West Ham vs Leeds Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 38

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Leeds

Away

London Stadium, London

Previsione AI West Ham o pareggio

49%

31%

20%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

West Ham vs Leeds prediction: Sportiko gives West Ham a 49% chance of winning, Leeds 20% and the draw 31%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

West Ham ended their Premier League season on a high with a commanding 3–0 home victory over Leeds, though it took until the second half for the deadlock to be broken after a goalless first 45 minutes that saw yellow cards for Jaka Bijol and Brenden Aaronson.

The Hammers took control after the interval, with Valentín Castellanos opening the scoring on 67 minutes. West Ham's dominance was reflected in their shot count — 16 attempts to Leeds' 13 — despite the visitors enjoying 58% of possession. Jarrod Bowen doubled the advantage just 12 minutes later, and Callum Wilson wrapped up the victory in stoppage time to seal an emphatic scoreline. Leeds, despite their territorial control, managed only three shots on target throughout the contest, with an expected goals figure of 1.59 suggesting they never truly threatened a comeback.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a West Ham win as the most likely outcome at 49%, a call that proved correct. The result gave the hosts a confident close to the campaign, with their 2.61 xG underlining a clinical and well-structured second-half performance.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 10'

Jaka Bijol Yellow Card

▮ 25'

Brenden Aaronson Yellow Card

HT 0–0

Pablo Felipe ⇄ Callum Wilson

46' ⇄

Valentín Castellanos assist: Jarrod Bowen

67' ⚽ 1–0

⇄ 69'

Dominic Calvert-Lewin ⇄ Wilfried Gnonto

⇄ 70'

Jaka Bijol ⇄ Daniel James

⇄ 78'

Ao Tanaka ⇄ Joël Piroe

⇄ 78'

Jayden Bogle ⇄ Facundo Buonanotte

Jarrod Bowen assist: Mateus Fernandes

79' ⚽ 2–0

▮ 87'

Ethan Ampadu Yellow Card

Valentín Castellanos ⇄ Mohamadou Kanté

88' ⇄

Callum Wilson assist: C. Summerville

90' ⚽ 3–0

⇄ 90+1'

Brenden Aaronson ⇄ Sebastiaan Bornauw

FT 3–0

West Ham

Match Stats

Leeds

42% Ball Possession 58%

2.61 Expected Goals (xG) 1.59

16 Total Shots 13

9 Shots on Goal 3

4 Shots off Goal 6

3 Blocked Shots 4

13 Shots insidebox 9

3 Shots outsidebox 4

6 Corner Kicks 4

0 Offsides 1

11 Fouls 14

0 Yellow Cards 3

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 5

316 Total passes 453

239 Passes accurate 374

76% Passes % 83%

0.27 goals_prevented 0.27

West Ham

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Callum Wilson F	8.3	45'	1	–	2	4 (3%)	–
15 Konstantinos Mavropanos D	7.7	90'	–	–	–	38 (29%)	1
18 Mateus Fernandes M	7.7	90'	–	1	1	44 (37%)	5
7 C. Summerville M	7.6	90'	–	1	–	31 (25%)	4
20 Jarrod Bowen M	7.6	90'	1	1	1	13 (9%)	1
11 Valentín Castellanos F	7.6	88'	1	–	4	11 (7%)	–
12 El Hadji Malick Diouf D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	47 (37%)	1
28 Tomáš Souček M	7.2	90'	–	–	3	40 (35%)	–
1 Mads Hermansen G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	24 (6%)	–
2 Kyle Walker-Peters D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	21 (17%)	–
19 Pablo Felipe M	6.7	45'	–	–	2	12 (8%)	–
4 Axel Disasi D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	29 (24%)	–
55 Mohamadou Kanté M	—	2'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–

Leeds

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
26 Karl Darlow G	7.7	90'	–	–	–	39 (23%)	–
2 Jayden Bogle M	7.2	78'	–	–	1	23 (16%)	4
14 Lukas Nmecha F	7.2	90'	–	–	1	23 (17%)	1
24 James Justin M	7.0	90'	–	–	1	48 (37%)	3
15 Jaka Bijol D	6.9	70'	–	–	–	37 (34%)	1
4 Ethan Ampadu M	6.9	90'	–	–	–	62 (58%)	2
40 Facundo Buonanotte M	6.9	12'	–	–	–	6 (4%)	–
10 Joël Piroe F	6.7	12'	–	–	2	4 (2%)	1
7 Daniel James M	6.7	20'	–	–	–	5 (2%)	1
11 Brenden Aaronson M	6.6	89'	–	–	2	26 (23%)	1
22 Ao Tanaka M	6.6	78'	–	–	–	53 (47%)	3
9 Dominic Calvert-Lewin F	6.2	69'	–	–	1	15 (13%)	–
29 Wilfried Gnonto F	6.2	21'	–	–	–	14 (9%)	–
6 Joe Rodon D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	34 (29%)	2
5 Pascal Struijk D	6.0	90'	–	–	–	64 (60%)	2
23 Sebastiaan Bornauw D	—	1'	–	–	1	–	–

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Confidence Medium (53%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio

West Ham o pareggio

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West Ham

DDWLL

Leeds

WWLLW

Last 3 meetings West Ham · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Premier League clash on May 24, 2026, West Ham will host Leeds United at the London Stadium. West Ham has shown strong home form this season, with an average of 2.1 goals scored per match, indicating their attacking prowess. Conversely, Leeds struggles defensively, conceding an average of 1.9 goals per away game, which could be a significant factor. Both teams will likely aim for a crucial three points, but West Ham's home advantage and offensive capabilities may give them the edge in this matchup. Expect a fast-paced game with potential for multiple goals.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Leeds goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	17	10	3	1
1	20	12	4	1
2	11	7	2
3	4	3	1
4	1	1
5

↑ West Ham goals · most likely 1–0 (19.6%)

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Head to Head: West Ham vs Leeds

1 West Ham Wins

1 Draws

1 Leeds Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
24 Oct 2025	Leeds	2 - 1	West Ham
21 May 2023	West Ham	3 - 1	Leeds
04 Jan 2023	Leeds	2 - 2	West Ham

See all 7 meetings — Premium

West Ham — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A 1. FC Magdeburg	D	1 - 1
26 Jul	A Rangers	D	0 - 0
24 May	H Leeds	W	3 - 0
17 May	A Newcastle	L	3 - 1
10 May	H Arsenal	L	0 - 1

Leeds — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
02 Aug	A Liverpool	W	2 - 4
30 Jul	A Sunderland	W	0 - 1
25 Jul	A Wrexham	L	3 - 2
24 May	A West Ham	L	3 - 0
17 May	H Brighton	W	1 - 0

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0