New Zealand vs Belgium Prediction

World Cup · Group Stage - 3

Post on X

Belgium

Away

BC Place, Vancouver, British Columbia

AI call Belgium to win or draw

20%

76%

Home Win Draw Away Win

New Zealand vs Belgium prediction: Sportiko gives New Zealand a 4% chance of winning, Belgium 76% and the draw 20%. Last updated 20 Jul 2026, 15:55.

Premium picks

Premium

Not Both Teams to Score 77%

Premium members had these picks before kick-off. See Premium picks

Match Report

Belgium cruised to a commanding 5–1 victory over New Zealand in their World Cup group stage finale, with the result never seriously in doubt after Leandro Trossard broke the deadlock on 28 minutes. The All Whites entered the break trailing by a single goal but were outplayed throughout, with Belgium's expected goals figure of 3.59 against New Zealand's 0.24 underlining the gulf between the sides.

Trossard doubled the advantage just five minutes into the second half, and Kevin De Bruyne added a third on 66 minutes to effectively end the contest. Both were withdrawn shortly after, their work done. New Zealand grabbed a consolation through Elijah Just on 84 minutes, but Belgium responded immediately as Romelu Lukaku restored the four-goal margin a minute later, before Alexis Saelemaekers rounded off the scoring deep in stoppage time.

New Zealand finished with just six total shots to Belgium's 34, and two shots on target to Belgium's nine, reflecting their limited threat throughout. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Belgium win at 76%, a call that proved well-founded as the Red Devils delivered a dominant performance.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 28'

Leandro Trossard

HT 0–1

Marko Stamenić Yellow Card

46' ▮

Sarpreet Singh ⇄ Jesse Randall

46' ⇄

Ryan Thomas ⇄ Benjamin Old

46' ⇄

⚽ 0–2 50'

Leandro Trossard assist: Hans Vanaken

Elijah Just Yellow Card

56' ▮

⇄ 56'

Jérémy Doku ⇄ Matías Fernández-Pardo

Tim Payne ⇄ Michael Boxall

64' ⇄

Joe Bell ⇄ Callum McCowatt

64' ⇄

⚽ 0–3 66'

Kevin De Bruyne

⇄ 72'

Leandro Trossard ⇄ Alexis Saelemaekers

⇄ 72'

Kevin De Bruyne ⇄ Amadou Onana

Liberato Cacace ⇄ Francis De Vries

79' ⇄

Elijah Just

84' ⚽ 1–3

⇄ 85'

Charles De Ketelaere ⇄ Romelu Lukaku

⇄ 85'

Youri Tielemans ⇄ Nicolas Raskin

⚽ 1–4 86'

Romelu Lukaku assist: Nicolas Raskin

⚽ 1–5 90+4'

Alexis Saelemaekers assist: Romelu Lukaku

FT 1–5

New Zealand

Match Stats

Belgium

45% Ball Possession 55%

0.24 Expected Goals (xG) 3.59

6 Total Shots 34

2 Shots on Goal 9

3 Shots off Goal 13

1 Blocked Shots 12

3 Shots insidebox 22

3 Shots outsidebox 12

5 Corner Kicks 8

1 Offsides 1

10 Fouls 7

2 Yellow Cards 0

Red Cards

5 Goalkeeper Saves 1

417 Total passes 521

352 Passes accurate 459

84% Passes % 88%

-0.79 goals_prevented -0.79

New Zealand

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
11 Elijah Just M	7.3	93'	1	–	2	40 (32%)	2
10 Sarpreet Singh M	7.2	45'	–	–	–	15 (10%)	–
8 Marko Stamenić M	6.9	93'	–	–	–	57 (55%)	–
23 Ryan Thomas M	6.7	45'	–	–	–	13 (10%)	2
19 Benjamin Old F	6.7	48'	–	–	–	11 (8%)	–
21 Jesse Randall F	6.7	48'	–	–	1	13 (10%)	–
13 Liberato Cacace D	6.6	79'	–	–	–	30 (24%)	2
9 Chris Wood F	6.6	93'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	1
6 Joe Bell M	6.5	64'	–	–	–	38 (32%)	–
3 Francis De Vries D	6.5	14'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	–
16 Finn Surman D	6.3	93'	–	–	–	50 (45%)	1
2 Tim Payne D	6.2	64'	–	–	1	26 (19%)	1
20 Callum McCowatt M	6.2	29'	–	–	–	20 (18%)	–
4 Tyler Bindon D	6.2	93'	–	–	1	48 (42%)	1
5 Michael Boxall D	6.0	29'	–	–	–	16 (16%)	–
1 Max Crocombe G	5.7	93'	–	–	–	27 (20%)	–

Belgium

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
7 Kevin De Bruyne M	8.9	72'	1	–	4	47 (41%)	1
10 Leandro Trossard M	8.3	72'	2	–	3	30 (26%)	1
23 Nicolas Raskin M	7.3	8'	–	1	–	5 (5%)	1
9 Romelu Lukaku F	7.2	8'	1	–	1	2 (2%)	–
4 Brandon Mechele D	7.0	93'	–	–	–	58 (54%)	1
8 Youri Tielemans M	7.0	85'	–	–	1	56 (53%)	–
11 Jérémy Doku M	6.9	56'	–	–	2	25 (19%)	–
5 Maxim De Cuyper D	6.9	93'	–	–	2	58 (51%)	1
22 Alexis Saelemaekers F	6.9	21'	–	–	1	16 (13%)	1
26 Matías Fernández-Pardo F	6.9	37'	–	–	1	10 (9%)	2
21 Timothy Castagne D	6.6	93'	–	–	1	44 (41%)	1
3 Arthur Theate D	6.6	93'	–	–	4	45 (42%)	1
1 Thibaut Courtois G	6.3	93'	–	–	–	31 (22%)	–
24 Amadou Onana M	6.3	21'	–	–	1	10 (9%)	1
20 Hans Vanaken M	6.3	93'	–	1	–	50 (49%)	–
17 Charles De Ketelaere F	6.2	85'	–	–	1	34 (23%)	2

Premium

Unlock the AI's full read on New Zealand vs Belgium

All 70+ probability markets
AI Deep-Dive match report
Value Edge — model vs market
Pick types you choose

Go Premium

Confidence High (76%)

At a glance

Our lean

Belgium to win or draw

Most likely score

0:2 · 20.3%

Both teams to score

23%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

New Zealand

LLDLD

Belgium

LWWWD

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match on June 27, 2026, New Zealand faces Belgium, a clash between a traditionally strong European side and a developing football nation. Belgium, ranked in the top 10 globally, boasts a wealth of talent, including experienced players like Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku, who can exploit defensive weaknesses. Conversely, New Zealand's gameplay typically emphasizes physicality and set pieces, but they lack the depth and technical prowess of their opponents. Historically, Belgium has maintained a strong record against lower-ranked teams, suggesting they will be favored to secure a victory. However, New Zealand's resilience and home advantage could lead to a competitive encounter.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

10%

Draw

20%

45%

Away

76%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Belgium goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	12	20	20	13	6	2
1	2	7	6	4	2	1
2		1	1	1
3
4
5

↑ New Zealand goals · most likely 0–2 (20.3%)

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

Why this pick? · Premium AI Deep-Dive · Premium

You're seeing the free 1X2 result — unlock all 70+ models: goals, both-teams-to-score, the correct-score grid, handicaps, halves & more.

Unlock all models

Match Result

Away Win

76%

Draw

20%

Home Win

Both Teams To Score

77% BTTS No 23% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

34%

1.5

66%

62%

2.5

38%

83%

3.5

17%

94%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

Premium

Home or Away

Premium

Home or Draw

Premium

Match Result

Away Win

76%

Draw

20%

Home Win

Double Chance

Draw or Away

Premium

Home or Away

Premium

Home or Draw

Premium

Winner

95% Away (No Draw) 5% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

49% Away Win by 2+ 1% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

76% Away Scores More 20% Equal Goals 4% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

34%

1.5

66%

62%

2.5

38%

83%

3.5

17%

94%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

77% BTTS No 23% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

23%

28%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

Premium

2-4 Goals

Premium

1-2 Goals

Premium

2-3 Goals

Premium

3-5 Goals

Premium

4-6 Goals

Premium

Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

Premium

BTTS & Under 3.5

Premium

BTTS & Over 3.5

Premium

Result + Goals

Away Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Away Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Home Win & Under 2.5

Premium

Home Win & Over 2.5

Premium

Draw & Over 2.5

Premium

Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

Premium

Home/Away & Over 2.5

Premium

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

Premium

Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.7%	20.2%	20.3%	13.1%	6.3%
1	2.5%	7.1%	6.1%	3.9%	1.9%
2	0.5%	1.0%	0.9%	0.6%	0.3%
3	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

Premium

1st Half Draw

Premium

1st Half Home Win

Premium

1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

Premium

1st Half Home or Away

Premium

1st Half Home or Draw

Premium

1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

Premium

1h Exact Goals

37%

36%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

Premium

2nd Half Draw

Premium

2nd Half Home Win

Premium

2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

Premium

2nd Half Home or Away

Premium

2nd Half Home or Draw

Premium

2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

Premium

2h Exact Goals

30%

35%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	New Zealand	Draw	Belgium
New Zealand	2.3%	1.7%	1.3%
Draw	2.1%	15.2%	24.9%
Belgium	0.1%	1.5%	50.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

74%

22%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

15%

0.5

85%

43%

1.5

57%

71%

2.5

29%

88%

3.5

12%

Away Exact Goals

15%

28%

27%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

78%

1.5

22%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

71%

1.5

29%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

Premium

Away +1 Win

Premium

Home +2 Win

Premium

Away -1 Win

Premium

Away -1 Draw

Premium

Away -2 Win

Premium

Away -2 Draw

Premium

Home +1 Win

Premium

Home -1 Draw

Premium

Home -1 Win

Premium

Home -2 Draw

Premium

Home -2 Win

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Head to Head: New Zealand vs Belgium

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

New Zealand — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
27 Jun	H Belgium	L	1 - 5
22 Jun	H Egypt	L	1 - 3
16 Jun	A Iran	D	2 - 2
03 Jun	A Haiti	L	4 - 0
30 Mar	H Chile	D	0 - 0

Belgium — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
10 Jul	A Spain	L	2 - 1
07 Jul	A USA	W	1 - 4
01 Jul	H Senegal	W	3 - 2
27 Jun	A New Zealand	W	1 - 5
21 Jun	H Iran	D	0 - 0

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Belgium

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Rudi Garcia

1 Courtois

5 Cuyper

3 Theate

4 Mechele

21 Castagne

20 Vanaken

8 Tielemans

10 Trossard

7 Bruyne

11 Doku

17 Ketelaere

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Thibaut Courtois	G
21	Timothy Castagne	D
4	Brandon Mechele	D
3	Arthur Theate	D
5	Maxim De Cuyper	D
8	Youri Tielemans	M
20	Hans Vanaken	M
11	Jérémy Doku	M
7	Kevin De Bruyne	M
10	Leandro Trossard	M
17	Charles De Ketelaere	F

Substitutes

26	Matías Fernández-Pardo	F
12	Senne Lammens	G
13	Mike Penders	G
18	Joaquin Seys	D
16	Koni De Winter	D
15	Thomas Meunier	D
24	Amadou Onana	M
19	Diego Moreira	F
14	Dodi Lukebakio	F
23	Nicolas Raskin	M
6	Axel Witsel	M
22	Alexis Saelemaekers	F
9	Romelu Lukaku	F

New Zealand

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Horacio Melgarejo

1 Crocombe

13 Cacace

4 Bindon

16 Surman

2 Payne

8 Stamenić

6 Bell

11 Just

23 Thomas

10 Singh

9 Wood

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Max Crocombe	G
2	Tim Payne	D
16	Finn Surman	D
4	Tyler Bindon	D
13	Liberato Cacace	D
6	Joe Bell	M
8	Marko Stamenić	M
10	Sarpreet Singh	M
23	Ryan Thomas	M
11	Elijah Just	M
9	Chris Wood	F

Substitutes

21	Jesse Randall	F
19	Benjamin Old	F
5	Michael Boxall	D
20	Callum McCowatt	M
22	Michael Woud	G
12	Alex Paulsen	G
15	Nando Pijnaker	D
3	Francis De Vries	D
26	Tommy Smith	D
24	Callan Elliot	D
14	Alex Rufer	M
25	Lachlan Bayliss	M
7	Logan Rogerson	F
17	Kosta Barbarouses	F
18	Ben Waine	F