Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad Previsione

La Liga · Regular Season - 32

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Real Sociedad

Away

Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid

Previsione AI Real Sociedad o pareggio

31%

28%

41%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad: Sportiko assegna a Rayo Vallecano una probabilità di vittoria del 31%, a Real Sociedad del 41% e al pareggio del 28%. Ultimo aggiornamento 28 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Rayo Vallecano and Real Sociedad played out a dramatic 3–3 draw in La Liga's 32nd matchday, with the game swinging wildly in both directions. Real Sociedad broke the deadlock through Mikel Oyarzabal on 22 minutes, though a VAR cancellation moments earlier had denied Rayo an opener. Sergio Camello levelled for the hosts on 30 minutes to make it 1–1 at the break, setting the stage for a chaotic second half.

Orri Steinn Óskarsson put Rayo ahead on 63 minutes, only for another VAR cancellation — this time a Pedro Díaz effort on 72 minutes — to frustrate the hosts. Oyarzabal converted a penalty on 76 minutes to restore parity for Sociedad, before Florian Lejeune headed Rayo back in front on 84 minutes. It appeared the hosts would claim all three points, but Alemão struck in the 90th minute to snatch a share of the spoils for Real Sociedad, who had dominated possession at 58% and registered 24 total shots throughout.

The result was a fitting reflection of the xG figures — 2.23 for Rayo and 2.38 for Sociedad — with both sides ultimately unable to convert their opportunities into a winning margin. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Real Sociedad win as the most likely outcome at 41%, a call that nearly proved correct before the late equaliser denied them.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Nobel Mendy Yellow Card

0' ▮

Isi Palazón Red Card

0' ▮

▮ 0'

Takefusa Kubo Yellow Card

⚽ 0–1 22'

Mikel Oyarzabal assist: Ander Barrenetxea

Carlos Martín Goal cancelled

25' 🖵

Isi Palazón Yellow Card

29' ▮

Sergio Camello

30' ⚽ 1–1

▮ 45+1'

Sergio Gómez Yellow Card

HT 1–1

Pathé Ismaël Ciss Yellow Card

49' ▮

▮ 56'

Orri Steinn Óskarsson Yellow Card

⇄ 56'

Takefusa Kubo ⇄ Luka Sučić

⇄ 56'

Ander Barrenetxea ⇄ Pablo Marín

⚽ 1–2 63'

Orri Steinn Óskarsson assist: Sergio Gómez

Carlos Martín ⇄ Pedro Díaz

64' ⇄

Nobel Mendy ⇄ Alemão

64' ⇄

Sergio Camello ⇄ Jorge de Frutos

64' ⇄

⇄ 67'

Orri Steinn Óskarsson ⇄ Jon Gorrotxategi

⇄ 67'

Beñat Turrientes ⇄ Yangel Herrera

Isi Palazón ⇄ Gerard Gumbau

68' ⇄

Pedro Díaz Goal cancelled

72' 🖵

Andrei Rațiu Yellow Card

75' ▮

⚽ 1–3 76'

Mikel Oyarzabal Penalty

Unai López

81' ⇄

Florian Lejeune

84' ⚽ 2–3

Alemão assist: Pedro Díaz

90' ⚽ 3–3

⇄ 90+1'

Sergio Gómez ⇄ Aihen Muñoz

Florian Lejeune Yellow Card

90+7' ▮

▮ 90+7'

Carlos Soler Yellow Card

Alemão Yellow Card

90+10' ▮

FT 3–3

Rayo Vallecano

Match Stats

Real Sociedad

58% Ball Possession 42%

2.38 Expected Goals (xG) 2.23

24 Total Shots 13

9 Shots on Goal 8

8 Shots off Goal 3

7 Blocked Shots 2

13 Shots insidebox 10

11 Shots outsidebox 3

6 Corner Kicks 4

0 Offsides 2

14 Fouls 12

6 Yellow Cards 4

1 Red Cards 0

5 Goalkeeper Saves 6

412 Total passes 300

352 Passes accurate 227

85% Passes % 76%

-0.30 goals_prevented -0.30

Rayo Vallecano

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Sergio Camello F	7.9	64'	1	–	3	9 (5%)	1
1 Dani Cárdenas G	7.7	90'	–	–	–	29 (23%)	1
15 Gerard Gumbau M	7.5	22'	–	–	1	16 (14%)	1
4 Pedro Díaz M	7.2	26'	–	1	1	14 (14%)	–
9 Alemão F	7.0	26'	1	–	1	3 (3%)	–
24 Florian Lejeune D	6.9	90'	1	–	2	65 (57%)	1
17 Unai López M	6.7	81'	–	–	–	55 (50%)	1
32 Nobel Mendy D	6.7	64'	–	–	–	28 (25%)	–
12 Ilias Akhomach M	6.7	90'	–	–	3	24 (16%)	1
21 Fran Pérez M	6.6	9'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	–
19 Jorge de Frutos F	6.5	26'	–	–	1	5 (2%)	–
14 Carlos Martín M	6.5	64'	–	–	1	10 (10%)	1
6 Pathé Ismaël Ciss M	6.3	90'	–	–	1	57 (53%)	–
2 Andrei Rațiu D	6.0	90'	–	–	1	29 (25%)	2
3 Josep Chavarría D	6.0	90'	–	–	–	40 (31%)	4
7 Isi Palazón M	6.0	68'	–	–	2	23 (19%)	–

Real Sociedad

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Mikel Oyarzabal F	8.2	90'	2	–	3	25 (20%)	1
17 Sergio Gómez D	7.7	89'	–	1	–	36 (31%)	3
9 Orri Steinn Óskarsson F	7.3	67'	1	–	2	9 (7%)	–
15 Pablo Marín M	7.0	34'	–	–	–	6 (4%)	–
1 Álex Remiro G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	37 (20%)	–
8 Beñat Turrientes M	6.9	67'	–	–	–	27 (23%)	1
7 Ander Barrenetxea M	6.9	56'	–	1	1	20 (12%)	2
24 Luka Sučić M	6.5	34'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	2
3 Aihen Muñoz D	6.5	14'	–	–	–	–	1
4 Jon Gorrotxategi M	6.5	23'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
16 Duje Ćaleta-Car D	6.3	90'	–	–	1	21 (16%)	4
14 Takefusa Kubo M	6.3	56'	–	–	–	16 (13%)	–
18 Carlos Soler M	6.3	90'	–	–	4	27 (22%)	1
12 Yangel Herrera M	6.3	23'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
2 Jon Aramburu D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	26 (18%)	2
31 Jon Martin D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	37 (31%)	2

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Confidence Medium (56%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio

Real Sociedad o pareggio

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Rayo Vallecano

DWLWL

Real Sociedad

WLLWD

Last 3 meetings Rayo Vallecano · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming La Liga clash on April 25, Rayo Vallecano hosts Real Sociedad, both teams currently vying for crucial points in the league standings. Rayo Vallecano has demonstrated resilience at home, with a solid record, but they face a formidable opponent in Real Sociedad, who have been consistent in their attacking play, averaging 1.8 goals per match this season. Real Sociedad's strong midfield and defensive organization will be tested against Rayo's quick counter-attacks. The match could hinge on Rayo's ability to exploit set-pieces, while Sociedad's adaptability under pressure will be key. Expect a tightly contested game with both teams aiming for European qualification.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Real Sociedad goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10	12	8	3	1
1	10	13	8	4	1
2	5	7	4	2	1
3	2	2	2	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Rayo Vallecano goals · most likely 1–1 (13.1%)

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Players in form

Rayo Vallecano

Sergio Camello 7 gls

Real Sociedad

L. Sučić 3 gls

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Head to Head: Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad

2 Rayo Vallecano Wins

1 Draws

0 Real Sociedad Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
05 Oct 2025	Real Sociedad	0 - 1	Rayo Vallecano
16 Mar 2025	Rayo Vallecano	2 - 2	Real Sociedad
18 Aug 2024	Real Sociedad	1 - 2	Rayo Vallecano

Vedi tutti i 10 incontri — Premium

Rayo Vallecano — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Osasuna	D	1 - 1
15 Sep	H Espanyol	W	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Real Madrid	L	4 - 1
05 Sep	H Racing Santander	W	3 - 2
31 Aug	A Barcelona	L	5 - 2

Real Sociedad — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Valencia	W	2 - 3
17 Sep	H Bournemouth	L	1 - 2
13 Sep	H Atletico Madrid	L	0 - 3
07 Sep	A Elche	W	2 - 3
03 Sep	H Celta Vigo	D	0 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3