Japan vs Sweden Prediction

World Cup · Group Stage - 3

Post on X

Sweden

Away

AI call Japan or draw

45%

29%

26%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Japan vs Sweden prediction: Sportiko gives Japan a 45% chance of winning, Sweden 26% and the draw 29%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Under 3.5 Goals 73%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
2nd Half Over 0.5 75%

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Match Report

Japan and Sweden played out a tense 1–1 draw in their World Cup group stage encounter, with both goals arriving in a lively second half after a goalless first 45 minutes. The match was disrupted early by a yellow card for Sweden's Isak Hien in the 32nd minute, which prompted his substitution just five minutes later, while Japan also made an enforced change with Ko Itakura withdrawn shortly after.

Japan broke the deadlock on 56 minutes through Daizen Maeda, but Sweden responded swiftly, with Anthony Elanga levelling the score at 62 minutes to restore parity. Both sides made multiple substitutions in the final quarter of the match as they pushed for a winner, though neither could find a decisive moment. The stats reflected an evenly contested affair, with both teams registering eight total shots and three on target apiece, while Sweden enjoyed the greater share of set-piece opportunities with seven corners to Japan's two.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Japan win as the most likely outcome at 45%, a call that ultimately did not materialise. The point leaves the group standings finely balanced heading into the final round of fixtures.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 32'

Isak Hien Yellow Card

⇄ 37'

Isak Hien ⇄ Lucas Bergvall

Ko Itakura ⇄ Shogo Taniguchi

39' ⇄

HT 0–0

Daizen Maeda assist: Ritsu Doan

56' ⚽ 1–0

⚽ 1–1 62'

Anthony Elanga assist: Viktor Gyökeres

Ayase Ueda ⇄ Koki Ogawa

66' ⇄

Ritsu Doan ⇄ Junya Ito

67' ⇄

⇄ 75'

Alexander Bernhardsson ⇄ Daniel Svensson

⇄ 75'

Elliot Stroud ⇄ Ken Sema

Keito Nakamura ⇄ Yuto Nagatomo

75' ⇄

Ayumu Seko ⇄ Tsuyoshi Watanabe

75' ⇄

Shogo Taniguchi Yellow Card

77' ▮

▮ 85'

Viktor Gyökeres Yellow Card

⇄ 87'

Victor Lindelöf ⇄ Carl Starfelt

⇄ 88'

Gabriel Gudmundsson ⇄ Benjamin Nygren

FT 1–1

Japan

Match Stats

Sweden

54% Ball Possession 46%

8 Total Shots 8

3 Shots on Goal 3

3 Shots off Goal 2

2 Blocked Shots 3

2 Corner Kicks 7

3 Offsides 2

20 Fouls 11

1 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 0

2 Goalkeeper Saves 2

11 Free Kicks 19

Japan

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
7 Ao Tanaka M	7.4	45'	–	–	–	41 (36%)	2
1 Zion Suzuki G	7.3	45'	–	–	–	14 (8%)	–
15 Daichi Kamada M	7.1	45'	–	–	–	45 (41%)	–
21 Hiroki Itō D	7.0	45'	–	–	–	22 (20%)	1
13 Keito Nakamura F	7.0	45'	–	–	1	17 (16%)	–
4 Ko Itakura D	6.9	39'	–	–	–	29 (27%)	–
11 Daizen Maeda F	6.8	45'	–	–	1	6 (6%)	2
10 Ritsu Doan M	6.7	45'	–	–	1	20 (17%)	–
3 Shogo Taniguchi D	6.6	6'	–	–	–	10 (10%)	–
20 Ayumu Seko D	6.5	45'	–	–	–	28 (22%)	–
2 Yukinari Sugawara D	6.5	45'	–	–	1	19 (15%)	–
18 Ayase Ueda F	6.4	45'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–

Sweden

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
5 Gabriel Gudmundsson D	7.1	45'	–	–	–	30 (27%)	1
9 Alexander Isak F	7.0	45'	–	–	–	7 (2%)	–
4 Isak Hien D	6.9	37'	–	–	–	24 (22%)	–
3 Victor Lindelöf D	6.8	45'	–	–	–	21 (21%)	–
2 Gustaf Lagerbielke D	6.7	45'	–	–	–	29 (25%)	–
18 Yasin Ayari M	6.6	45'	–	–	–	15 (10%)	1
24 Elliot Stroud D	6.6	45'	–	–	–	17 (13%)	1
7 Lucas Bergvall M	6.5	8'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
11 Anthony Elanga F	6.5	45'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	–
17 Viktor Gyökeres F	6.4	45'	–	–	1	10 (4%)	–
21 Alexander Bernhardsson F	6.3	45'	–	–	1	15 (8%)	1
1 Jacob Widell Zetterström G	6.2	45'	–	–	–	20 (9%)	–

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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Our lean

Japan or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.8%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

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Japan

LDWDL

Sweden

LDLW

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match on June 25, 2026, Japan will host Sweden in what promises to be a competitive encounter. Japan's squad boasts a strong blend of speed and technical skill, with players like Kaoru Mitoma and Takefusa Kubo leading their attack. Conversely, Sweden, traditionally known for their physicality and set-piece prowess, will rely on the experience of stars like Alexander Isak and Emil Forsberg.

Historically, Japan has shown resilience in tournament play, while Sweden has a robust defensive record. Key battles in midfield will likely dictate possession and tempo, crucial for both sides. This clash could hinge on Japan's ability to break down Sweden's defense, while Sweden will aim to exploit any defensive lapses with quick counter-attacks. Overall, the match promises to be a tactical showdown with significant implications for both teams' World Cup aspirations.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

45%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

26%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Sweden goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	6	4	2
1	9	14	7	3	1
2	8	9	5	2	1
3	4	5	3	1
4	2	2	1
5		1

↑ Japan goals · most likely 1–1 (13.8%)

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Players in form

Japan

H. Morita 3 gls

Sweden

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

29%

Away Win

26%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

24%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

29%

Away Win

26%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

63% Home (No Draw) 37% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

23% Home Win by 2+ 11% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

45% Home Scores More 29% Equal Goals 26% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

24%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.7%	6.4%	4.5%	1.7%	0.5%
1	9.3%	13.8%	6.8%	2.6%	0.7%
2	8.3%	9.3%	5.2%	2.0%	0.6%
3	4.2%	4.8%	2.7%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.6%	1.8%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

32%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

56%

1.5

44%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Japan	Draw	Sweden
Japan	27.7%	4.4%	1.6%
Draw	16.2%	17.9%	10.5%
Sweden	2.3%	4.3%	15.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

22%

33%

25%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

85%

1.5

15%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

33%

37%

20%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Japan vs Sweden

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Japan — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
29 Jun	A Brazil	L	2 - 1
25 Jun	H Sweden	D	1 - 1
21 Jun	A Tunisia	W	0 - 4
14 Jun	A Netherlands	D	2 - 2
03 Feb	A Iran	L	2 - 1

Sweden — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
30 Jun	A France	L	3 - 0
25 Jun	A Japan	D	1 - 1
20 Jun	A Netherlands	L	5 - 1
15 Jun	H Tunisia	W	5 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Japan

Formation: 3-4-3 Coach: Hajime Moriyasu

1 Suzuki

21 Ito

4 Itakura

20 Seko

13 Nakamura

7 Tanaka

15 Kamada

2 Sugawara

11 Maeda

18 Ueda

10 Dōan

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Z. Suzuki	G
20	A. Seko	D
4	K. Itakura	D
21	H. Ito	D
2	Y. Sugawara	D
15	D. Kamada	M
7	A. Tanaka	M
13	Keito Nakamura	F
10	R. Dōan	M
18	A. Ueda	F
11	D. Maeda	F

Substitutes

3	S. Taniguchi	D
5	Y. Nagatomo	D
14	J. Ito	F
22	T. Tomiyasu	D
19	Koki Ogawa	F
12	K. Osako	G
24	K. Sano	M
16	T. Watanabe	D
17	Y. Suzuki	M
23	T. Hayakawa	G
25	J. Suzuki	D
9	K. Goto	F
26	K. Shiogai	F
6	S. Machino	F

Sweden

Formation: 3-4-1-2 Coach: Graham Potter

1 Zetterström

3 Lindelöf

4 Hien

2 Lagerbielke

5 Gudmundsson

18 Ayari

24 Stroud

21 Bernhardsson

11 Elanga

9 Isak

17 Gyökeres

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	J. Widell Zetterström	G
2	G. Lagerbielke	D
4	I. Hien	D
3	V. Lindelöf	D
21	A. Bernhardsson	F
24	E. Stroud	D
18	Y. Ayari	M
5	G. Gudmundsson	D
11	A. Elanga	F
17	V. Gyökeres	F
9	A. Isak	F

Substitutes

22	B. Zeneli	M
7	L. Bergvall	M
8	D. Svensson	D
6	H. Johansson	D
26	T. Ali	F
10	B. Nygren	F
12	V. Johansson	G
14	H. Ekdal	D
19	M. Svanberg	M
25	G. Nilsson	F
20	E. Smith	D
15	C. Starfelt	D
13	K. Sema	M
16	J. Karlström	M
23	K. Nordfeldt	G