Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 33

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Lyon

Away

Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse

Previsione AI Lyon o pareggio

35%

30%

36%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Toulouse vs Lyon prediction: Sportiko gives Toulouse a 35% chance of winning, Lyon 36% and the draw 30%. Last updated 29 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Toulouse claimed a hard-fought 2–1 victory over Lyon in Ligue 1 matchday 33, despite the visitors enjoying greater possession throughout. Dayann Methalie broke the deadlock in the 10th minute to give the hosts a half-time lead, though a feisty first half saw yellow cards shown to Methalie, Alexis Vossah, and Lyon's Aron Dønnum before the break.

The second half proved equally turbulent. Lyon equalised through Corentin Tolisso in the 71st minute, only for Toulouse to restore their advantage seven minutes later when Warren Kamanzi struck to make it 2–1. Lyon's hopes of salvaging the result were then severely dented when Dønnum received a second yellow card in the 79th minute to leave his side with ten men for the closing stages.

Despite Lyon registering six shots on target to Toulouse's three, the hosts' clinical finishing proved decisive. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Lyon win as the most likely outcome at 36%, a call that ultimately did not come to pass as Toulouse held firm to secure all three points.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Dayann Methalie assist: Yann Gboho

10' ⚽ 1–0

Aron Dønnum Yellow Card

26' ▮

Dayann Methalie Yellow Card

44' ▮

Alexis Vossah Yellow Card

45+1' ▮

HT 1–0

Mark McKenzie Yellow Card

46' ▮

▮ 56'

Endrick Yellow Card

Charlie Cresswell Yellow Card

57' ▮

Dayann Methalie ⇄ Warren Kamanzi

60' ⇄

Alexis Vossah ⇄ Pape Diop

61' ⇄

Jacen Russell-Rowe ⇄ Emersonn

61' ⇄

⇄ 67'

Khalis Merah ⇄ Pavel Šulc

▮ 70'

Roman Yaremchuk Yellow Card

⚽ 1–1 71'

Corentin Tolisso assist: Endrick

Warren Kamanzi assist: Santiago Hidalgo

78' ⚽ 2–1

Aron Dønnum Yellow Card

79' ▮

Aron Dønnum Red Card

79' ▮

Santiago Hidalgo ⇄ Djibril Sidibé

82' ⇄

⇄ 83'

Roman Yaremchuk ⇄ Ernest Nuamah

⇄ 83'

Tyler Morton ⇄ Noah Nartey

⇄ 89'

Ainsley Maitland-Niles ⇄ Malick Fofana

Yann Gboho ⇄ Seny Koumbassa

90+1' ⇄

FT 2–1

Toulouse

Match Stats

Lyon

39% Ball Possession 61%

1.13 Expected Goals (xG) 1.54

14 Total Shots 18

6 Shots on Goal 3

5 Shots off Goal 7

3 Blocked Shots 8

10 Shots insidebox 13

4 Shots outsidebox 5

7 Corner Kicks 8

0 Offsides 1

20 Fouls 9

6 Yellow Cards 2

1 Red Cards 0

2 Goalkeeper Saves 4

306 Total passes 481

249 Passes accurate 420

81% Passes % 87%

0.11 goals_prevented 0.11

Toulouse

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
24 Dayann Methalie M	8.0	60'	1	–	1	21 (18%)	3
10 Yann Gboho F	7.9	89'	–	1	3	33 (31%)	5
2 Rasmus Nicolaisen D	7.5	90'	–	–	–	19 (17%)	2
12 Warren Kamanzi D	7.2	30'	1	–	1	3 (3%)	–
4 Charlie Cresswell D	7.2	90'	–	–	2	37 (28%)	3
11 Santiago Hidalgo F	7.2	82'	–	1	2	15 (11%)	1
23 Cristian Cásseres Jr. M	7.0	90'	–	–	–	49 (41%)	2
3 Mark McKenzie D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	36 (30%)	1
20 Emersonn F	6.9	29'	–	–	–	8 (6%)	–
1 Guillaume Restes G	6.7	90'	–	–	–	28 (14%)	–
19 Djibril Sidibé D	6.7	8'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
18 Pape Diop M	6.3	29'	–	–	1	7 (5%)	–
45 Alexis Vossah M	6.3	61'	–	–	–	14 (12%)	–
15 Aron Dønnum M	6.2	79'	–	–	1	26 (24%)	–
13 Jacen Russell-Rowe F	6.2	61'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	–
35 Seny Koumbassa D	—	1'	–	–	–	–	–

Lyon

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
17 Afonso Moreira M	7.7	90'	–	–	1	46 (36%)	1
19 Moussa Niakhaté D	7.6	90'	–	–	–	68 (63%)	3
8 Corentin Tolisso M	7.6	90'	1	–	2	44 (37%)	–
1 Dominik Greif G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	29 (24%)	–
23 Tyler Morton M	6.9	83'	–	–	1	54 (48%)	1
37 Ernest Nuamah F	6.7	14'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	1
98 Ainsley Maitland-Niles D	6.6	89'	–	–	–	43 (39%)	2
99 Noah Nartey M	6.6	14'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	2
11 Malick Fofana F	6.6	8'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
9 Endrick M	6.5	90'	–	1	5	13 (10%)	2
44 Khalis Merah M	6.5	67'	–	–	1	30 (24%)	2
10 Pavel Šulc M	6.3	23'	–	–	–	6 (3%)	–
22 Clinton Mata D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	70 (67%)	–
16 Abner Vinícius D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	60 (52%)	2
77 Roman Yaremchuk F	6.2	83'	–	–	–	8 (8%)	1

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Confidence Medium (56%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio

Lyon o pareggio

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Toulouse

WDWWD

Lyon

LLWWL

Last 3 meetings Toulouse · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash on May 9, 2026, Toulouse will host Lyon at the Stadium de Toulouse. Toulouse has shown resilience at home, with a solid record of 5 wins in their last 7 matches, but they face a Lyon side that has historically dominated this fixture, winning 60% of encounters in recent seasons. Lyon's attacking prowess, led by their top scorer, could exploit Toulouse's defensive vulnerabilities, especially if they maintain their current form, averaging 2 goals per match in the last five outings. Expect a tightly contested match, with Toulouse aiming to leverage home advantage against a Lyon team seeking to solidify their European qualification aspirations.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lyon goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12	13	7	2	1
1	12	13	7	3	1
2	7	7	4	1
3	2	3	1	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Toulouse goals · most likely 1–1 (13.5%)

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Head to Head: Toulouse vs Lyon

1 Toulouse Wins

1 Draws

1 Lyon Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
05 Oct 2025	Lyon	1 - 2	Toulouse
18 Jan 2025	Lyon	0 - 0	Toulouse
29 Sep 2024	Toulouse	1 - 2	Lyon

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Toulouse — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
31 Jul	H Real Sociedad	W	2 - 1
25 Jul	H Rodez	D	1 - 1
10 May	H Lyon	W	2 - 1
03 May	A Strasbourg	W	1 - 2
25 Apr	H Monaco	D	2 - 2

Lyon — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
04 Aug	A Sparta Praha	L	2 - 1
29 Jul	A Real Betis	L	4 - 0
15 Jul	H Servette FC	W	2 - 1
11 Jul	H FC ST. Gallen	W	6 - 3
17 May	H Lens	L	0 - 4

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0