Swindon Town vs Port Vale Previsione

League Two · Regular Season - 4

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Port Vale

Away

Previsione AI Swindon Town o pareggio

39%

29%

33%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Swindon Town vs Port Vale: Sportiko assegna a Swindon Town una probabilità di vittoria del 39%, a Port Vale del 33% e al pareggio del 29%. Ultimo aggiornamento 1 Sep 2026, 20:42.

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Casa a Segno 76%
Oltre 1.5 Gol 71%
2nd Half Over 0.5 70%

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 2'

Oliver Lynch assist: Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel

Aaron Drinan

13' ⚽ 1–1

HT 1–1

⇄ 46'

Ben Waine ⇄ Tyreece Simpson

⇄ 46'

Onel Hernández ⇄ Lewis Montsma

⇄ 46'

M. Craig ⇄ Ben Garrity

Tom Nichols ⇄ J. Snowdon

56' ⇄

Ryan Tafazolli ⇄ Ben Middlemas

56' ⇄

▮ 58'

Cameron Humphreys Yellow Card

Ben Middlemas

71' ⚽ 2–1

Ollie Palmer ⇄ Louis Millard

74' ⇄

⇄ 76'

Rhys Walters ⇄ George Hall

⇄ 81'

Liam Gordon ⇄ Jaheim Headley

Yellow Card

87' ▮

Aaron Drinan

90+3' ⇄

Louis Millard

90+4' ⚽ 3–1

FT 3–1

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Confidence Low (39%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio

Swindon Town o pareggio

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.3%

Both teams to score

49%

Over 2.5 goals

43%

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Swindon Town

LLLLW

Port Vale

DLWLL

Match summary

Swindon Town faces Port Vale in a League Two matchup on September 1, 2026. Swindon has shown a strong offensive presence, averaging 1.5 goals per match this season, while Port Vale's defense has conceded an average of 1.3 goals. Conversely, Port Vale's attack is slightly more clinical, converting 12% of their chances compared to Swindon’s 10%. Both teams will be looking to capitalize on set pieces, as they rank among the top in the league for goals from corners. This contest is likely to be closely contested, with tactical adjustments from both managers playing a crucial role in the outcome.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

39%

45%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

33%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Port Vale goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	11	7	4	1
1	11	14	6	2
2	9	9	4	1
3	4	4	2	1
4	2	2	1
5

↑ Swindon Town goals · most likely 1–1 (14.3%)

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Players in form

Swindon Town

A. Drinan 5 gls

Port Vale

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

39%

Away Win

33%

Draw

29%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

39%

Away Win

33%

Draw

29%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

66% Home (No Draw) 34% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

23% Home Win by 2+ 9% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

46% Home Scores More 30% Equal Goals 24% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

19%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.8%	7.2%	4.3%	1.4%	0.3%
1	11.4%	14.3%	6.1%	2.0%	0.5%
2	9.3%	9.0%	4.4%	1.4%	0.3%
3	4.4%	4.3%	2.1%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.6%	1.5%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Swindon Town	Draw	Port Vale
Swindon Town	30.4%	4.8%	1.6%
Draw	15.2%	19.5%	10.4%
Port Vale	1.6%	3.6%	12.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

58%

1.5

42%

83%

2.5

17%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

24%

34%

25%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

38%

37%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

93%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

89%

1.5

11%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Swindon Town vs Port Vale

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Swindon Town — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
22 Sep	H Newport County	L	0 - 2
19 Sep	A Salford City	L	1 - 0
15 Sep	H Crystal Palace U21	L	1 - 2
12 Sep	A York	L	4 - 0
05 Sep	H Colchester	W	3 - 1

Port Vale — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
22 Sep	A Chesterfield	D	1 - 1
19 Sep	A Walsall	L	2 - 0
12 Sep	H Exeter City	W	1 - 0
05 Sep	A Salford City	L	1 - 0
01 Sep	A Swindon Town	L	3 - 1

League Two Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barnet	7	4	3	0	17	10	+7	15
2	Walsall	7	3	4	0	10	4	+6	13
3	Grimsby	7	3	4	0	11	6	+5	13
4	Gillingham	7	3	3	1	11	6	+5	12
5	Cheltenham	7	3	3	1	14	11	+3	12
6	Bristol Rovers	7	4	0	3	12	11	+1	12
7	York	7	3	2	2	13	10	+3	11
8	Chesterfield	7	3	2	2	10	8	+2	11
9	Crewe	7	2	5	0	7	5	+2	11
10	Tranmere	7	2	4	1	9	7	+2	10
11	Fleetwood Town	7	2	4	1	8	7	+1	10
12	Salford City	7	3	1	3	8	9	-1	10
13	Swindon Town	7	3	1	3	8	11	-3	10
14	Rotherham	7	2	3	2	10	10	0	9
15	Colchester	7	2	3	2	8	10	-2	9
16	Oldham	7	2	1	4	8	9	-1	7
17	Rochdale	7	2	1	4	7	10	-3	7
18	Shrewsbury	7	2	1	4	5	11	-6	7
19	Newport County	7	1	3	3	10	11	-1	6
20	Exeter City	7	1	3	3	4	5	-1	6
21	Accrington ST	7	1	3	3	10	13	-3	6
22	Northampton	7	1	3	3	3	6	-3	6
23	Port Vale	7	1	2	4	3	9	-6	5
24	Crawley Town	7	1	1	5	6	13	-7	4

Port Vale

Coach: Jon Brady

Swindon Town

Coach: Ian Holloway