Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Prediction

World Cup · Group Stage - 1

Post on X

Ecuador

Away

AI call Ecuador or draw

23%

30%

47%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Ivory Coast vs Ecuador prediction: Sportiko gives Ivory Coast a 23% chance of winning, Ecuador 47% and the draw 30%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 72%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%

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Match Report

Ivory Coast secured a dramatic 1-0 victory over Ecuador in their World Cup group stage opener, with Amad Diallo's 90th-minute strike proving decisive at the death. The match remained goalless at half-time despite an eventful first period that saw three Ivorian players booked, including Seko Fofana and Franck Kessié picking up yellow cards within ten minutes of each other.

The second half featured extensive tactical changes from both sides, with managers making multiple substitutions as they searched for the breakthrough. Ecuador enjoyed slightly more possession (55%) and created similar shot totals (6 each), but crucially failed to register a single shot on target compared to Ivory Coast's one. Our pre-match AI model had rated Ecuador as favorites with a 47% win probability, but that prediction proved incorrect.

The decisive moment came in the final minute when Diallo found the net to give the Elephants all three points. Despite Ecuador's territorial advantage and superior expected goals tally of 0.54 to 0.73, their inability to test the goalkeeper ultimately cost them in this tight Group Stage encounter.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Seko Fofana Yellow Card

28' ▮

Franck Kessié Yellow Card

38' ▮

Guéla Doué Yellow Card

40' ▮

HT 0–0

⇄ 56'

Alan Minda ⇄ Nilson Angulo

Elye Wahi ⇄ Ange-Yoan Bonny

56' ⇄

Bazoumana Touré ⇄ Amad Diallo

56' ⇄

⇄ 62'

John Yeboah ⇄ Ángelo Preciado

⇄ 62'

Alan Franco ⇄ Jackson Porozo

▮ 73'

Jackson Porozo Yellow Card

Nicolas Pépé ⇄ Christ Inao Oulaï

77' ⇄

Seko Fofana ⇄ Ibrahim Sangaré

77' ⇄

⇄ 77'

Enner Valencia ⇄ Kevin Rodriguez

Guéla Doué ⇄ Odilon Kossounou

89' ⇄

Amad Diallo assist: Wilfried Singo

90' ⚽ 1–0

FT 1–0

Ivory Coast

Match Stats

Ecuador

45% Ball Possession 55%

0.73 Expected Goals (xG) 0.54

6 Total Shots 6

1 Shots on Goal 0

2 Shots off Goal 6

3 Blocked Shots 0

3 Shots insidebox 1

3 Shots outsidebox 5

2 Corner Kicks 0

Offsides

8 Fouls 3

3 Yellow Cards 0

Red Cards

0 Goalkeeper Saves 1

233 Total passes 285

193 Passes accurate 248

83% Passes % 87%

0.36 goals_prevented 0.36

Ivory Coast

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
11 Yan Diomande M	7.2	50'	–	–	–	29 (24%)	2
17 Guéla Doué D	6.9	50'	–	–	–	26 (23%)	1
20 Emmanuel Agbadou D	6.9	50'	–	–	–	30 (28%)	2
8 Franck Kessié M	6.9	50'	–	–	–	35 (31%)	1
12 Elye Wahi F	6.7	50'	–	–	1	7 (4%)	1
6 Seko Fofana M	6.5	50'	–	–	1	25 (23%)	–
1 Yahia Fofana G	6.3	50'	–	–	–	11 (5%)	–
5 Wilfried Singo D	6.3	50'	–	–	1	24 (23%)	–
3 Ghislain Konan D	6.3	50'	–	–	–	19 (15%)	–
19 Nicolas Pépé F	6.3	50'	–	–	–	16 (13%)	–
24 Bazoumana Touré M	6.2	50'	–	–	–	11 (4%)	–

Ecuador

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Hernán Galíndez G	7.2	50'	–	–	–	17 (10%)	–
15 Pedro Vite M	7.2	50'	–	–	–	42 (38%)	2
21 Alan Franco D	7.0	50'	–	–	–	34 (33%)	1
13 Enner Valencia F	6.9	50'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	1
3 Piero Hincapié M	6.7	50'	–	–	–	15 (11%)	3
19 Gonzalo Plata F	6.7	50'	–	–	–	18 (15%)	–
4 Joel Ordóñez D	6.6	50'	–	–	–	38 (35%)	1
23 Moisés Caicedo M	6.6	50'	–	–	1	30 (28%)	1
6 Willian Pacho D	6.3	50'	–	–	–	53 (48%)	1
9 John Yeboah M	6.3	50'	–	–	3	21 (17%)	1
14 Alan Minda F	6.3	50'	–	–	2	12 (8%)	–

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Confidence Low (47%)

At a glance

Our lean

Ecuador or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.1%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

44%

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Ivory Coast

LWLW

Ecuador

LWDLW

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup clash on June 14, Ivory Coast will face Ecuador, both teams vying for a strong start in the tournament. Ivory Coast has shown resilience with a solid midfield, led by key players like Franck Kessié, while their defensive line, featuring experienced players, will need to remain vigilant against Ecuador's counter-attacks. Ecuador, known for their pace and physicality, will look to exploit set pieces and capitalize on any defensive errors. With both teams striving to establish momentum early in the competition, this match promises to be tightly contested, with tactical battles in midfield likely determining the outcome.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Ecuador goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10	11	9	5	2	1
1	7	14	9	5	2
2	4	6	4	2	1
3	1	2	1	1
4
5

↑ Ivory Coast goals · most likely 1–1 (14.1%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

47%

Draw

30%

Home Win

23%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

47%

Draw

30%

Home Win

23%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

67% Away (No Draw) 33% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

24% Away Win by 2+ 9% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

47% Away Scores More 30% Equal Goals 23% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

18%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.3%	11.2%	9.5%	4.7%	1.7%
1	6.8%	14.1%	9.2%	4.5%	1.7%
2	4.1%	6.0%	4.5%	2.2%	0.8%
3	1.3%	2.0%	1.4%	0.7%	0.3%
4	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Ivory Coast	Draw	Ecuador
Ivory Coast	13.3%	4.2%	2.1%
Draw	9.5%	19.1%	17.3%
Ecuador	1.3%	4.1%	29.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

38%

37%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

93%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Ivory Coast vs Ecuador

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Ivory Coast — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
30 Jun	H Norway	L	1 - 2
25 Jun	A Curaçao	W	0 - 2
20 Jun	A Germany	L	2 - 1
14 Jun	H Ecuador	W	1 - 0

Ecuador — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Jul	A Mexico	L	2 - 0
25 Jun	H Germany	W	2 - 1
21 Jun	H Curaçao	D	0 - 0
14 Jun	A Ivory Coast	L	1 - 0
31 May	H Saudi Arabia	W	2 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Ivory Coast

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Emerse Fae

1 Fofana

3 Konan

20 Agbadou

5 Singo

17 Doué

24 Touré

6 Fofana

8 Kessié

11 Diomande

12 Wahi

19 Pépé

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Yahia Fofana	G
17	Guéla Doué	D
5	Wilfried Singo	D
20	Emmanuel Agbadou	D
3	Ghislain Konan	D
11	Yan Diomande	M
8	Franck Kessié	M
6	Seko Fofana	M
24	Bazoumana Touré	M
19	Nicolas Pépé	F
12	Elye Wahi	F

Substitutes

16	Mohamed Koné	G
23	Alban Lafont	G
13	Christopher Operi	D
2	Ousmane Diomande	D
7	Odilon Kossounou	D
21	Evan Ndicka	D
18	Ibrahim Sangaré	M
25	Parfait Guiagon	M
15	Amad Diallo	F
10	Simon Adingra	F
26	Christ Inao Oulaï	M
4	Jean Michaël Seri	M
22	Evann Guessand	F
9	Ange-Yoan Bonny	F
14	Oumar Diakité	F

Ecuador

Formation: 3-4-3 Coach: Sebastian Beccacece

1 Galíndez

6 Pacho

4 Ordóñez

21 Franco

3 Hincapié

15 Vite

23 Caicedo

9 Yeboah

14 Minda

13 Valencia

19 Plata

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Hernán Galíndez	G
21	Alan Franco	D
4	Joel Ordóñez	D
6	Willian Pacho	D
9	John Yeboah	M
23	Moisés Caicedo	M
15	Pedro Vite	M
3	Piero Hincapié	M
19	Gonzalo Plata	F
13	Enner Valencia	F
14	Alan Minda	F

Substitutes

22	Gonzalo Valle	G
12	Moisés Ramírez	G
26	Yaimar Medina	D
25	Jackson Porozo	D
2	Félix Torres	D
20	Nilson Angulo	F
10	Kendry Páez	M
7	Pervis Estupiñán	D
5	Jordy Alcivar	M
17	Ángelo Preciado	D
18	Denil Castillo	M
16	Jordy Caicedo	F
8	Anthony Valencia	F
24	Jeremy Arevalo	F
11	Kevin Rodriguez	F