Dundalk vs Waterford Prediction
FT
Oriel Park, Dundalk
AI call
Dundalk to win
85%
13%
2%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Dundalk vs Waterford prediction: Sportiko gives Dundalk a 85% chance of winning, Waterford 2% and the draw 13%. Last updated 31 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Premium picks
Premium- Home 2H Over 0.5 76%
- Home to Score 2+ 72%
- 1st Half Over 0.5 72%
- Under 3.5 Goals 71%
Premium members had these picks before kick-off.
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Timeline
Eoin Kenny
assist: Daryl Horgan
10'
⚽
1–0
Harry Groome
assist: Daryl Horgan
29'
⚽
2–0
⚽
2–1
45'
Tom Lonergan
assist: Benny Couto
HT 2–1
▮
49'
Luke Heeney
Yellow Card
⇄
56'
Dean McMenamy
⇄ Jørgen Voilås
⇄
56'
Luke Heeney
⇄ Samuel Glenfield
Bobby Burns
Yellow Card
62'
▮
⚽
2–2
63'
Tom Lonergan
Penalty
Harry Groome
⇄ Shane Tracey
68'
⇄
Aodh Dervin
⇄ M. Animasahun
74'
⇄
⇄
80'
Jordan Houston
⇄ Trae Coyle
▮
81'
Will Johnson
Yellow Card
⚽
2–3
85'
John Mahon
FT 2–3
Dundalk
Match Stats
Waterford
64%
Ball Possession
36%
1.47
Expected Goals (xG)
2.15
23
Total Shots
20
7
Shots on Goal
7
8
Shots off Goal
7
8
Blocked Shots
6
12
Shots insidebox
16
11
Shots outsidebox
4
6
Corner Kicks
3
2
Offsides
3
8
Fouls
17
1
Yellow Cards
2
Red Cards
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5
397
Total passes
215
280
Passes accurate
102
71%
Passes %
47%
-0.38
goals_prevented
-0.38
Dundalk
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Daryl Horgan M | 8.3 | 90' | – | 2 | 1 | 40 (27%) | – |
| 8 Harry Groome M | 8.0 | 68' | 1 | – | 1 | 21 (19%) | 2 |
| 18 Keith Buckley D | 7.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 62 (46%) | 2 |
| 16 Eoin Kenny M | 7.3 | 90' | 1 | – | 8 | 33 (23%) | 3 |
| 24 Robert Cornwall D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 26 (19%) | 1 |
| 17 Shane Tracey M | 6.6 | 22' | – | – | – | 9 (4%) | 4 |
| 4 M. Animasahun D | 6.5 | 16' | – | – | – | 4 (4%) | – |
| 6 Aodh Dervin M | 6.3 | 74' | – | – | 2 | 35 (31%) | – |
| 11 Ronan Teahan M | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 23 (16%) | – |
| 9 Gbemi Arubi F | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 25 (21%) | – |
| 22 Tyreke Wilson D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 42 (34%) | – |
| 3 Bobby Burns D | 6.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 36 (26%) | 2 |
| 1 Enda Minogue G | 5.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 41 (10%) | – |
Waterford
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Tom Lonergan F | 8.7 | 90' | 2 | – | 5 | 22 (11%) | 2 |
| 5 John Mahon D | 8.3 | 90' | 1 | – | 2 | 11 (4%) | 2 |
| 4 Will Johnson M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 19 (9%) | 3 |
| 13 Kevin Long D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 18 (12%) | 1 |
| 27 Dean McMenamy M | 6.9 | 56' | – | – | 1 | 8 (4%) | 3 |
| 1 Stephen McMullan G | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 38 (11%) | – |
| 19 Samuel Glenfield M | 6.5 | 34' | – | – | – | 6 (3%) | 2 |
| 16 Hayden Cann D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 17 (10%) | 1 |
| 3 Benny Couto D | 6.3 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 20 (12%) | 4 |
| 2 Jordan Houston D | 6.3 | 80' | – | – | 1 | 22 (8%) | 3 |
| 9 Pádraig Amond F | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 14 (6%) | – |
| 11 Trae Coyle F | 6.3 | 10' | – | – | – | 4 (2%) | 1 |
| 15 Luke Heeney M | 6.0 | 56' | – | – | – | 11 (7%) | – |
| 20 Jørgen Voilås F | 5.9 | 34' | – | – | 1 | 5 (3%) | – |
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Confidence
High (85%)
At a glance
Our lean
Dundalk to win
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Dundalk
LLDLW
Waterford
LDDWW
Last 2 meetings
Dundalk · 1W 1D 0L
Match summary
Dundalk enters this Premier Division match against Waterford with a favorable recent form, having won three of their last five league matches. They boast a strong home record, with an average of 2.1 goals scored per game at home this season. Waterford, on the other hand, struggles defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game away. Historically, Dundalk has an edge in head-to-head encounters, winning 60% of their last ten meetings. Expect Dundalk to leverage their attacking capabilities against Waterford's leaky defense.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
85%
45%
Draw
13%
45%
Away
2%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Dundalk
D. Horgan
10 gls
G. Arubi
7 gls
Waterford
T. Lonergan
14 gls
P. Amond
9 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Dundalk vs Waterford
1
Dundalk Wins
1
Draws
0
Waterford Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep 2026 | Waterford | 1 - 1 | Dundalk |
| 13 Mar 2026 | Dundalk | 5 - 0 | Waterford |
Dundalk — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | H Shelbourne | L | 2 - 3 |
| 14 Sep | H St Patrick's Athl. | L | 0 - 4 |
| 11 Sep | A Waterford | D | 1 - 1 |
| 06 Sep | A Derry City | L | 4 - 2 |
| 28 Aug | A Drogheda United | W | 2 - 3 |
Waterford — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep | A Shamrock Rovers | L | 3 - 2 |
| 14 Sep | H Derry City | D | 2 - 2 |
| 11 Sep | H Dundalk | D | 1 - 1 |
| 04 Sep | H Sligo Rovers | W | 3 - 0 |
| 28 Aug | A St Patrick's Athl. | W | 0 - 2 |
Premier Division Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
St Patrick's Athl.
|
32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 59 |
| 2 |
Shamrock Rovers
|
31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 59 |
| 3 |
Bohemians
|
31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 56 |
| 4 |
Derry City
|
32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 45 | 42 | +3 | 41 |
| 5 |
Dundalk
|
32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 41 |
| 6 |
Shelbourne
|
31 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 39 |
| 7 |
Galway United
|
31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 41 | 47 | -6 | 37 |
| 8 |
Waterford
|
32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 |
| 9 |
Drogheda United
|
32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 34 |
| 10 |
Sligo Rovers
|
32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
Dundalk
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Ciaran Kilduff
1
Minogue
22
Wilson
3
Burns
24
Cornwall
18
Buckley
8
Groome
6
Dervin
7
Horgan
11
Teahan
16
Kenny
9
Arubi
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | E. Minogue | G |
| 18 | K. Buckley | D |
| 24 | R. Cornwall | D |
| 3 | B. Burns | D |
| 22 | T. Wilson | D |
| 6 | A. Dervin | M |
| 8 | H. Groome | M |
| 16 | E. Kenny | M |
| 11 | R. Teahan | M |
| 7 | D. Horgan | M |
| 9 | G. Arubi | F |
Substitutes
| 13 | P. Cherrie | G |
| 12 | L. Mulligan | D |
| 17 | S. Tracey | M |
| 10 | L. Gaxha | F |
| 4 | M. Animasahun | D |
| 19 | S. Spaight | D |
| 29 | T. Molloy | F |
| 23 | A. M. Keogh | M |
Waterford
Formation: 5-3-2
Coach: Graham Coughlan
1
McMullan
3
Couto
13
Long
5
Mahon
16
Cann
2
Houston
27
McMenamy
4
Johnson
15
Heeney
9
Amond
18
Lonergan
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | S. McMullan | G |
| 2 | J. Houston | D |
| 16 | H. Cann | D |
| 5 | J. Mahon | D |
| 13 | K. Long | D |
| 3 | B. Couto | D |
| 15 | L. Heeney | M |
| 4 | W. Johnson | - |
| 27 | D. McMenamy | M |
| 18 | T. Lonergan | F |
| 9 | P. Amond | F |
Substitutes
| 21 | A. Doherty | G |
| 11 | T. Coyle | F |
| 20 | J. Voilas | F |
| 19 | S. Glenfield | M |
| 32 | G. Amedu | D |
| 17 | J. Faria | M |
| 10 | C. Noonan | M |
| 6 | C. Barrett | D |
| 22 | R. Mansfield | F |