Tunisia vs Japan Prediction

World Cup · Group Stage - 2

Post on X

Japan

Away

Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe

AI call Difficult Japan win or draw

12%

27%

61%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Tunisia vs Japan prediction: Sportiko gives Tunisia a 12% chance of winning, Japan 61% and the draw 27%. Last updated 20 Jul 2026, 15:55.

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Match Report

Japan delivered a commanding Group Stage performance against Tunisia, taking control from the opening minutes. Daichi Kamada broke the deadlock as early as the fourth minute, and Ayase Ueda doubled the advantage on 31 minutes to send Japan into half-time firmly in command at 2–0.

Tunisia made changes at the interval, introducing Elias Saad and Dylan Bronn, but struggled to make any meaningful impact — registering zero shots on goal across the entire match compared to Japan's five. The xG figures told a similarly stark story: 2.07 for Japan against just 0.05 for Tunisia. Junya Ito extended the lead on 69 minutes, and Ueda added his second of the match on 83 minutes to complete the rout before being substituted a minute later.

Japan's 4–0 victory was as comprehensive as the statistics suggest, with 62% possession and a disciplined defensive display leaving Tunisia without a single attempt on target. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Japan win as the most likely outcome at 61%, a call that proved well-founded.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 4'

Daichi Kamada assist: Keito Nakamura

⚽ 0–2 31'

Ayase Ueda assist: Ko Itakura

HT 0–2

Elias Saad ⇄ Ismael Gharbi

46' ⇄

Dylan Bronn ⇄ Amine Ben Hmida

46' ⇄

Sebastian Tounekti ⇄ Firas Chaouat

65' ⇄

⚽ 0–3 69'

Junya Ito assist: Ayase Ueda

⇄ 73'

Daichi Kamada ⇄ Junnosuke Suzuki

⇄ 74'

Ritsu Doan ⇄ Yukinari Sugawara

⇄ 79'

Keito Nakamura ⇄ Yuito Suzuki

⇄ 79'

Takehiro Tomiyasu ⇄ Ayumu Seko

⚽ 0–4 83'

Ayase Ueda assist: Kaishu Sano

⇄ 84'

Ayase Ueda ⇄ Keisuke Goto

Ali Abdi ⇄ Elias Achouri

90+1' ⇄

Ellyes Skhiri ⇄ Rani Khedira

90+1' ⇄

FT 0–4

Tunisia

Match Stats

Japan

38% Ball Possession 62%

0.05 Expected Goals (xG) 2.07

2 Total Shots 11

0 Shots on Goal 5

1 Shots off Goal 3

1 Blocked Shots 3

1 Shots insidebox 8

1 Shots outsidebox 3

3 Corner Kicks 5

1 Offsides 1

7 Fouls 13

Yellow Cards

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 0

328 Total passes 547

264 Passes accurate 491

80% Passes % 90%

0.00 goals_prevented 0.00

Tunisia

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Hannibal Mejbri F	6.7	91'	–	–	1	30 (26%)	–
25 Anis Ben Slimane M	6.6	91'	–	–	–	37 (31%)	2
2 Ali Abdi M	6.5	91'	–	–	–	19 (12%)	4
19 Firas Chaouat F	6.5	27'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
20 Yan Valery M	6.3	91'	–	–	–	13 (10%)	2
11 Ismael Gharbi F	6.3	46'	–	–	–	6 (4%)	–
21 Amine Ben Hmida D	6.2	46'	–	–	–	23 (18%)	3
8 Elias Saad F	6.2	45'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	–
6 Dylan Bronn D	6.2	45'	–	–	–	20 (17%)	–
26 Sebastian Tounekti F	6.2	64'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	–
17 Ellyes Skhiri M	6.0	91'	–	–	–	38 (34%)	1
4 Omar Rekik D	5.9	91'	–	–	–	53 (41%)	2
3 Montassar Talbi D	5.9	91'	–	–	–	49 (45%)	1
16 Aymen Dahmen G	5.2	91'	–	–	–	21 (9%)	–

Japan

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
18 Ayase Ueda F	9.7	84'	2	1	4	14 (9%)	–
13 Keito Nakamura M	7.7	79'	–	1	–	28 (25%)	2
4 Ko Itakura D	7.6	91'	–	1	–	85 (81%)	1
24 Kaishu Sano M	7.6	91'	–	1	–	69 (65%)	1
21 Hiroki Itō D	7.3	91'	–	–	–	71 (66%)	3
22 Takehiro Tomiyasu D	7.2	79'	–	–	1	72 (64%)	1
7 Ao Tanaka M	7.2	91'	–	–	1	69 (66%)	4
14 Junya Ito F	7.0	91'	1	–	1	40 (33%)	1
1 Zion Suzuki G	6.9	91'	–	–	–	19 (17%)	–
10 Ritsu Doan M	6.7	74'	–	–	–	27 (23%)	1
15 Daichi Kamada F	6.7	73'	1	–	1	30 (23%)	1
20 Ayumu Seko D	6.7	12'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	–
25 Junnosuke Suzuki D	6.3	18'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
2 Yukinari Sugawara D	6.3	17'	–	–	–	10 (7%)	–
17 Yuito Suzuki M	6.3	12'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
9 Keisuke Goto F	—	7'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–

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Confidence Medium (61%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Japan win or draw

Most likely score

0:1 · 16.6%

Both teams to score

37%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

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Tunisia

LLLDW

Japan

LDWDL

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match on June 21, 2026, Tunisia will face Japan in a crucial Group stage encounter. Tunisia has shown resilience in their recent performances, with a solid defensive record, conceding an average of just 1.2 goals per match in their last five outings. Japan, known for their pace and technical flair, will look to exploit Tunisia's defense, having scored an average of 2 goals per match in their last five games. The key battle will likely occur in midfield, where Japan's ball control could challenge Tunisia's physical style. This match could prove pivotal for both teams' aspirations to progress in the tournament.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

12%

10%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

61%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Japan goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	12	17	15	8	3	1
1	5	12	9	5	2	1
2	2	3	2	1	1
3		1
4
5

↑ Tunisia goals · most likely 0–1 (16.6%)

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Players in form

Tunisia

No scorer data.

Japan

H. Morita 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

61%

Draw

27%

Home Win

12%

Both Teams To Score

63% BTTS No 37% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

34%

1.5

66%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

61%

Draw

27%

Home Win

12%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

84% Away (No Draw) 16% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

35% Away Win by 2+ 3% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

61% Away Scores More 27% Equal Goals 12% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

34%

1.5

66%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

63% BTTS No 37% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

22%

28%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.4%	16.6%	14.7%	8.0%	3.3%
1	5.1%	11.8%	8.5%	4.6%	1.9%
2	1.9%	3.0%	2.5%	1.3%	0.6%
3	0.4%	0.6%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%
4	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

38%

35%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

34%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Tunisia	Draw	Japan
Tunisia	6.3%	3.0%	1.8%
Draw	5.4%	19.0%	22.0%
Japan	0.6%	3.0%	38.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

56%

32%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

77%

0.5

23%

97%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

73%

0.5

27%

96%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

52%

1.5

48%

78%

2.5

22%

92%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

77%

1.5

23%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Tunisia vs Japan

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Tunisia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
25 Jun	H Netherlands	L	1 - 3
21 Jun	H Japan	L	0 - 4
15 Jun	A Sweden	L	5 - 1
31 Mar	A Canada	D	0 - 0
29 Mar	A Haiti	W	0 - 1

Japan — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
29 Jun	A Brazil	L	2 - 1
25 Jun	H Sweden	D	1 - 1
21 Jun	A Tunisia	W	0 - 4
14 Jun	A Netherlands	D	2 - 2
03 Feb	A Iran	L	2 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Japan

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Hajime Moriyasu

1 Suzuki

21 Itō

4 Itakura

22 Tomiyasu

13 Nakamura

7 Tanaka

24 Sano

10 Doan

15 Kamada

14 Ito

18 Ueda

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Zion Suzuki	G
22	Takehiro Tomiyasu	D
4	Ko Itakura	D
21	Hiroki Itō	D
10	Ritsu Doan	M
24	Kaishu Sano	M
7	Ao Tanaka	M
13	Keito Nakamura	M
14	Junya Ito	F
15	Daichi Kamada	F
18	Ayase Ueda	F

Substitutes

12	Keisuke Osako	G
23	Tomoki Hayakawa	G
20	Ayumu Seko	D
25	Junnosuke Suzuki	D
3	Shogo Taniguchi	D
16	Tsuyoshi Watanabe	D
2	Yukinari Sugawara	D
5	Yuto Nagatomo	D
17	Yuito Suzuki	M
11	Daizen Maeda	F
9	Keisuke Goto	F
26	Kento Shiogai	F
19	Koki Ogawa	F

Tunisia

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Herve Renard

16 Dahmen

4 Rekik

3 Talbi

6 Bronn

2 Abdi

17 Skhiri

25 Slimane

20 Valery

10 Mejbri

8 Saad

26 Tounekti

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
16	Aymen Dahmen	G
6	Dylan Bronn	D
3	Montassar Talbi	D
4	Omar Rekik	D
20	Yan Valery	M
25	Anis Ben Slimane	M
17	Ellyes Skhiri	M
2	Ali Abdi	M
8	Elias Saad	F
10	Hannibal Mejbri	F
26	Sebastian Tounekti	F

Substitutes

21	Amine Ben Hmida	D
11	Ismael Gharbi	F
19	Firas Chaouat	F
1	Abdelmouhib Chamakh	G
22	Sabri Ben Hessen	G
5	Adem Arous	D
23	Moataz Nefati	D
24	Raed Chikhaoui	D
7	Elias Achouri	M
15	Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud	M
12	Mortadha Ben Ouanes	M
13	Rani Khedira	M
9	Hazem Mastouri	F
14	Khalil Ayari	F
18	Rayan Elloumi	F