USA vs Australia Prediction

World Cup · Group Stage - 2

Post on X

Australia

Away

Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington

AI call USA or draw

43%

33%

24%

Home Win Draw Away Win

USA vs Australia prediction: Sportiko gives USA a 43% chance of winning, Australia 24% and the draw 33%. Last updated 13 Jul 2026, 15:46.

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Match Report

USA secured a comfortable 2–0 victory over Australia in their second World Cup group stage match, with both goals arriving before the break to put the Americans firmly in control. Cameron Burgess handed the hosts an early advantage with an own goal in the 11th minute, and Alexander Freeman doubled the lead just before half-time with a well-taken finish in the 43rd minute. Our pre-match AI model had rated a USA win as the most likely outcome at 43%, a call that proved correct.

The result was notable given how the underlying statistics told a different story — Australia dominated possession at 62% and generated significantly more expected goals (1.30 to 0.44), yet the Socceroos were unable to convert their opportunities into goals. Both sides managed just two shots on target across the 90 minutes.

The second half was largely uneventful in terms of scoring, though both benches were heavily utilised with five substitutions apiece. Discipline became an issue late on, with a flurry of yellow cards shown in the closing stages to players from both sides, including Folarin Balogun, Harry Souttar, Jacob Italiano, and Chris Richards.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Cameron Burgess Own Goal

11' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 16'

Jordan Bos Yellow Card

▮ 32'

Alessandro Circati Yellow Card

Alexander Freeman

43' ⚽ 2–0

HT 2–0

⇄ 46'

Cameron Burgess ⇄ Jason Geria

⇄ 46'

Nishan Velupillay ⇄ Connor Metcalfe

⇄ 46'

Mohamed Touré ⇄ Nestory Irankunda

Antonee Robinson Yellow Card

56' ▮

⇄ 61'

Mathew Leckie ⇄ Cristian Volpato

Ricardo Pepi ⇄ Sebastian Berhalter

74' ⇄

⇄ 78'

Paul Okon-Engstler ⇄ Jackson Irvine

Sergiño Dest ⇄ Joe Scally

80' ⇄

Antonee Robinson ⇄ Auston Trusty

80' ⇄

▮ 88'

Harry Souttar Yellow Card

Folarin Balogun Yellow Card

89' ▮

▮ 89'

Jacob Italiano Yellow Card

Chris Richards Yellow Card

90+3' ▮

Folarin Balogun ⇄ Haji Wright

90+6' ⇄

Weston McKennie ⇄ Giovanni Reyna

90+6' ⇄

FT 2–0

USA

Match Stats

Australia

62% Ball Possession 38%

1.30 Expected Goals (xG) 0.44

10 Total Shots 5

2 Shots on Goal 2

2 Shots off Goal 3

6 Blocked Shots 0

8 Shots insidebox 3

2 Shots outsidebox 2

7 Corner Kicks 4

Offsides

12 Fouls 16

3 Yellow Cards 4

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 1

516 Total passes 301

444 Passes accurate 219

86% Passes % 73%

-0.91 goals_prevented -0.91

USA

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
16 Alexander Freeman D	8.2	96'	1	–	1	65 (59%)	4
17 Malik Tillman M	7.3	96'	–	–	–	40 (35%)	3
3 Chris Richards D	7.2	96'	–	–	–	95 (91%)	3
5 Antonee Robinson M	7.2	80'	–	–	–	44 (39%)	3
13 Tim Ream D	6.9	96'	–	–	–	76 (68%)	–
4 Tyler Adams M	6.9	96'	–	–	–	67 (58%)	4
2 Sergiño Dest M	6.9	80'	–	–	1	24 (23%)	–
8 Weston McKennie M	6.9	96'	–	–	1	35 (29%)	3
24 Matthew Freese G	6.6	96'	–	–	–	23 (11%)	–
23 Joe Scally D	6.6	16'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	–
14 Sebastian Berhalter M	6.6	22'	–	–	–	9 (6%)	–
20 Folarin Balogun F	6.5	96'	–	–	–	14 (9%)	–
6 Auston Trusty D	6.3	16'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
9 Ricardo Pepi F	6.2	74'	–	–	1	17 (12%)	–

Australia

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
3 Alessandro Circati D	7.3	96'	–	–	1	31 (22%)	3
20 Cristian Volpato M	6.9	35'	–	–	1	16 (14%)	–
13 Aiden O'Neill M	6.7	96'	–	–	–	37 (26%)	1
17 Nestory Irankunda F	6.7	51'	–	–	–	8 (6%)	–
6 Jason Geria D	6.7	51'	–	–	–	15 (10%)	1
24 Paul Okon-Engstler M	6.6	78'	–	–	–	33 (31%)	1
9 Mohamed Touré F	6.6	45'	–	–	1	7 (6%)	1
18 Patrick Beach G	6.3	96'	–	–	–	14 (9%)	–
19 Harry Souttar D	6.3	96'	–	–	–	31 (21%)	–
5 Jordan Bos D	6.3	96'	–	–	–	24 (21%)	1
8 Connor Metcalfe M	6.3	51'	–	–	1	15 (10%)	1
22 Jackson Irvine M	6.3	18'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	–
7 Mathew Leckie M	6.2	61'	–	–	1	12 (7%)	–
23 Nishan Velupillay M	6.2	45'	–	–	–	8 (3%)	2
4 Jacob Italiano D	6.0	96'	–	–	–	26 (20%)	1
21 Cameron Burgess D	5.3	45'	–	–	–	19 (9%)	–

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Confidence Low (43%)

At a glance

Our lean

USA or draw

Most likely score

0:0 · 15%

Both teams to score

41%

Over 2.5 goals

33%

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USA

LWLWW

Australia

DDLWL

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match on June 19, 2026, the USA will host Australia, presenting a clash between two teams with contrasting styles. The USA has demonstrated strong defensive organization, allowing only 0.9 goals per match in recent tournaments, while Australia’s attack has shown resilience, scoring an average of 1.5 goals per game. Historically, the USA has a slight edge with a 5-2 record against Australia in competitive fixtures. Key players to watch include USA's attacking midfielder, who has been pivotal in creating scoring opportunities, and Australia's forward, known for his goal-scoring prowess. The match promises to be a tactical battle, with the USA aiming to leverage home advantage against an experienced Australian side.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

43%

45%

Draw

33%

45%

Away

24%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Australia goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	15	9	5	1
1	14	15	5	2
2	9	8	3	1
3	4	3	1
4	1	1
5

↑ USA goals · most likely 0–0 (15.0%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

33%

Away Win

24%

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS No 41% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

15%

0.5

85%

38%

1.5

62%

67%

2.5

33%

85%

3.5

15%

95%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

33%

Away Win

24%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

64% Home (No Draw) 36% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

19% Home Win by 2+ 8% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

43% Home Scores More 33% Equal Goals 24% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

15%

0.5

85%

38%

1.5

62%

67%

2.5

33%

85%

3.5

15%

95%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS No 41% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

15%

23%

29%

18%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	15.0%	9.3%	4.6%	1.3%	0.3%
1	14.1%	14.8%	5.5%	1.5%	0.3%
2	9.4%	7.8%	3.2%	0.9%	0.2%
3	3.7%	3.1%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%
4	1.1%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

41%

35%

18%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

35%

34%

21%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	USA	Draw	Australia
USA	25.3%	3.9%	1.0%
Draw	16.9%	23.4%	10.3%
Australia	1.6%	4.0%	13.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

67%

1.5

33%

88%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

30%

36%

22%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

44%

36%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

92%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: USA vs Australia

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

USA — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Jul	H Belgium	L	1 - 4
02 Jul	H Bosnia & Herzegovina	W	2 - 0
26 Jun	A Türkiye	L	3 - 2
19 Jun	H Australia	W	2 - 0
13 Jun	H Paraguay	W	4 - 1

Australia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
03 Jul	H Egypt	D	1 - 1
26 Jun	A Paraguay	D	0 - 0
19 Jun	A USA	L	2 - 0
14 Jun	H Türkiye	W	2 - 0
31 May	A Mexico	L	1 - 0

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Australia

Formation: 5-4-1 Coach: Tony Popovic

18 Beach

5 Bos

21 Burgess

19 Souttar

3 Circati

4 Italiano

23 Velupillay

24 Okon-Engstler

13 O'Neill

7 Leckie

9 Touré

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
18	Patrick Beach	G
4	Jacob Italiano	D
3	Alessandro Circati	D
19	Harry Souttar	D
21	Cameron Burgess	D
5	Jordan Bos	D
7	Mathew Leckie	M
13	Aiden O'Neill	M
24	Paul Okon-Engstler	M
23	Nishan Velupillay	M
9	Mohamed Touré	F

Substitutes

6	Jason Geria	D
8	Connor Metcalfe	M
17	Nestory Irankunda	F
20	Cristian Volpato	M
1	Mathew Ryan	G
12	Paul Izzo	G
2	Miloš Degenek	D
16	Aziz Behich	D
25	Lucas Herrington	D
15	Kai Trewin	D
14	Cameron Devlin	M
22	Jackson Irvine	M
10	Ajdin Hrustić	M
11	Awer Mabil	M
26	Tete Yengi	F

USA

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: Mauricio Pochettino

24 Freese

13 Ream

3 Richards

16 Freeman

5 Robinson

17 Tillman

4 Adams

8 McKennie

2 Dest

9 Pepi

20 Balogun

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
24	Matthew Freese	G
16	Alexander Freeman	D
3	Chris Richards	D
13	Tim Ream	D
2	Sergiño Dest	M
8	Weston McKennie	M
4	Tyler Adams	M
17	Malik Tillman	M
5	Antonee Robinson	M
20	Folarin Balogun	F
9	Ricardo Pepi	F

Substitutes

1	Matt Turner	G
25	Chris Brady	G
6	Auston Trusty	D
12	Miles Robinson	D
22	Mark McKenzie	D
23	Joe Scally	D
18	Maximilian Arfsten	M
7	Giovanni Reyna	M
14	Sebastian Berhalter	M
15	Cristian Roldán	M
11	Brenden Aaronson	M
21	Tim Weah	F
26	Alex Zendejas	F
19	Haji Wright	F