Sweden vs Tunisia Prediction

World Cup · Group Stage - 1

Post on X

Tunisia

Away

Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe

AI call Sweden or draw

43%

31%

27%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Sweden vs Tunisia prediction: Sportiko gives Sweden a 43% chance of winning, Tunisia 27% and the draw 31%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Home to Score 75%
2nd Half Over 0.5 72%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%

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Match Report

Sweden delivered a commanding 5-1 victory over Tunisia in their World Cup group stage opener, overturning an early deficit with a clinical attacking display. Tunisia took a surprise lead through Omar Rekik in the 43rd minute, but Sweden had already established control with goals from Yasin Ayari (7') and Alexander Isak (30') to lead 2-1 at the break.

The second half belonged entirely to Sweden as they pulled away decisively. Viktor Gyökeres extended the lead in the 59th minute before both teams made multiple substitutions. Mattias Svanberg added a fourth goal in the 84th minute, and Ayari completed his brace in stoppage time to seal the emphatic win.

The statistics told the story of Sweden's clinical finishing, as they converted seven of their 13 shots compared to Tunisia's two goals from six attempts. Despite relatively even possession (51%-49%) and Tunisia edging the corner count 4-2, Sweden's superior expected goals figure of 1.26 to 0.20 highlighted their dominance in creating quality chances. Our pre-match AI model rated "Sweden win" most likely at 43% — that call was correct.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Yasin Ayari

7' ⚽ 1–0

Alexander Isak assist: Viktor Gyökeres

30' ⚽ 2–0

⚽ 2–1 43'

Omar Rekik assist: Hannibal Mejbri

HT 2–1

▮ 54'

Rani Khedira Yellow Card

Viktor Gyökeres assist: Alexander Isak

59' ⚽ 3–1

Gabriel Gudmundsson ⇄ Elliot Stroud

65' ⇄

Benjamin Nygren ⇄ Lucas Bergvall

65' ⇄

⇄ 72'

Elias Saad ⇄ Sebastian Tounekti

⇄ 72'

Yan Valery ⇄ Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud

⇄ 72'

Ellyes Skhiri ⇄ Elias Achouri

⇄ 83'

Rani Khedira ⇄ Ismael Gharbi

⇄ 83'

Anis Ben Slimane ⇄ Firas Chaouat

Mattias Svanberg assist: Alexander Isak

84' ⚽ 4–1

Jesper Karlström ⇄ Mattias Svanberg

84' ⇄

Alexander Isak ⇄ Anthony Elanga

90+1' ⇄

Alexander Bernhardsson ⇄ Daniel Svensson

90+1' ⇄

Yasin Ayari assist: Lucas Bergvall

90+6' ⚽ 5–1

FT 5–1

Sweden

Match Stats

Tunisia

49% Ball Possession 51%

1.26 Expected Goals (xG) 0.20

13 Total Shots 6

7 Shots on Goal 2

3 Shots off Goal 3

3 Blocked Shots 1

9 Shots insidebox 2

4 Shots outsidebox 4

4 Corner Kicks 2

3 Offsides 6

10 Fouls 8

0 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 1

353 Total passes 362

280 Passes accurate 287

79% Passes % 79%

-2.20 goals_prevented -2.20

Sweden

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Alexander Isak F	8.9	91'	1	2	2	17 (14%)	1
18 Yasin Ayari M	8.3	96'	2	–	2	27 (17%)	3
17 Viktor Gyökeres F	8.2	96'	1	1	4	19 (16%)	–
19 Mattias Svanberg M	7.3	12'	1	–	1	2 (1%)	–
5 Gabriel Gudmundsson M	7.2	65'	–	–	–	23 (19%)	2
10 Benjamin Nygren M	7.0	65'	–	–	–	16 (15%)	–
2 Gustaf Lagerbielke D	6.9	96'	–	–	–	54 (38%)	–
4 Isak Hien D	6.9	96'	–	–	–	54 (49%)	1
24 Elliot Stroud M	6.9	31'	–	–	–	8 (6%)	1
21 Alexander Bernhardsson M	6.7	91'	–	–	–	21 (14%)	3
7 Lucas Bergvall M	6.6	31'	–	1	–	6 (5%)	1
23 Kristoffer Nordfeldt G	6.5	96'	–	–	–	27 (19%)	–
16 Jesper Karlström M	6.5	84'	–	–	–	19 (13%)	1
3 Victor Lindelöf D	6.2	96'	–	–	1	57 (51%)	1
8 Daniel Svensson D	—	5'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
11 Anthony Elanga F	—	5'	–	–	–	–	–

Tunisia

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Hannibal Mejbri M	7.3	96'	–	1	1	54 (37%)	5
4 Omar Rekik D	7.2	96'	1	–	1	47 (37%)	2
3 Montassar Talbi D	7.0	96'	–	–	1	38 (36%)	1
21 Amine Ben Hmida D	6.9	96'	–	–	–	49 (45%)	6
8 Elias Saad F	6.7	72'	–	–	1	20 (16%)	1
15 Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud M	6.7	24'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	2
19 Firas Chaouat F	6.5	12'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
25 Anis Ben Slimane F	6.3	84'	–	–	–	31 (22%)	–
7 Elias Achouri M	6.3	24'	–	–	1	2 (2%)	–
26 Sebastian Tounekti F	6.2	24'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
11 Ismael Gharbi F	6.0	13'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
13 Rani Khedira M	5.9	83'	–	–	–	15 (11%)	–
17 Ellyes Skhiri M	5.9	72'	–	–	–	36 (29%)	2
20 Yan Valery D	5.2	72'	–	–	–	17 (14%)	–
2 Ali Abdi D	5.0	96'	–	–	–	20 (13%)	2
1 Abdelmouhib Chamakh G	4.3	96'	–	–	–	19 (11%)	–

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Confidence Low (43%)

At a glance

Our lean

Sweden or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.5%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

43%

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Sweden

LDLW

Tunisia

LLLDW

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match, Sweden faces Tunisia, with the kick-off set for June 15, 2026. Sweden, known for their strong defensive organization and aerial prowess, will look to leverage their set-piece capabilities, having scored 40% of their goals in recent qualifiers from dead-ball situations. Tunisia, on the other hand, relies on a dynamic midfield and quick transitions, with 60% of their goals coming from counter-attacks in their last international fixtures. Historically, Sweden has a stronger pedigree in the World Cup, but Tunisia's recent form suggests they could pose a significant challenge. The match will likely hinge on Sweden's ability to control possession and prevent Tunisia from exploiting counter-attacking opportunities.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Tunisia goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11	8	5	2
1	11	15	7	2	1
2	8	9	5	2
3	4	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Sweden goals · most likely 1–1 (14.5%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

31%

Away Win

27%

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

31%

Away Win

27%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

61% Home (No Draw) 39% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

21% Home Win by 2+ 11% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

43% Home Scores More 31% Equal Goals 27% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

18%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.7%	7.7%	4.9%	1.7%	0.4%
1	10.7%	14.5%	6.7%	2.3%	0.6%
2	8.5%	8.8%	4.6%	1.6%	0.4%
3	3.9%	4.0%	2.1%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.3%	1.4%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

61%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Sweden	Draw	Tunisia
Sweden	25.8%	4.3%	1.5%
Draw	16.0%	19.8%	10.9%
Tunisia	2.0%	4.3%	15.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

60%

1.5

40%

84%

2.5

16%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

83%

1.5

17%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

35%

37%

19%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Sweden vs Tunisia

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Sweden — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
30 Jun	A France	L	3 - 0
25 Jun	A Japan	D	1 - 1
20 Jun	A Netherlands	L	5 - 1
15 Jun	H Tunisia	W	5 - 1

Tunisia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
25 Jun	H Netherlands	L	1 - 3
21 Jun	H Japan	L	0 - 4
15 Jun	A Sweden	L	5 - 1
31 Mar	A Canada	D	0 - 0
29 Mar	A Haiti	W	0 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Tunisia

Formation: 5-3-2 Coach: Sabri Lamouchi

1 Chamakh

2 Abdi

21 Hmida

3 Talbi

4 Rekik

20 Valery

10 Mejbri

17 Skhiri

13 Khedira

25 Slimane

8 Saad

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Abdelmouhib Chamakh	G
20	Yan Valery	D
4	Omar Rekik	D
3	Montassar Talbi	D
21	Amine Ben Hmida	D
2	Ali Abdi	D
13	Rani Khedira	M
17	Ellyes Skhiri	M
10	Hannibal Mejbri	M
8	Elias Saad	F
25	Anis Ben Slimane	F

Substitutes

16	Aymen Dahmen	G
22	Sabri Ben Hessen	G
5	Adem Arous	D
6	Dylan Bronn	D
23	Moataz Nefati	D
24	Raed Chikhaoui	D
12	Mortadha Ben Ouanes	M
11	Ismael Gharbi	F
15	Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud	M
26	Sebastian Tounekti	F
7	Elias Achouri	M
14	Khalil Ayari	F
18	Rayan Elloumi	F
9	Hazem Mastouri	F
19	Firas Chaouat	F

Sweden

Formation: 3-1-4-2 Coach: Graham Potter

23 Nordfeldt

3 Lindelöf

4 Hien

2 Lagerbielke

16 Karlström

5 Gudmundsson

18 Ayari

10 Nygren

21 Bernhardsson

9 Isak

17 Gyökeres

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Kristoffer Nordfeldt	G
2	Gustaf Lagerbielke	D
4	Isak Hien	D
3	Victor Lindelöf	D
16	Jesper Karlström	M
21	Alexander Bernhardsson	M
10	Benjamin Nygren	M
18	Yasin Ayari	M
5	Gabriel Gudmundsson	M
17	Viktor Gyökeres	F
9	Alexander Isak	F

Substitutes

24	Elliot Stroud	M
7	Lucas Bergvall	M
1	Jacob Widell Zetterström	G
12	Viktor Johansson	G
14	Hjalmar Ekdal	D
20	Eric Smith	D
15	Carl Starfelt	D
8	Daniel Svensson	D
6	Herman Johansson	M
13	Ken Sema	M
19	Mattias Svanberg	M
22	Besfort Zeneli	M
26	Taha Abdi Ali	M
11	Anthony Elanga	F
25	Gustaf Nilsson	F