Türkiye vs USA Prediction

World Cup · Group Stage - 3

Post on X

USA

Away

AI call Difficult USA win or draw

17%

28%

54%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Türkiye vs USA prediction: Sportiko gives Türkiye a 17% chance of winning, USA 54% and the draw 28%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Under 3.5 Goals 79%
2nd Half Over 0.5 72%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%

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Match Report

Türkiye came from behind to claim a dramatic 3–2 victory over the USA in their final World Cup group stage match. Auston Trusty gave the Americans an early lead in the third minute, but Türkiye responded swiftly through Arda Güler in the 10th minute before Barış Alper Yılmaz put the hosts ahead on 31 minutes. The USA went into half-time trailing 2–1 despite dominating possession and registering the greater share of attempts.

Sebastian Berhalter, who had picked up a yellow card before the break, levelled matters four minutes into the second half to set up a tense finish. The USA pushed for a winner, generating nine corner kicks and 18 total shots across the match, but Türkiye held firm and struck the decisive blow deep into stoppage time when Kaan Ayhan converted in the 98th minute to seal a 3–2 win.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a USA victory as the most likely outcome at 54%, a call that ultimately proved wide of the mark. Türkiye's clinical finishing in key moments proved the difference despite the Americans' statistical dominance throughout.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 3'

Auston Trusty assist: Sebastian Berhalter

Arda Güler assist: Barış Alper Yılmaz

10' ⚽ 1–1

▮ 19'

Sebastian Berhalter Yellow Card

Barış Alper Yılmaz assist: Orkun Kökçü

31' ⚽ 2–1

HT 2–1

⚽ 2–2 49'

Sebastian Berhalter

⇄ 58'

Tim Weah ⇄ Christian Pulišić

⇄ 76'

Giovanni Reyna ⇄ Sergiño Dest

⇄ 77'

Brenden Aaronson ⇄ Alex Zendejas

⇄ 77'

Joe Scally ⇄ Alexander Freeman

Zeki Çelik ⇄ Çağlar Söyüncü

84' ⇄

Kenan Yıldız ⇄ Can Uzun

84' ⇄

⇄ 86'

Weston McKennie ⇄ Malik Tillman

Orkun Kökçü ⇄ Kaan Ayhan

88' ⇄

Oğuz Aydın ⇄ Mert Müldür

92' ⇄

Barış Alper Yılmaz ⇄ İrfan Can Kahveci

92' ⇄

Kaan Ayhan

98' ⚽ 3–2

FT 3–2

Türkiye

Match Stats

USA

47% Ball Possession 53%

7 Total Shots 18

2 Shots on Goal 7

3 Shots off Goal 6

2 Blocked Shots 5

2 Corner Kicks 9

2 Offsides 5

13 Fouls 13

0 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 0

5 Goalkeeper Saves 0

11 Free Kicks 13

Türkiye

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
21 Barış Alper Yılmaz F	8.3	92'	1	1	1	13 (11%)	1
8 Arda Güler M	7.4	90'	1	–	1	49 (38%)	2
23 Uğurcan Çakır G	6.7	90'	–	–	–	40 (25%)	–
14 Abdülkerim Bardakcı D	6.6	90'	–	–	1	46 (36%)	4
2 Zeki Çelik D	6.5	84'	–	–	–	45 (35%)	4
13 Eren Elmalı D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	39 (32%)	2
15 Ozan Kabak D	6.4	90'	–	–	–	37 (29%)	4
11 Kenan Yıldız M	6.4	84'	–	–	2	24 (19%)	3
6 Orkun Kökçü M	6.3	88'	–	1	2	36 (23%)	2
5 Salih Özcan M	6.2	90'	–	–	–	41 (34%)	2
24 Oğuz Aydın M	6.2	92'	–	–	–	37 (31%)	6
4 Çağlar Söyüncü D	6.1	6'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
26 Can Uzun M	6.1	6'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	–
22 Kaan Ayhan D	5.8	2'	–	–	–	3 (1%)	–

USA

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
14 Sebastian Berhalter M	9.0	90'	1	1	1	63 (54%)	2
6 Auston Trusty D	6.9	90'	1	–	3	42 (31%)	1
8 Weston McKennie M	6.6	86'	–	–	3	47 (41%)	2
12 Miles Robinson D	6.6	90'	–	–	1	56 (52%)	1
26 Alex Zendejas F	6.5	13'	–	–	1	6 (5%)	1
22 Mark McKenzie D	6.4	90'	–	–	–	58 (50%)	1
23 Joe Scally D	6.4	77'	–	–	–	36 (32%)	1
7 Giovanni Reyna M	6.3	76'	–	–	1	52 (43%)	–
11 Brenden Aaronson M	6.3	77'	–	–	3	22 (21%)	4
9 Ricardo Pepi F	6.3	90'	–	–	2	16 (13%)	–
16 Alexander Freeman D	6.2	13'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	1
1 Matt Turner G	6.1	90'	–	–	–	25 (16%)	–
10 Christian Pulišić M	6.0	32'	–	–	3	12 (12%)	–
17 Malik Tillman M	5.9	4'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
2 Sergiño Dest D	5.8	14'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
21 Tim Weah M	5.5	58'	–	–	–	19 (15%)	–

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Confidence Medium (54%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult USA win or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.3%

Both teams to score

45%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

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Türkiye

WLLLW

USA

LWLWW

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match on June 26, Türkiye will host the USA in a clash that could be pivotal for both teams' progress in the tournament. Türkiye boasts a strong midfield, with players like Hakan Çalhanoğlu contributing significantly to ball control and creativity, while their defensive organization has shown resilience in recent qualifiers. The USA, known for their athleticism and pace, will rely on the talents of Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie to exploit any gaps in Türkiye's defense. Historically, both teams have seen mixed results in international fixtures, making this encounter unpredictable. A key factor will be the tactical adaptability of both coaches, as each side seeks to impose their style of play.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

17%

10%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

54%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

USA goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11	13	12	6	2	1
1	6	13	9	5	2	1
2	3	5	4	2	1
3	1	1	1	1
4
5

↑ Türkiye goals · most likely 1–1 (13.3%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

54%

Draw

28%

Home Win

17%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS No 45% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

54%

Draw

28%

Home Win

17%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

76% Away (No Draw) 24% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

29% Away Win by 2+ 6% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

54% Away Scores More 28% Equal Goals 17% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS No 45% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

19%

28%

21%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.8%	13.2%	11.6%	6.1%	2.4%
1	5.9%	13.3%	9.3%	4.9%	1.9%
2	3.0%	4.7%	3.7%	2.0%	0.8%
3	0.8%	1.3%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

70%

1.5

30%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

61%

1.5

39%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

28%

33%

25%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Türkiye	Draw	USA
Türkiye	9.7%	3.8%	2.1%
Draw	7.5%	18.9%	19.6%
USA	1.0%	3.7%	33.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

45%

36%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

70%

0.5

30%

95%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

93%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

53%

1.5

47%

79%

2.5

21%

93%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

21%

33%

26%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

78%

1.5

22%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Türkiye vs USA

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Türkiye — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
26 Jun	H USA	W	3 - 2
20 Jun	H Paraguay	L	0 - 1
14 Jun	A Australia	L	2 - 0
06 Jul	A Netherlands	L	2 - 1
02 Jul	A Austria	W	1 - 2

USA — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Jul	H Belgium	L	1 - 4
02 Jul	H Bosnia & Herzegovina	W	2 - 0
26 Jun	A Türkiye	L	3 - 2
19 Jun	H Australia	W	2 - 0
13 Jun	H Paraguay	W	4 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Türkiye

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: V. Montella

23 Çakır

13 Elmalı

14 Bardakcı

15 Kabak

2 Çelik

5 Özcan

6 Kökçü

11 Yıldız

8 Güler

24 Aydın

21 Yılmaz

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	U. Çakır	G
2	Z. Çelik	D
15	O. Kabak	D
14	A. Bardakcı	D
13	E. Elmalı	D
6	O. Kökçü	M
5	S. Özcan	M
24	O. Aydın	M
8	A. Güler	M
11	K. Yıldız	M
21	B. Yılmaz	F

Substitutes

17	İ. Kahveci	M
22	K. Ayhan	D
10	H. Çalhanoğlu	M
1	M. Günok	G
4	Ç. Söyüncü	D
3	M. Demiral	D
12	A. Bayındır	G
20	F. Kadıoğlu	D
18	M. Müldür	D
19	Y. Akgün	F
16	İ. Yüksek	M
25	S. Akaydin	D
7	K. Aktürkoğlu	F
26	C. Uzun	M
9	D. Gül	F

USA

Formation: 4-1-2-3 Coach: M. Pochettino

1 Turner

6 Trusty

12 Robinson

22 McKenzie

23 Scally

8 McKennie

7 Reyna

14 Berhalter

11 Aaronson

9 Pepi

21 Weah

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	M. Turner	G
23	J. Scally	D
22	M. McKenzie	D
12	M. Robinson	D
6	A. Trusty	D
8	W. McKennie	M
14	S. Berhalter	M
7	G. Reyna	M
21	T. Weah	M
9	R. Pepi	F
11	B. Aaronson	M

Substitutes

16	A. Freeman	D
18	M. Arfsten	M
25	C. Brady	G
20	F. Balogun	F
17	M. Tillman	M
24	M. Freese	G
26	A. Zendejas	F
3	C. Richards	D
2	S. Dest	D
19	H. Wright	F
10	C. Pulišić	M
5	A. Robinson	D
4	T. Adams	M
13	T. Ream	D