Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 37

Post on X

Tottenham

Away

Stamford Bridge, London

Previsione AI Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Chelsea

59%

24%

17%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Chelsea vs Tottenham prediction: Sportiko gives Chelsea a 59% chance of winning, Tottenham 17% and the draw 24%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Chelsea secured a narrow but deserved derby victory over Tottenham at Stamford Bridge, moving closer to securing their Premier League position heading into the final matchday. Enzo Fernández broke the deadlock on 18 minutes with a composed finish, and Chelsea carried that advantage into the break despite a feisty first half that saw yellow cards shown to Pedro Porro and Mats van de Ven. The hosts dominated possession at 56% and generated the clearer chances, reflected in an expected goals figure of 1.72 compared to Tottenham's 0.63.

The second half brought a brief spell of drama. Andrey Santos doubled Chelsea's lead on 67 minutes, only for Richarlison to pull one back for Spurs just seven minutes later, tightening the contest considerably. A flurry of substitutions followed from both sides, and the closing stages grew increasingly fractious, with five more yellow cards distributed before the final whistle.

Chelsea ultimately held firm to claim all three points. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Chelsea win as the most likely outcome at 59%, a call that proved correct on the night.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Enzo Fernández assist: Pedro Neto

18' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 28'

Pedro Porro Yellow Card

▮ 43'

M. van de Ven Yellow Card

HT 1–0

▮ 63'

Destiny Udogie Yellow Card

Andrey Santos assist: Enzo Fernández

67' ⚽ 2–0

⇄ 69'

Randal Kolo Muani ⇄ James Maddison

⇄ 69'

Destiny Udogie ⇄ Djed Spence

⇄ 69'

João Palhinha ⇄ Pape Matar Sarr

⚽ 2–1 74'

Richarlison assist: Pape Matar Sarr

Josh Acheampong ⇄ Trevoh Chalobah

74' ⇄

J. Hato Yellow Card

79' ▮

Wesley Fofana ⇄ Mamadou Sarr

81' ⇄

Marc Cucurella Yellow Card

85' ▮

Liam Delap Yellow Card

87' ▮

Pedro Neto ⇄ Alejandro Garnacho

89' ⇄

Cole Palmer ⇄ Dário Essugo

89' ⇄

Liam Delap

89' ⇄

Dário Essugo Yellow Card

90+2' ▮

FT 2–1

Chelsea

Match Stats

Tottenham

44% Ball Possession 56%

0.63 Expected Goals (xG) 1.72

9 Total Shots 9

4 Shots on Goal 3

3 Shots off Goal 5

2 Blocked Shots 1

4 Shots insidebox 8

5 Shots outsidebox 1

3 Corner Kicks 4

1 Offsides 1

11 Fouls 18

4 Yellow Cards 3

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 2

425 Total passes 539

354 Passes accurate 474

83% Passes % 88%

-1.08 goals_prevented -1.08

Chelsea

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Enzo Fernández M	8.7	90'	1	1	2	47 (34%)	1
17 Andrey Santos M	8.0	90'	1	–	1	39 (39%)	5
25 Moisés Caicedo M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	56 (50%)	–
10 Cole Palmer M	7.0	89'	–	–	2	24 (22%)	1
7 Pedro Neto M	6.9	89'	–	1	1	17 (16%)	3
21 J. Hato D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	64 (60%)	1
19 Mamadou Sarr D	6.7	9'	–	–	–	3 (1%)	–
14 Dário Essugo M	6.7	9'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	2
23 Trevoh Chalobah D	6.6	16'	–	–	–	8 (6%)	–
29 Wesley Fofana D	6.6	81'	–	–	–	58 (54%)	–
49 Alejandro Garnacho F	6.6	9'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	2
34 Josh Acheampong D	6.6	74'	–	–	–	21 (18%)	1
62 Shumaira Mheuka F	6.5	9'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
3 Marc Cucurella D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	26 (17%)	3
9 Liam Delap F	6.3	89'	–	–	1	17 (13%)	1
1 Robert Sánchez G	6.2	90'	–	–	–	38 (19%)	–

Tottenham

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Richarlison F	7.2	90'	1	–	3	18 (10%)	2
31 Antonín Kinský G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	27 (21%)	–
10 James Maddison M	6.9	21'	–	–	1	23 (23%)	–
23 Pedro Porro D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	58 (50%)	1
6 João Palhinha M	6.7	69'	–	–	–	47 (45%)	2
30 Rodrigo Bentancur M	6.6	90'	–	–	–	73 (67%)	2
24 Djed Spence D	6.6	21'	–	–	–	13 (8%)	–
4 Kevin Danso D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	71 (66%)	1
29 Pape Matar Sarr M	6.3	21'	–	1	1	7 (6%)	–
37 M. van de Ven D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	75 (74%)	1
22 Conor Gallagher M	6.3	90'	–	–	1	50 (49%)	1
11 Mathys Tel M	6.2	90'	–	–	2	35 (25%)	–
39 Randal Kolo Muani M	6.0	69'	–	–	–	17 (10%)	–
13 Destiny Udogie D	5.9	69'	–	–	–	25 (20%)	3

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Confidence Medium (55%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio

Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Chelsea

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Chelsea

LLWDL

Tottenham

WWWLD

Last 3 meetings Chelsea · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Premier League clash on May 17, 2026, Chelsea will host Tottenham in what promises to be a fiercely contested London derby. Chelsea has shown strong home form, winning 70% of their last ten matches at Stamford Bridge, while Tottenham has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals in their away fixtures this season. Key players to watch include Chelsea's attacking midfielder, who has contributed to over 15 goals this season, and Tottenham's striker, who is among the league's top scorers. The match could hinge on Chelsea's ability to break down a Tottenham side that often relies on counter-attacking football. Overall, expect a tightly fought match with both teams aiming for crucial points as the season nears its end.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Tottenham goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	9	7	3	1
1	15	11	4	1
2	12	9	4	1
3	7	5	2	1
4	3	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Chelsea goals · most likely 1–0 (14.7%)

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Head to Head: Chelsea vs Tottenham

2 Chelsea Wins

0 Draws

1 Tottenham Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
01 Aug 2026	Chelsea	1 - 2	Tottenham
01 Nov 2025	Tottenham	0 - 1	Chelsea
03 Apr 2025	Chelsea	1 - 0	Tottenham

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Chelsea — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H Tottenham	L	1 - 2
24 May	A Sunderland	L	2 - 1
19 May	H Tottenham	W	2 - 1
09 May	A Liverpool	D	1 - 1
04 May	H Nottingham Forest	L	1 - 3

Tottenham — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A Chelsea	W	1 - 2
26 Jul	A Auckland	W	0 - 2
24 May	H Everton	W	1 - 0
19 May	A Chelsea	L	2 - 1
11 May	H Leeds	D	1 - 1

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Bournemouth	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Brentford	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Coventry	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Crystal Palace	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Everton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Fulham	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Hull City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Ipswich	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Liverpool	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Manchester City	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Manchester United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Nottingham Forest	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Sunderland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Tottenham	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0