Portugal vs Uzbekistan Prediction

World Cup · Group Stage - 2

Post on X

Uzbekistan

Away

AI call Portugal to win or draw

74%

22%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Portugal vs Uzbekistan prediction: Sportiko gives Portugal a 74% chance of winning, Uzbekistan 5% and the draw 22%. Last updated 20 Jul 2026, 15:55.

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Match Report

Portugal were dominant from the first whistle, taking control of their World Cup Group Stage fixture against Uzbekistan with an early double. Cristiano Ronaldo opened the scoring in the sixth minute, and Nuno Mendes added a second just three minutes later. Ronaldo then grabbed his second of the night on 39 minutes to send Portugal into the break with a commanding 3–0 lead, a VAR-disallowed Uzbekistan goal doing little to alter the contest's one-sided complexion. Our AI model had rated a Portugal win most likely at 74% before kick-off, a call that proved well-founded.

The second half followed a similar pattern. Portugal's dominance was underlined when an Abduvokhid Nematov own goal extended the lead on the hour mark, and Roberto Martínez used the occasion to rotate his squad with a series of substitutions. Rafael Leão rounded off the scoring in the 87th minute to complete a polished team performance.

Portugal's statistical superiority told its own story — 66% possession, nine shots on target, and an expected goals figure of 2.44 compared to Uzbekistan's 0.24, reflecting just how thoroughly they controlled proceedings throughout.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Cristiano Ronaldo assist: João Cancelo

6' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 14'

Odiljon Khamrobekov Yellow Card

Nuno Mendes

17' ⚽ 2–0

🖵 29'

Azizjon Ganiev Goal Disallowed - Foul

Cristiano Ronaldo assist: Bruno Fernandes

39' ⚽ 3–0

HT 3–0

João Cancelo ⇄ Nélson Semedo

46' ⇄

Pedro Neto ⇄ Francisco Conceição

46' ⇄

⇄ 46'

Sherzod Nasrullaev ⇄ Khozhiakbar Alizhonov

⇄ 46'

Odiljon Khamrobekov ⇄ Akmal Mozgovoy

Abduvokhid Nematov Own Goal

60' ⚽ 4–0

João Félix ⇄ Francisco Trincão

64' ⇄

Renato Veiga Yellow Card

68' ▮

⇄ 73'

Abbosbek Fayzullaev ⇄ Igor Sergeev

João Neves ⇄ Bernardo Silva

76' ⇄

Vitinha ⇄ Rafael Leão

83' ⇄

Rafael Leão

87' ⚽ 5–0

⇄ 90+2'

Bekhruz Karimov ⇄ Ruslanbek Jiyanov

⇄ 90+2'

Otabek Shukurov ⇄ Sherzod Esanov

FT 5–0

Portugal

Match Stats

Uzbekistan

66% Ball Possession 34%

2.44 Expected Goals (xG) 0.24

17 Total Shots 7

9 Shots on Goal 2

5 Shots off Goal 2

3 Blocked Shots 3

12 Shots insidebox 4

5 Shots outsidebox 3

3 Corner Kicks 2

1 Offsides 2

13 Fouls 15

1 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 4

616 Total passes 319

555 Passes accurate 257

90% Passes % 81%

-1.08 goals_prevented -1.08

Portugal

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
7 Cristiano Ronaldo F	8.7	91'	2	–	6	17 (11%)	1
8 Bruno Fernandes M	8.5	91'	–	1	1	67 (56%)	2
25 Nuno Mendes D	8.3	91'	1	–	1	52 (39%)	2
23 Vitinha M	7.7	83'	–	–	1	98 (95%)	–
17 Rafael Leão F	7.7	8'	1	–	1	3 (2%)	–
3 Rúben Dias D	7.6	91'	–	–	–	61 (60%)	2
13 Renato Veiga D	7.3	91'	–	–	–	67 (62%)	–
20 João Cancelo D	7.2	45'	–	1	–	28 (27%)	–
15 João Neves M	7.2	76'	–	–	–	54 (52%)	2
18 Pedro Neto M	7.2	45'	–	–	–	18 (16%)	–
26 Francisco Conceição F	7.0	46'	–	–	–	27 (25%)	2
1 Diogo Costa G	6.9	91'	–	–	–	14 (11%)	–
10 Bernardo Silva M	6.7	15'	–	–	–	15 (15%)	–
2 Nélson Semedo D	6.7	46'	–	–	–	39 (35%)	–
11 João Félix M	6.7	64'	–	–	3	22 (19%)	2
16 Francisco Trincão F	6.2	27'	–	–	–	14 (11%)	–

Uzbekistan

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 Azizjon Ganiev F	7.0	91'	–	–	–	36 (30%)	3
14 Eldor Shomurodov F	6.9	91'	–	–	1	27 (21%)	2
22 Abbosbek Fayzullaev F	6.7	73'	–	–	1	17 (13%)	2
21 Igor Sergeev F	6.5	18'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
7 Otabek Shukurov M	6.3	91'	–	–	1	40 (35%)	2
13 Sherzod Nasrullaev M	6.3	45'	–	–	1	12 (8%)	–
2 Abdukodir Khusanov D	6.2	91'	–	–	–	22 (20%)	–
24 Bekhruz Karimov M	6.2	91'	–	–	–	25 (20%)	4
6 Akmal Mozgovoy M	6.2	46'	–	–	–	15 (14%)	–
12 Abduvokhid Nematov G	6.2	91'	–	–	–	20 (8%)	–
18 Abdulla Abdullaev D	6.0	91'	–	–	–	31 (26%)	2
3 Khozhiakbar Alizhonov D	5.9	46'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	–
5 Rustam Ashurmatov D	5.7	91'	–	–	–	41 (34%)	2
9 Odiljon Khamrobekov M	5.6	45'	–	–	–	21 (18%)	–

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Confidence High (74%)

At a glance

Our lean

Portugal to win or draw

Most likely score

1:0 · 21.3%

Both teams to score

23%

Over 2.5 goals

35%

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Portugal

LWDWD

Uzbekistan

LLLLL

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match on June 23, 2026, Portugal faces Uzbekistan. Portugal boasts a strong squad featuring top players like Cristiano Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes, with a recent form that highlights their attacking prowess, averaging over 2.5 goals per game in qualifying rounds. Uzbekistan, while showing promise in their qualifiers, may struggle against Portugal's established defensive unit. Historically, Portugal has dominated matches against lower-ranked teams, making them the clear favorites in this encounter. Expect a tactical display from Portugal, aiming to control possession and exploit Uzbekistan's defensive vulnerabilities.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

74%

45%

Draw

22%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Uzbekistan goals →

	0	1	2
0	13	3	1
1	21	8	1
2	20	6	1
3	12	4	1
4	5	2
5	2	1

↑ Portugal goals · most likely 1–0 (21.3%)

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Players in form

Portugal

No scorer data.

Uzbekistan

O. O'runov 4 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

74%

Draw

22%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

78% BTTS No 23% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

37%

1.5

63%

65%

2.5

35%

85%

3.5

15%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

74%

Draw

22%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

94% Home (No Draw) 6% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

46% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

74% Home Scores More 22% Equal Goals 5% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

37%

1.5

63%

65%

2.5

35%

85%

3.5

15%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

78% BTTS No 23% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

24%

28%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.1%	2.8%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
1	21.3%	7.5%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2	20.1%	6.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	12.1%	3.6%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
4	5.5%	1.6%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

74%

1.5

26%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

39%

36%

18%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

32%

35%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Portugal	Draw	Uzbekistan
Portugal	48.7%	1.6%	0.2%
Draw	24.9%	16.8%	2.3%
Uzbekistan	1.2%	1.8%	2.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

46%

1.5

54%

74%

2.5

26%

90%

3.5

10%

Home Exact Goals

17%

30%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Portugal vs Uzbekistan

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Portugal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Jul	H Spain	L	0 - 1
02 Jul	H Croatia	W	2 - 1
27 Jun	A Colombia	D	0 - 0
23 Jun	H Uzbekistan	W	5 - 0
17 Jun	H Congo DR	D	1 - 1

Uzbekistan — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
27 Jun	A Congo DR	L	3 - 1
23 Jun	A Portugal	L	5 - 0
18 Jun	H Colombia	L	1 - 3
08 Jun	A Netherlands	L	2 - 1
02 Jun	A Canada	L	2 - 0

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Portugal

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Roberto Martinez

1 Costa

25 Mendes

13 Veiga

3 Dias

20 Cancelo

23 Vitinha

15 Neves

11 Félix

8 Fernandes

18 Neto

7 Ronaldo

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Diogo Costa	G
20	João Cancelo	D
3	Rúben Dias	D
13	Renato Veiga	D
25	Nuno Mendes	D
15	João Neves	M
23	Vitinha	M
18	Pedro Neto	M
8	Bruno Fernandes	M
11	João Félix	M
7	Cristiano Ronaldo	F

Substitutes

2	Nélson Semedo	D
26	Francisco Conceição	F
16	Francisco Trincão	F
12	José Sá	G
22	Rui Silva	G
4	Tomás Araújo	D
5	Diogo Dalot	D
14	Gonçalo Inácio	D
6	Matheus Nunes	M
24	Samú Costa	M
10	Bernardo Silva	M
21	Rúben Neves	M
19	Gonçalo Guedes	F
9	Gonçalo Ramos	F
17	Rafael Leão	F

Uzbekistan

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Fabio Cannavaro

12 Nematov

5 Ashurmatov

18 Abdullaev

2 Khusanov

13 Nasrullaev

7 Shukurov

9 Khamrobekov

24 Karimov

22 Fayzullaev

19 Ganiev

14 Shomurodov

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
12	Abduvokhid Nematov	G
2	Abdukodir Khusanov	D
18	Abdulla Abdullaev	D
5	Rustam Ashurmatov	D
24	Bekhruz Karimov	M
9	Odiljon Khamrobekov	M
7	Otabek Shukurov	M
13	Sherzod Nasrullaev	M
19	Azizjon Ganiev	F
22	Abbosbek Fayzullaev	F
14	Eldor Shomurodov	F

Substitutes

3	Khozhiakbar Alizhonov	D
6	Akmal Mozgovoy	M
16	Botirali Ergashev	G
1	Utkir Yusupov	G
25	Avazbek Ulmasaliyev	D
4	Farrukh Sayfiev	D
26	Jakhongir Urozov	D
15	Umarbek Eshmuradov	D
20	Azizbek Amanov	F
8	Jamshid Iskandarov	M
17	Dostonbek Khamdamov	M
11	Oston Urunov	M
10	Ruslanbek Jiyanov	M
23	Sherzod Esanov	M
21	Igor Sergeev	F