Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki Prediction

Veikkausliiga · Regular Season - 12

Post on X

HJK Helsinki

Away

AI call Too close to call

33%

35%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki prediction: Sportiko gives Mariehamn a 33% chance of winning, HJK Helsinki 35% and the draw 33%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Away to Score 68%
1st Half Draw or Away 75%

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 31'

HT 0–1

46' ⇄

Yellow Card

55' ▮

⚽ 0–2 64'

⚽ 0–3 66'

⇄ 66'

70' ⇄

⇄ 74'

⇄ 80'

▮ 81'

Yellow Card

84' ⇄

⚽ 0–4 86'

Yellow Card

90+2' ▮

FT 0–4

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Confidence Low (35%)

At a glance

Our lean

Too close to call

Most likely score

1:1 · 15.2%

Both teams to score

47%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

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Mariehamn

LWLWW

HJK Helsinki

DDWLW

Match summary

Mariehamn will face HJK Helsinki in a Veikkausliiga clash on June 23, 2026. HJK, traditionally a strong side, has been dominant in recent encounters, boasting a solid win rate against Mariehamn. Key players to watch include HJK’s prolific scorer, who has consistently contributed to their attacking prowess, and Mariehamn's defense, which will need to tighten up to prevent goals. Statistical trends suggest that HJK excels in away matches, making them favorites despite the venue. This match will be crucial for Mariehamn to gain points against a top-tier opponent.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

33%

10%

Draw

33%

45%

Away

35%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

HJK Helsinki goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	13	11	7	3	1
1	10	15	8	3	1
2	6	7	4	2
3	2	3	1	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Mariehamn goals · most likely 1–1 (15.1%)

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Players in form

Mariehamn

No scorer data.

HJK Helsinki

M. Borchers 4 gls

T. Pukki 3 gls

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Match Result

Away Win

35%

Home Win

33%

Draw

33%

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

33%

1.5

67%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

35%

Home Win

33%

Draw

33%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

51% Away (No Draw) 49% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

15% Away Win by 2+ 14% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

35% Away Scores More 33% Home Scores More 33% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

33%

1.5

67%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

21%

29%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.6%	10.6%	7.0%	2.6%	0.7%
1	10.1%	15.2%	7.6%	2.9%	0.8%
2	6.5%	7.3%	4.1%	1.6%	0.4%
3	2.4%	2.7%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.6%	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

38%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Mariehamn	Draw	HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn	19.0%	4.3%	1.6%
Draw	13.3%	21.8%	13.9%
HJK Helsinki	1.6%	4.3%	20.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

70%

1.5

30%

90%

2.5

10%

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

34%

37%

20%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

32%

37%

21%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Mariehamn — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A SJK	L	2 - 1
12 Sep	H Turku PS	W	1 - 0
08 Sep	A Lahti	L	2 - 1
31 Aug	H FF Jaro	W	2 - 0
23 Aug	A KuPS	W	2 - 4

HJK Helsinki — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Gnistan	D	1 - 1
13 Sep	A KuPS	D	0 - 0
09 Sep	H Inter Turku	W	2 - 1
05 Sep	A Inter Turku	L	1 - 0
31 Aug	A Ilves	W	1 - 2

Veikkausliiga Standings

Champion Additional

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	25	13	9	3	41	24	+17	48
2	Inter Turku	25	13	9	3	32	18	+14	48
3	HJK Helsinki	25	12	6	7	39	29	+10	42
4	Gnistan	25	11	8	6	40	32	+8	41
5	VPS	25	10	6	9	30	25	+5	36
6	AC Oulu	25	10	4	11	26	29	-3	34

Relegation Play-Off

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lahti	25	10	6	9	30	24	+6	36
2	Ilves	25	10	4	11	42	38	+4	34
3	Turku PS	25	8	8	9	28	27	+1	32
4	SJK	25	5	9	11	28	35	-7	24
5	Mariehamn	25	4	5	16	20	47	-27	17
6	FF Jaro	25	3	8	14	20	48	-28	17

Mariehamn

Formation: 4-4-1-1 Coach: Jimmy Wargh

1 Lund

31 Ngulube

2 Nurmi

38 Amankwah

28 Nissinen

16 Huttunen

20 Patut

10 Dahlström

64 Hyvonen

11 Pearce

7 Larsson

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Kevin Lund	G
28	Jiri Nissinen	D
38	Yeboah Amankwah	D
2	Noah Nurmi	D
31	Samson Ngulube	D
64	Marlo Hyvonen	F
10	Sebastian Dahlström	M
20	Emmanuel Patut	M
16	Anttoni Huttunen	M
11	Luke Pearce	F
7	Adam Larsson	F

Substitutes

5	Tuomas Koivisto	D
9	Wille Nuñez	F
6	Nikolaos Dosis	M
32	Matias Riikonen	G
3	Aaro Soiniemi	D
4	Pontus Lindgren	D
18	Adam Stroud	M
43	Leo Andersson	F
21	Arvid Lundberg	F

HJK Helsinki

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Joonas Rantanen

1 Öst

14 Montano

3 Cissokho

6 Tikkanen

28 Ylitolva

15 Kallinen

10 Lingman

9 Borchers

4 Ring

22 Möller

20 Pukki

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Jesse Öst	G
28	Miska Ylitolva	D
6	Ville Tikkanen	D
3	Till Cissokho	D
14	Leonel Montano	D
10	Lucas Lingman	M
15	Jere Kallinen	M
22	Liam Möller	M
4	Alexander Ring	M
9	Mads Borchers	F
20	Teemu Pukki	F

Substitutes

26	Lassi Lappalainen	M
62	Leevi Palmula	M
44	Matej Marković	G
31	Mihailo Bogićević	D
24	Emil Levealahti	D
2	Brooklyn Lyons-Foster	D
18	Toivo Mero	M
7	Alfie Cicale	M
17	Martin Kirilov	M