Portugal vs Congo DR Prediction

World Cup · Group Stage - 1

Post on X

Congo DR

Away

AI call Portugal to win or draw

76%

20%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Portugal vs Congo DR prediction: Sportiko gives Portugal a 76% chance of winning, Congo DR 4% and the draw 20%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Match Report

Portugal were quickest out of the blocks, with João Neves breaking the deadlock in the sixth minute to give the European side an early advantage. Despite dominating possession — eventually finishing with 75% of the ball — Portugal struggled to convert that control into clear-cut chances, managing just one shot on target across the entire match. Congo DR, compact and disciplined, grew into the game and were rewarded deep in first-half stoppage time when Yoane Wissa equalised in the fifth minute of added time, ensuring the sides went in level at the break.

The second half brought a flurry of substitutions from both benches but little in the way of genuine goalmouth action. Portugal's xG of just 0.62 — lower than Congo DR's 0.82 — underlined how rarely they truly threatened, despite their territorial dominance. Congo DR's eight total shots to Portugal's seven further reflected a contest far more balanced than the possession figures suggested.

The draw means Portugal drop points in their opening Group Stage fixture. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Portugal win at 76% — a reminder that football rarely follows the script.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

João Neves assist: Pedro Neto

6' ⚽ 1–0

Bernardo Silva Yellow Card

13' ▮

▮ 32'

Chancel Mbemba Yellow Card

⚽ 1–1 45+5'

Yoane Wissa assist: Arthur Masuaku

HT 1–1

Bernardo Silva ⇄ Francisco Conceição

46' ⇄

⇄ 57'

Ngal'ayel Mukau ⇄ Noah Sadiki

Pedro Neto ⇄ Rafael Leão

71' ⇄

Nuno Mendes ⇄ Nélson Semedo

72' ⇄

⇄ 74'

Edo Kayembe ⇄ Charles Pickel

⇄ 74'

Arthur Masuaku ⇄ Joris Kayembe

Vitinha ⇄ Gonçalo Ramos

83' ⇄

⇄ 85'

Cédric Bakambu ⇄ Simon Banza

⇄ 85'

Aaron Wan-Bissaka ⇄ Gedeon Kalulu

Nélson Semedo Yellow Card

88' ▮

Tomás Araújo Yellow Card

90+2' ▮

FT 1–1

Portugal

Match Stats

Congo DR

75% Ball Possession 25%

0.62 Expected Goals (xG) 0.82

7 Total Shots 8

1 Shots on Goal 2

4 Shots off Goal 3

2 Blocked Shots 3

5 Shots insidebox 2

2 Shots outsidebox 6

4 Corner Kicks 4

3 Offsides 2

9 Fouls 10

3 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 0

772 Total passes 250

713 Passes accurate 197

92% Passes % 79%

-0.47 goals_prevented -0.47

Portugal

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
15 João Neves M	8.0	93'	1	–	1	86 (84%)	1
8 Bruno Fernandes M	7.9	93'	–	–	1	75 (66%)	3
23 Vitinha M	7.5	83'	–	–	–	128 (121%)	–
13 Renato Veiga D	7.3	93'	–	–	–	91 (88%)	2
18 Pedro Neto M	7.0	71'	–	1	–	41 (39%)	–
1 Diogo Costa G	6.9	93'	–	–	–	28 (23%)	–
4 Tomás Araújo D	6.9	93'	–	–	–	102 (95%)	–
26 Francisco Conceição F	6.6	48'	–	–	–	26 (24%)	–
25 Nuno Mendes D	6.5	72'	–	–	–	69 (62%)	1
2 Nélson Semedo D	6.5	21'	–	–	–	14 (12%)	–
10 Bernardo Silva M	6.3	45'	–	–	–	18 (17%)	1
7 Cristiano Ronaldo F	6.3	93'	–	–	3	21 (19%)	–
9 Gonçalo Ramos F	6.3	10'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
17 Rafael Leão F	6.3	22'	–	–	–	9 (9%)	–
20 João Cancelo D	6.2	93'	–	–	–	62 (52%)	2

Congo DR

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
20 Yoane Wissa F	7.2	93'	1	–	2	18 (16%)	1
26 Arthur Masuaku D	6.9	74'	–	1	–	17 (13%)	1
25 Edo Kayembe M	6.9	74'	–	–	1	18 (16%)	3
17 Cédric Bakambu F	6.9	85'	–	–	1	11 (10%)	–
12 Joris Kayembe D	6.9	19'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	1
14 Noah Sadiki M	6.9	36'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	3
6 Ngal'ayel Mukau M	6.7	57'	–	–	–	22 (19%)	–
8 Samuel Moutoussamy M	6.7	93'	–	–	–	25 (21%)	2
24 Gedeon Kalulu D	6.7	8'	–	–	–	6 (4%)	1
2 Aaron Wan-Bissaka D	6.6	85'	–	–	–	19 (17%)	2
4 Axel Tuanzebe D	6.5	93'	–	–	–	17 (13%)	1
22 Chancel Mbemba D	6.3	93'	–	–	–	30 (22%)	2
3 Steve Kapuadi D	6.3	93'	–	–	1	21 (18%)	1
18 Charles Pickel M	6.3	19'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	–
23 Simon Banza F	6.3	8'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
1 Lionel Mpasi Nzau G	6.0	93'	–	–	–	24 (9%)	–

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Confidence High (76%)

At a glance

Our lean

Portugal to win or draw

Most likely score

2:0 · 19.8%

Both teams to score

25%

Over 2.5 goals

40%

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Portugal

LWDWD

Congo DR

WLWLD

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match on June 17, 2026, Portugal will face Congo DR. Portugal's squad boasts a wealth of talent, including elite players like Cristiano Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes, who have consistently proven their scoring abilities. Historically, Portugal has a strong record in international tournaments, while Congo DR has struggled against top-tier teams, often showing vulnerabilities in defense. Expect Portugal to dominate possession and create numerous scoring opportunities, while Congo DR will need a solid defensive strategy and quick counter-attacks to challenge the Portuguese backline. Overall, Portugal is favored to secure a convincing win.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Congo DR goals →

	0	1	2
0	11	2	1
1	19	7	1
2	20	7	1
3	13	4	1
4	6	2
5	3	1

↑ Portugal goals · most likely 2–0 (19.8%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

76%

Draw

20%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

75% BTTS No 25% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

33%

1.5

67%

60%

2.5

40%

81%

3.5

19%

93%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

76%

Draw

20%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

94% Home (No Draw) 6% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

50% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

76% Home Scores More 20% Equal Goals 4% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

33%

1.5

67%

60%

2.5

40%

81%

3.5

19%

93%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

75% BTTS No 25% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

22%

28%

21%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.9%	2.5%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
1	19.1%	7.5%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%
2	19.8%	6.5%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%
3	13.1%	4.3%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
4	6.5%	2.1%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

72%

1.5

28%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

36%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

63%

1.5

37%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

34%

23%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Portugal	Draw	Congo DR
Portugal	51.2%	1.7%	0.2%
Draw	24.6%	14.7%	2.2%
Congo DR	1.4%	1.7%	2.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

42%

1.5

58%

69%

2.5

31%

87%

3.5

13%

Home Exact Goals

14%

28%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

70%

1.5

30%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

72%

24%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

86%

0.5

14%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

84%

0.5

16%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Portugal vs Congo DR

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Portugal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Jul	H Spain	L	0 - 1
02 Jul	H Croatia	W	2 - 1
27 Jun	A Colombia	D	0 - 0
23 Jun	H Uzbekistan	W	5 - 0
17 Jun	H Congo DR	D	1 - 1

Congo DR — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
24 Sep	H Equatorial Guinea	W	2 - 0
01 Jul	A England	L	2 - 1
27 Jun	H Uzbekistan	W	3 - 1
24 Jun	A Colombia	L	1 - 0
17 Jun	A Portugal	D	1 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Portugal

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Roberto Martinez

1 Costa

25 Mendes

13 Veiga

4 Araújo

20 Cancelo

23 Vitinha

15 Neves

18 Neto

8 Fernandes

10 Silva

7 Ronaldo

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Diogo Costa	G
20	João Cancelo	D
4	Tomás Araújo	D
13	Renato Veiga	D
25	Nuno Mendes	D
15	João Neves	M
23	Vitinha	M
10	Bernardo Silva	M
8	Bruno Fernandes	M
18	Pedro Neto	M
7	Cristiano Ronaldo	F

Substitutes

26	Francisco Conceição	F
2	Nélson Semedo	D
17	Rafael Leão	F
12	José Sá	G
22	Rui Silva	G
3	Rúben Dias	D
5	Diogo Dalot	D
14	Gonçalo Inácio	D
6	Matheus Nunes	M
24	Samú Costa	M
21	Rúben Neves	M
16	Francisco Trincão	F
19	Gonçalo Guedes	F
9	Gonçalo Ramos	F
11	João Félix	F

Congo DR

Formation: 5-3-2 Coach: S. Desabre

1 Nzau

26 Masuaku

3 Kapuadi

4 Tuanzebe

22 Mbemba

2 Wan-Bissaka

25 Kayembe

8 Moutoussamy

6 Mukau

17 Bakambu

20 Wissa

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Lionel Mpasi Nzau	G
2	Aaron Wan-Bissaka	D
22	Chancel Mbemba	D
4	Axel Tuanzebe	D
3	Steve Kapuadi	D
26	Arthur Masuaku	D
6	Ngal'ayel Mukau	M
8	Samuel Moutoussamy	M
25	Edo Kayembe	M
20	Yoane Wissa	F
17	Cédric Bakambu	F

Substitutes

14	Noah Sadiki	M
16	Timothy Fayulu	G
21	Matthieu Epolo	G
5	Dylan Batubinsika	D
12	Joris Kayembe	D
24	Gedeon Kalulu	D
7	Nathanaël Mbuku	F
10	Théo Bongonda	M
15	Aaron Tshibola	M
18	Charles Pickel	M
9	Brian Cipenga	F
11	Gaël Kakuta	M
13	Meschak Elia	F
19	Fiston Mayele	F
23	Simon Banza	F