France vs Senegal Prediction

World Cup · Group Stage - 1

Post on X

Senegal

Away

AI call Difficult France win or draw

61%

27%

12%

Home Win Draw Away Win

France vs Senegal prediction: Sportiko gives France a 61% chance of winning, Senegal 12% and the draw 27%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Match Report

France dominated possession and created the clearer chances throughout, but the first half ended goalless despite their territorial advantage. The match remained tight heading into the final quarter, with Senegal limiting France to just two shots on target before the hour mark.

The deadlock was broken on 66 minutes when Kylian Mbappé opened the scoring, and France quickly doubled their lead through Bradley Barcola in the 82nd minute. Senegal responded with a flurry of substitutions in search of a way back into the game, and they were rewarded in stoppage time when Ibrahim Mbaye pulled one back in the 90th minute to briefly raise hopes of a comeback. Those hopes were extinguished almost immediately, however, as Mbappé added his second of the night in the 91st minute to seal a comfortable 3–1 victory.

France's superiority was reflected in the statistics, with an expected goals figure of 1.89 compared to Senegal's 0.50, and eight shots on target to two. The result was in line with our pre-match AI model, which had rated a France win as the most likely outcome at 61%.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

HT 0–0

Kylian Mbappé assist: Michael Olise

66' ⚽ 1–0

⇄ 75'

Ismaïla Sarr ⇄ Ibrahim Mbaye

⇄ 76'

Lamine Camara ⇄ Habib Diarra

Ousmane Dembélé ⇄ Bradley Barcola

80' ⇄

Bradley Barcola assist: Adrien Rabiot

82' ⚽ 2–0

⇄ 83'

Pape Gueye ⇄ Iliman Ndiaye

⇄ 83'

Nicolas Jackson ⇄ Ahmadou Bamba Dieng

Désiré Doué ⇄ Rayan Cherki

87' ⇄

⇄ 88'

Idrissa Gana Gueye ⇄ Pathé Ismaël Ciss

⚽ 2–1 90+5'

Ibrahim Mbaye assist: Iliman Ndiaye

Kylian Mbappé

90+6' ⚽ 3–1

FT 3–1

France

Match Stats

Senegal

54% Ball Possession 46%

1.89 Expected Goals (xG) 0.50

11 Total Shots 6

8 Shots on Goal 2

1 Shots off Goal 3

2 Blocked Shots 1

7 Shots insidebox 4

4 Shots outsidebox 2

6 Corner Kicks 4

1 Offsides 3

5 Fouls 9

Yellow Cards

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 5

569 Total passes 496

500 Passes accurate 426

88% Passes % 86%

-1.11 goals_prevented -1.11

France

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Kylian Mbappé F	8.2	99'	2	–	4	16 (15%)	–
4 Dayot Upamecano D	7.9	99'	–	–	–	79 (69%)	6
11 Michael Olise M	7.9	99'	–	1	2	56 (50%)	2
12 Bradley Barcola F	7.9	19'	1	–	1	7 (6%)	–
14 Adrien Rabiot M	7.5	99'	–	1	–	50 (46%)	–
8 Aurélien Tchouaméni M	7.3	99'	–	–	–	70 (62%)	3
7 Ousmane Dembélé M	7.0	80'	–	–	–	34 (26%)	1
17 William Saliba D	6.7	99'	–	–	–	72 (69%)	–
20 Désiré Doué M	6.7	87'	–	–	2	36 (31%)	–
24 Rayan Cherki M	6.7	12'	–	–	–	6 (4%)	–
19 Theo Hernández D	6.5	99'	–	–	–	48 (45%)	2
16 Mike Maignan G	6.3	99'	–	–	–	38 (28%)	–
5 Jules Koundé D	6.3	99'	–	–	–	57 (49%)	4

Senegal

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
20 Ibrahim Mbaye F	7.3	24'	1	–	1	8 (7%)	–
15 Krépin Diatta D	6.9	99'	–	–	–	49 (43%)	5
26 Pape Gueye M	6.9	83'	–	–	–	48 (41%)	–
16 Edouard Mendy G	6.7	99'	–	–	–	36 (31%)	–
6 Pathé Ismaël Ciss M	6.7	11'	–	–	–	14 (12%)	–
13 Iliman Ndiaye F	6.7	16'	–	1	–	9 (8%)	–
5 Idrissa Gana Gueye M	6.6	88'	–	–	–	61 (56%)	2
19 Moussa Niakhaté D	6.5	99'	–	–	–	81 (74%)	–
9 Ahmadou Bamba Dieng F	6.5	16'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
18 Ismaïla Sarr M	6.3	75'	–	–	2	14 (11%)	–
10 Sadio Mané M	6.3	99'	–	–	1	30 (26%)	–
21 Habib Diarra M	6.3	23'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	–
3 Kalidou Koulibaly D	6.2	99'	–	–	–	44 (37%)	4
25 El Hadji Malick Diouf D	6.2	99'	–	–	–	43 (31%)	2
8 Lamine Camara M	6.2	76'	–	–	–	30 (26%)	–
11 Nicolas Jackson F	5.9	83'	–	–	1	17 (12%)	1

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Confidence Medium (61%)

At a glance

Our lean

Difficult France win or draw

Most likely score

1:0 · 15.8%

Both teams to score

39%

Over 2.5 goals

39%

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France

LLWWW

Senegal

LWLLD

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match on June 16, 2026, France faces Senegal, showcasing a clash of European and African footballing prowess. France enters as one of the tournament favorites, bolstered by a deep squad featuring stars like Kylian Mbappé and Antoine Griezmann, who combined for over 30 goals in the qualifying rounds. Senegal, while less heralded, boasts a strong squad led by Sadio Mané, who is crucial in attack and has experience in high-stakes matches. Historically, France has a favorable record against African teams in World Cups, but Senegal's resilience and tactical discipline could pose a significant challenge. The match promises to be an exciting encounter with potential for both teams to showcase their strengths.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Senegal goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	12	5	2
1	16	12	3	1
2	14	9	3	1
3	8	5	1
4	3	2	1
5	1	1

↑ France goals · most likely 1–0 (15.8%)

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Players in form

France

Kylian Mbappé 10 gls

O. Dembélé 6 gls

Senegal

I. Sarr 4 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

27%

Away Win

12%

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS No 39% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

33%

1.5

67%

61%

2.5

39%

81%

3.5

19%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

27%

Away Win

12%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

83% Home (No Draw) 17% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

35% Home Win by 2+ 3% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

61% Home Scores More 27% Equal Goals 12% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

33%

1.5

67%

61%

2.5

39%

81%

3.5

19%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS No 39% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

21%

28%

20%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.8%	5.1%	2.0%	0.4%	0.1%
1	15.8%	12.0%	3.3%	0.7%	0.1%
2	14.2%	8.8%	2.7%	0.6%	0.1%
3	7.8%	4.8%	1.5%	0.3%	0.1%
4	3.2%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

35%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

30%

34%

24%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	France	Draw	Senegal
France	38.5%	3.1%	0.6%
Draw	21.7%	18.6%	5.6%
Senegal	1.9%	3.2%	6.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

19%

0.5

81%

51%

1.5

49%

78%

2.5

22%

92%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

19%

32%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

97%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

54%

33%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

76%

0.5

24%

97%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

71%

0.5

29%

95%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: France vs Senegal

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

France — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Jul	H England	L	4 - 6
14 Jul	H Spain	L	0 - 2
09 Jul	H Morocco	W	2 - 0
04 Jul	A Paraguay	W	0 - 1
30 Jun	H Sweden	W	3 - 0

Senegal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Jul	A Belgium	L	3 - 2
26 Jun	H Iraq	W	5 - 0
23 Jun	A Norway	L	3 - 2
16 Jun	A France	L	3 - 1
09 Jun	A Saudi Arabia	D	0 - 0

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

France

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Didier Deschamps

16 Maignan

19 Hernández

17 Saliba

4 Upamecano

5 Koundé

14 Rabiot

8 Tchouaméni

20 Doué

7 Dembélé

11 Olise

10 Mbappé

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
16	Mike Maignan	G
5	Jules Koundé	D
4	Dayot Upamecano	D
17	William Saliba	D
19	Theo Hernández	D
8	Aurélien Tchouaméni	M
14	Adrien Rabiot	M
11	Michael Olise	M
7	Ousmane Dembélé	M
20	Désiré Doué	M
10	Kylian Mbappé	F

Substitutes

1	Brice Samba	G
23	Robin Risser	G
26	Maxence Lacroix	D
21	Lucas Hernández	D
3	Lucas Digne	D
15	Ibrahima Konaté	D
2	Malo Gusto	D
6	Manu Koné	M
13	N'Golo Kanté	M
24	Rayan Cherki	M
18	Warren Zaïre-Emery	M
25	Maghnes Akliouche	M
9	Marcus Thuram	F
22	Jean-Philippe Mateta	F
12	Bradley Barcola	F

Senegal

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Bouna Thiaw Pape

16 Mendy

25 Diouf

19 Niakhaté

3 Koulibaly

15 Diatta

26 Gueye

5 Gueye

10 Mané

8 Camara

18 Sarr

11 Jackson

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
16	Edouard Mendy	G
15	Krépin Diatta	D
3	Kalidou Koulibaly	D
19	Moussa Niakhaté	D
25	El Hadji Malick Diouf	D
5	Idrissa Gana Gueye	M
26	Pape Gueye	M
18	Ismaïla Sarr	M
8	Lamine Camara	M
10	Sadio Mané	M
11	Nicolas Jackson	F

Substitutes

1	Yehvann Diouf	G
23	Mory Diaw	G
14	Ismail Jakobs	D
24	Antoine Mendy	D
2	Mamadou Sarr	D
4	Abdoulaye Seck	D
17	Pape Matar Sarr	M
6	Pathé Ismaël Ciss	M
13	Iliman Ndiaye	F
21	Habib Diarra	M
22	Bara Sapoko Ndiaye	M
12	Cherif Ndiaye	F
7	Assane Diao	F
20	Ibrahim Mbaye	F
9	Ahmadou Bamba Dieng	F