Iran vs New Zealand Prediction

World Cup · Group Stage - 1

Post on X

New Zealand

Away

AI call Iran to win or draw

74%

20%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Iran vs New Zealand prediction: Sportiko gives Iran a 74% chance of winning, New Zealand 6% and the draw 20%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 73%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%

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Match Report

Iran and New Zealand played out a 2–2 draw in their World Cup Group Stage opener, with both sides trading goals in an entertaining contest. New Zealand struck first in the seventh minute, only for Iran to level before the half-hour mark, sending the teams into the break level at 1–1.

The second half brought more drama in quick succession. Iran edged ahead just past the hour mark with a goal on 54 minutes, but New Zealand responded almost immediately, equalising on 64 minutes to restore parity. Both managers turned to their benches throughout the second period, with a flurry of substitutions reshaping the contest as fatigue set in. A yellow card in the closing stages added late tension, though neither side could find a winner.

The point leaves both nations with work to do in the group. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Iran win as most likely at 74%, a call that ultimately proved wide of the mark as New Zealand showed enough resilience to earn a share of the spoils.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 7'

32' ⚽ 1–1

HT 1–1

46' ⇄

53' ⇄

⚽ 1–2 54'

64' ⚽ 2–2

65' ⇄

⇄ 68'

⇄ 78'

80' ⇄

Yellow Card

89' ▮

⇄ 90+2'

FT 2–2

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Confidence High (74%)

At a glance

Our lean

Iran to win or draw

Most likely score

2:0 · 18.1%

Both teams to score

31%

Over 2.5 goals

43%

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Iran

LDDDL

New Zealand

LLDLD

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match on June 16, 2026, Iran will host New Zealand, marking a critical encounter for both teams. Iran, typically strong defensively, has shown resilience in qualifying matches, boasting a solid backline and a midfield capable of controlling possession. New Zealand, while not historically a football powerhouse, has made strides with a more organized approach and effective counter-attacking play. Key players like Iran’s Sardar Azmoun could exploit defensive gaps, while New Zealand’s Chris Wood may pose a physical threat upfront. The match is likely to hinge on Iran's ability to break through New Zealand's disciplined defense and capitalize on set pieces.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

New Zealand goals →

	0	1	2
0	10	3	1
1	17	9	2
2	18	8	2
3	12	5	1
4	6	3	1
5	2	1

↑ Iran goals · most likely 2–0 (18.1%)

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Match Result

Home Win

74%

Draw

20%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

69% BTTS No 31% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

30%

1.5

70%

57%

2.5

43%

79%

3.5

21%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

74%

Draw

20%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

93% Home (No Draw) 7% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

48% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

74% Home Scores More 20% Equal Goals 6% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

30%

1.5

70%

57%

2.5

43%

79%

3.5

21%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

69% BTTS No 31% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

20%

27%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.9%	2.8%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%
1	17.0%	8.5%	1.6%	0.2%	0.0%
2	18.1%	7.6%	1.6%	0.2%	0.0%
3	12.1%	5.1%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%
4	6.1%	2.6%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

35%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

33%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Iran	Draw	New Zealand
Iran	50.0%	2.1%	0.3%
Draw	23.6%	14.4%	2.8%
New Zealand	1.6%	2.1%	3.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

41%

1.5

59%

69%

2.5

31%

87%

3.5

13%

Home Exact Goals

14%

27%

28%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

93%

1.5

99%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

66%

28%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

83%

0.5

17%

98%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

79%

0.5

21%

98%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Iran vs New Zealand

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Iran — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
24 Sep	A Uzbekistan	L	3 - 1
27 Jun	A Egypt	D	1 - 1
21 Jun	A Belgium	D	0 - 0
16 Jun	H New Zealand	D	2 - 2
07 Feb	H Qatar	L	2 - 3

New Zealand — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
27 Jun	H Belgium	L	1 - 5
22 Jun	H Egypt	L	1 - 3
16 Jun	A Iran	D	2 - 2
03 Jun	A Haiti	L	4 - 0
30 Mar	H Chile	D	0 - 0

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Iran

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Amir Ghalenoei

1 Beiranvand

5 Mohammadi

19 Nemati

4 Khalilzadeh

23 Rezaeian

17 Yousefi

6 Ezatolahi

14 Ghoddos

8 Mohebi

9 Taremi

20 Moghanlou

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Alireza Beiranvand	G
23	Ramin Rezaeian	D
4	Shoja Khalilzadeh	D
19	Ali Nemati	D
5	Milad Mohammadi	D
8	Mohammad Mohebi	M
14	Saman Ghoddos	M
6	Saeid Ezatolahi	M
17	Aria Yousefi	M
20	Shahriar Moghanlou	F
9	Mehdi Taremi	F

Substitutes

10	Mehdi Ghayedi	F
11	Ali Alipour	F
12	Payam Niazmand	G
22	Hossein Hosseini	G
2	Saleh Hardani	D
13	Hossein Kanaani	D
3	Ehsan Hajsafi	D
15	Roozbeh Cheshmi	M
25	Danial Eiri	D
26	Amirmohammad Razzaghinia	M
21	Mohammad Ghorbani	M
16	Mahdi Torabi	M
18	Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh	F
7	Alireza Jahanbakhsh	F
24	Dennis Eckert Ayensa	F