Scotland vs Morocco Prediction

World Cup · Group Stage - 2

Post on X

Morocco

Away

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

AI call Difficult Morocco win or draw

11%

28%

60%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Scotland vs Morocco prediction: Sportiko gives Scotland a 11% chance of winning, Morocco 60% and the draw 28%. Last updated 13 Jul 2026, 15:46.

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Match Report

Morocco secured a crucial World Cup group stage victory over Scotland, with Ismael Saibari's early strike proving the decisive moment. The midfielder struck in just the second minute to hand Morocco an immediate advantage, a lead they would protect for the remainder of the contest.

Scotland struggled to find a foothold throughout, with Morocco controlling possession at 59% and generating far greater danger with 12 total shots to the hosts' six. Crucially, Scotland failed to register a single shot on target, while Morocco managed two. The expected goals figures told a similar story — 0.95 to 0.54 in Morocco's favour — underlining how comprehensively they dominated the contest. Andy Robertson's yellow card in the 65th minute added to Scotland's frustrations as they chased the game. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Morocco win as the most likely outcome at 60%, a call that proved accurate.

Scotland's late wave of substitutions, including Che Adams and John McGinn, failed to unlock a resolute Moroccan defence. Morocco, who also rotated freely in the closing stages, held firm to claim three points and strengthen their group stage position.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 2'

Ismael Saibari assist: Brahim Díaz

▮ 23'

Issa Diop Yellow Card

HT 0–1

Kieran Tierney ⇄ Ben Gannon-Doak

60' ⇄

Andy Robertson Yellow Card

65' ▮

Che Adams ⇄ Lyndon Dykes

71' ⇄

Ryan Christie ⇄ Kenny McLean

71' ⇄

⇄ 84'

Ismael Saibari ⇄ Soufiane Rahimi

⇄ 84'

Bilal El Khannouss ⇄ Chemsdine Talbi

⇄ 84'

Brahim Díaz ⇄ Ayoube Amaimouni Echghouyab

Nathan Patterson ⇄ Tony Ralston

89' ⇄

John McGinn ⇄ Ross Stewart

89' ⇄

⇄ 90'

Azzedine Ounahi ⇄ Samir El Mourabet

FT 0–1

Scotland

Match Stats

Morocco

41% Ball Possession 59%

0.54 Expected Goals (xG) 0.95

6 Total Shots 12

0 Shots on Goal 2

3 Shots off Goal 6

3 Blocked Shots 4

5 Shots insidebox 9

1 Shots outsidebox 3

1 Corner Kicks 5

1 Offsides 0

10 Fouls 8

1 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 0

454 Total passes 671

388 Passes accurate 601

85% Passes % 90%

0.00 goals_prevented 0.00

Scotland

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
13 Jack Hendry D	7.7	96'	–	–	–	74 (69%)	2
19 Lewis Ferguson M	7.3	96'	–	–	–	66 (61%)	7
5 Grant Hanley D	7.0	96'	–	–	–	54 (50%)	–
1 Angus Gunn G	6.9	96'	–	–	–	28 (22%)	1
6 Kieran Tierney M	6.9	60'	–	–	–	14 (11%)	3
4 Scott McTominay F	6.6	96'	–	–	–	36 (31%)	1
7 John McGinn M	6.6	89'	–	–	1	14 (10%)	–
10 Che Adams F	6.6	71'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	1
23 Kenny McLean M	6.6	25'	–	–	–	15 (11%)	2
3 Andy Robertson D	6.5	96'	–	–	–	62 (51%)	–
9 Lyndon Dykes F	6.5	25'	–	–	1	7 (4%)	1
17 Ben Gannon-Doak F	6.3	36'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	–
22 Nathan Patterson D	6.2	89'	–	–	–	33 (27%)	1
11 Ryan Christie M	6.2	71'	–	–	1	26 (21%)	1
24 Tony Ralston D	—	7'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	–
14 Ross Stewart F	—	7'	–	–	–	2	–

Morocco

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
11 Ismael Saibari F	7.9	84'	1	–	1	25 (21%)	1
10 Brahim Díaz M	7.3	84'	–	1	–	41 (39%)	–
18 Chadi Riad D	7.2	96'	–	–	–	69 (66%)	–
3 Noussair Mazraoui D	7.2	96'	–	–	–	54 (50%)	–
24 Neil El Aynaoui M	6.9	96'	–	–	1	81 (77%)	5
23 Bilal El Khannouss M	6.9	84'	–	–	2	41 (34%)	1
14 Issa Diop D	6.7	96'	–	–	–	93 (79%)	–
8 Azzedine Ounahi M	6.7	90'	–	–	–	73 (66%)	1
2 Achraf Hakimi D	6.6	96'	–	–	2	81 (75%)	–
9 Soufiane Rahimi F	6.5	12'	–	–	–	1	–
21 Ayoube Amaimouni Echghouyab F	6.5	12'	–	–	1	3 (3%)	–
1 Bono G	6.3	96'	–	–	–	37 (24%)	–
6 Ayyoub Bouaddi M	6.3	96'	–	–	–	64 (59%)	1
7 Chemsdine Talbi F	6.3	12'	–	–	1	2 (2%)	–
15 Samir El Mourabet M	—	6'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	–

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Confidence Medium (60%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult Morocco win or draw

Most likely score

0:1 · 18.3%

Both teams to score

34%

Over 2.5 goals

34%

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Scotland

LLWLD

Morocco

LWDWW

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match on June 19, 2026, Scotland will face Morocco, presenting a clash of styles. Scotland, known for their organized defense and set-piece prowess, will look to leverage their home advantage and the experience of key players like Andrew Robertson. Conversely, Morocco boasts a dynamic attack led by Hakim Ziyech and Youssef En-Nesyri, capable of exploiting any defensive lapses. Historically, Morocco has shown resilience in major tournaments, while Scotland's recent form indicates a resurgence in their competitive edge. This match will likely hinge on Scotland's ability to contain Morocco's speed on the counter-attack, setting the stage for a closely contested encounter.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

11%

45%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

60%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Morocco goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	14	18	15	8	3	1
1	5	12	8	4	2
2	2	3	2	1
3
4
5

↑ Scotland goals · most likely 0–1 (18.2%)

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Players in form

Scotland

No scorer data.

Morocco

I. Saibari 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

60%

Draw

28%

Home Win

11%

Both Teams To Score

66% BTTS No 34% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

38%

1.5

62%

66%

2.5

34%

85%

3.5

15%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

60%

Draw

28%

Home Win

11%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

84% Away (No Draw) 16% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

33% Away Win by 2+ 3% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

60% Away Scores More 28% Equal Goals 11% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

38%

1.5

62%

66%

2.5

34%

85%

3.5

15%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

66% BTTS No 34% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

14%

24%

29%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	14.2%	18.3%	15.0%	7.7%	2.9%
1	5.4%	11.7%	8.0%	4.1%	1.6%
2	1.8%	2.8%	2.1%	1.1%	0.4%
3	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%
4	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

40%

35%

18%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

33%

34%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Scotland	Draw	Morocco
Scotland	6.2%	2.9%	1.6%
Draw	5.4%	20.5%	22.1%
Morocco	0.5%	2.9%	37.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

59%

31%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

79%

0.5

21%

98%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

75%

0.5

25%

97%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

22%

33%

25%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

85%

1.5

15%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Scotland vs Morocco

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Scotland — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
24 Jun	H Brazil	L	0 - 3
19 Jun	H Morocco	L	0 - 1
14 Jun	A Haiti	W	0 - 1
23 Jun	H Hungary	L	0 - 1
19 Jun	H Switzerland	D	1 - 1

Morocco — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
09 Jul	A France	L	2 - 0
04 Jul	A Canada	W	0 - 3
30 Jun	A Netherlands	D	1 - 1
24 Jun	H Haiti	W	4 - 2
19 Jun	A Scotland	W	0 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Scotland

Formation: 4-4-1-1 Coach: Steve Clarke

1 Gunn

3 Robertson

13 Hendry

5 Hanley

22 Patterson

6 Tierney

19 Ferguson

11 Christie

7 McGinn

4 McTominay

10 Adams

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Angus Gunn	G
22	Nathan Patterson	D
5	Grant Hanley	D
13	Jack Hendry	D
3	Andy Robertson	D
7	John McGinn	M
11	Ryan Christie	M
19	Lewis Ferguson	M
6	Kieran Tierney	M
4	Scott McTominay	F
10	Che Adams	F

Substitutes

17	Ben Gannon-Doak	F
12	Liam Kelly	G
21	Craig Gordon	G
2	Aaron Hickey	D
15	John Souttar	D
16	Dominic Hyam	D
24	Tony Ralston	D
26	Scott McKenna	D
8	Tyler Fletcher	M
23	Kenny McLean	M
25	Findlay Curtis	F
9	Lyndon Dykes	F
14	Ross Stewart	F
18	George Hirst	F
20	Lawrence Shankland	F

Morocco

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Mohamed Ouahbi

1 Bono

3 Mazraoui

18 Riad

14 Diop

2 Hakimi

24 Aynaoui

6 Bouaddi

23 Khannouss

8 Ounahi

10 Díaz

11 Saibari

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Bono	G
2	Achraf Hakimi	D
14	Issa Diop	D
18	Chadi Riad	D
3	Noussair Mazraoui	D
6	Ayyoub Bouaddi	M
24	Neil El Aynaoui	M
10	Brahim Díaz	M
8	Azzedine Ounahi	M
23	Bilal El Khannouss	M
11	Ismael Saibari	F

Substitutes

22	Ahmed Reda Tagnaouti	G
12	Munir El Kajoui	G
26	Anass Salah-Eddine	D
5	Marwane Saadane	D
25	Redouane Halhal	D
19	Youssef Belammari	D
13	Zakaria El Ouahdi	D
17	Amine Sbai	F
7	Chemsdine Talbi	F
16	Gessime Yassine	F
15	Samir El Mourabet	M
4	Sofyan Amrabat	M
20	Ayoub El Kaabi	F
21	Ayoube Amaimouni Echghouyab	F
9	Soufiane Rahimi	F