Norway vs France Prediction

World Cup · Group Stage - 3

Post on X

France

Away

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

AI call Difficult France win or draw

13%

24%

63%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Norway vs France prediction: Sportiko gives Norway a 13% chance of winning, France 63% and the draw 24%. Last updated 31 Jul 2026, 05:46.

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Under 3.5 Goals 74%
2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 7'

Ousmane Dembélé assist: Kylian Mbappé

Patrick Berg Yellow Card

10' ▮

⚽ 0–2 20'

Ousmane Dembélé assist: Kylian Mbappé

Thelo Aasgaard assist: Andreas Schjelderup

21' ⚽ 1–2

⚽ 1–3 32'

Ousmane Dembélé assist: Aurélien Tchouaméni

HT 1–3

Kristian Thorstvedt ⇄ Morten Thorsby

46' ⇄

Fredrik André Bjørkan ⇄ Marcus Pedersen

46' ⇄

Jørgen Strand Larsen Missed Penalty

50' ✗

⇄ 65'

Michael Olise ⇄ Rayan Cherki

⇄ 65'

Ousmane Dembélé ⇄ Bradley Barcola

Henrik Sælebakke Falchener ⇄ Sondre Langås

66' ⇄

▮ 74'

Aurélien Tchouaméni Yellow Card

⇄ 76'

Dayot Upamecano ⇄ Ibrahima Konaté

Andreas Schjelderup ⇄ Jens Petter Hauge

83' ⇄

Oscar Bobb ⇄ Antonio Nusa

83' ⇄

⇄ 87'

Jules Koundé ⇄ Malo Gusto

⇄ 87'

Kylian Mbappé ⇄ Jean-Philippe Mateta

⚽ 1–4 90'

Désiré Doué assist: Bradley Barcola

FT 1–4

Norway

Match Stats

France

43% Ball Possession 57%

1.70 Expected Goals (xG) 1.50

10 Total Shots 18

4 Shots on Goal 9

3 Shots off Goal 6

3 Blocked Shots 3

6 Shots insidebox 10

4 Shots outsidebox 8

4 Corner Kicks 5

1 Offsides 2

9 Fouls 11

1 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

5 Goalkeeper Saves 3

421 Total passes 555

343 Passes accurate 480

81% Passes % 86%

0.41 goals_prevented 0.41

Norway

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 Thelo Aasgaard M	7.9	90'	1	–	1	42 (35%)	3
22 Oscar Bobb F	7.9	83'	–	–	1	28 (25%)	1
21 Andreas Schjelderup F	7.5	83'	–	1	–	26 (21%)	1
13 Egil Selvik G	6.6	90'	–	–	–	25 (13%)	1
20 Antonio Nusa M	6.5	13'	–	–	–	3 (1%)	–
16 Marcus Pedersen D	6.5	45'	–	–	–	12 (11%)	1
14 Fredrik Aursnes D	6.3	90'	–	–	1	53 (47%)	5
18 Kristian Thorstvedt M	6.3	45'	–	–	1	14 (8%)	1
24 Sondre Langås D	6.2	24'	–	–	–	10 (9%)	–
2 Morten Thorsby M	6.2	45'	–	–	–	18 (18%)	1
6 Patrick Berg M	6.2	90'	–	–	–	56 (48%)	–
23 Jens Petter Hauge M	6.2	13'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
15 Fredrik André Bjørkan D	6.0	45'	–	–	–	18 (17%)	1
4 Leo Østigård D	5.9	90'	–	–	1	66 (52%)	2
25 Henrik Sælebakke Falchener D	5.7	66'	–	–	–	24 (19%)	–
11 Jørgen Strand Larsen F	5.6	90'	–	–	2	23 (17%)	–

France

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
7 Ousmane Dembélé M	10.0	65'	3	–	3	41 (30%)	–
20 Désiré Doué M	7.7	90'	1	–	4	49 (40%)	2
8 Aurélien Tchouaméni M	7.6	90'	–	1	1	69 (63%)	7
10 Kylian Mbappé F	7.5	87'	–	2	3	32 (29%)	–
16 Mike Maignan G	7.3	90'	–	–	–	21 (14%)	–
4 Dayot Upamecano D	6.9	76'	–	–	–	46 (39%)	–
6 Manu Koné M	6.9	90'	–	–	1	54 (51%)	2
12 Bradley Barcola F	6.9	25'	–	1	–	9 (8%)	–
26 Maxence Lacroix D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	46 (43%)	2
2 Malo Gusto D	6.7	9'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	–
15 Ibrahima Konaté D	6.6	14'	–	–	–	12 (11%)	–
5 Jules Koundé D	6.5	87'	–	–	–	58 (45%)	4
24 Rayan Cherki M	6.5	25'	–	–	–	21 (20%)	–
22 Jean-Philippe Mateta F	6.5	9'	–	–	–	–	–
19 Theo Hernández D	6.3	90'	–	–	2	44 (42%)	–
11 Michael Olise M	6.3	65'	–	–	1	43 (37%)	–

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Confidence Medium (63%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult France win or draw

Most likely score

0:2 · 13.2%

Both teams to score

45%

Over 2.5 goals

48%

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Norway

WLWWL

France

LLWWW

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match on June 26, 2026, Norway faces a formidable challenge against France. Norway has shown promise with a solid attack, led by star striker Erling Haaland, who averaged 0.7 goals per game in qualifying. However, France boasts a deep squad with world-class talent, including Kylian Mbappé, who has been instrumental in their attacking play, contributing significantly in both goals and assists. Historically, France has an advantage, winning 7 of their last 10 encounters. Norway will need to leverage home advantage and maintain defensive solidity to disrupt France's fluid attacking style. This clash could hinge on Norway's ability to contain France's offensive prowess while capitalizing on any defensive lapses.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

13%

10%

Draw

24%

45%

Away

63%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

France goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9	13	13	8	4	1
1	4	12	10	6	3	1
2	2	4	4	2	1
3		1	1	1
4
5

↑ Norway goals · most likely 0–2 (13.2%)

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Players in form

Norway

E. Haaland 7 gls

France

Kylian Mbappé 10 gls

O. Dembélé 6 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

63%

Draw

24%

Home Win

13%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS No 45% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

63%

Draw

24%

Home Win

13%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

83% Away (No Draw) 17% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

38% Away Win by 2+ 4% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

63% Away Scores More 24% Equal Goals 13% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS No 45% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

17%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.8%	12.7%	13.2%	8.3%	3.9%
1	4.1%	11.6%	9.6%	6.0%	2.8%
2	2.0%	3.7%	3.5%	2.2%	1.0%
3	0.5%	0.9%	0.9%	0.5%	0.3%
4	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

32%

34%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

57%

1.5

43%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

32%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Norway	Draw	France
Norway	7.0%	3.3%	2.3%
Draw	5.5%	15.8%	21.0%
France	0.8%	3.3%	41.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

48%

35%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

15%

0.5

85%

45%

1.5

55%

72%

2.5

28%

89%

3.5

11%

Away Exact Goals

15%

29%

27%

17%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Norway vs France

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Norway — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
24 Sep	H Denmark	W	3 - 2
11 Jul	H England	L	1 - 2
05 Jul	A Brazil	W	1 - 2
30 Jun	A Ivory Coast	W	1 - 2
26 Jun	H France	L	1 - 4

France — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Jul	H England	L	4 - 6
14 Jul	H Spain	L	0 - 2
09 Jul	H Morocco	W	2 - 0
04 Jul	A Paraguay	W	0 - 1
30 Jun	H Sweden	W	3 - 0

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

France

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Didier Deschamps

16 Maignan

19 Hernandez

26 Lacroix

4 Upamecano

5 Kounde

6 Kone

8 Tchouameni

20 Doue

11 Olise

7 Dembele

10 Mbappe

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
16	M. Maignan	G
5	J. Kounde	D
4	D. Upamecano	D
26	M. Lacroix	D
19	T. Hernandez	D
8	A. Tchouameni	M
6	M. Kone	M
7	O. Dembele	M
11	M. Olise	M
20	D. Doue	M
10	K. Mbappe	F

Substitutes

1	B. Samba	G
23	R. Risser	G
15	I. Konate	D
17	W. Saliba	D
2	M. Gusto	D
25	M. Akliouche	M
18	W. Zaire-Emery	M
3	L. Digne	D
13	N. Kante	M
14	A. Rabiot	M
21	L. Hernandez	D
9	M. Thuram	F
22	J. Mateta	F
24	R. Cherki	M
12	B. Barcola	F

Norway

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: S. Solbakken

13 Selvik

15 Bjorkan

4 Ostigard

25 Falchener

14 Aursnes

19 Aasgaard

6 Berg

18 Thorstvedt

21 Schjelderup

11 Larsen

22 Bobb

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
13	E. Selvik	G
14	F. Aursnes	D
25	H. Falchener	D
4	L. Ostigard	D
15	F. Bjorkan	D
18	K. Thorstvedt	M
6	P. Berg	M
19	T. Aasgaard	M
22	O. Bobb	F
11	J. Larsen	F
21	A. Schjelderup	F

Substitutes

1	O. Nyland	G
12	S. Tangvik	G
7	A. Sorloth	F
2	M. Thorsby	M
10	M. Odegaard	M
3	K. Ajer	D
8	S. Berge	M
26	J. Ryerson	D
23	J. Hauge	M
17	T. Heggem	D
5	D. Wolfe	D
9	E. Haaland	F
16	M. Pedersen	D
24	S. Langas	D
20	A. Nusa	M