Jul	H France	L	0 - 1
29 Jun	A Germany	D	1 - 1
26 Jun	H Australia	D	0 - 0
20 Jun	A Türkiye	W	0 - 1
13 Jun	A USA	L	4 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Germany

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Julian Nagelsmann

1 Neuer

18 Brown

2 Rüdiger

4 Tah

6 Kimmich

17 Wirtz

5 Pavlović

23 Nmecha

19 Sané

26 Undav

7 Havertz

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Manuel Neuer	G
6	Joshua Kimmich	D
4	Jonathan Tah	D
2	Antonio Rüdiger	D
18	Nathaniel Brown	D
19	Leroy Sané	M
23	Felix Nmecha	M
5	Aleksandar Pavlović	M
17	Florian Wirtz	M
7	Kai Havertz	F
26	Deniz Undav	F

Substitutes

8	Leon Goretzka	M
10	Jamal Musiala	M
3	Waldemar Anton	D
11	Nick Woltemade	F
21	Alexander Nübel	G
12	Oliver Baumann	G
22	David Raum	D
24	Malick Thiaw	D
13	Pascal Groß	M
16	Angelo Stiller	M
25	Assan Ouédraogo	M
9	Jamie Leweling	F
20	Nadiem Amiri	M
14	Maximilian Beier	F

Paraguay

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Gustavo Alfaro

12 Gill

6 Alonso

13 Canale

15 Gómez

4 Cáceres

23 Galarza

14 Cubas

16 Bobadilla

10 Almirón

19 Enciso

21 Ávalos

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
12	Orlando Gill	G
4	Juan Cáceres	D
15	Gustavo Gómez	D
13	José Canale	D
6	Junior Alonso	D
10	Miguel Almirón	M
16	Damián Bobadilla	M
14	Andrés Cubas	M
23	Matías Galarza	M
21	Gabriel Ávalos	F
19	Julio Enciso	F

Substitutes

24	Gustavo Caballero	F
11	Mauricio	M
22	Gastón Olveira	G
1	Roberto Fernández	G
2	Gustavo Velázquez	D
3	Omar Alderete	D
5	Fabián Balbuena	D
26	Alexandro Maidana	D
20	Braian Ojeda	M
17	Alejandro Romero	M
7	Ramón Sosa	F
9	Antonio Sanabria	F
18	Alex Arce	F
25	Isidro Pitta	F