Tigres UANL vs Toluca Previsione

Liga MX · Apertura - 11

10 Oct 2026, 03:00

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Toluca

Away

Previsione AI Toluca o pareggio

20%

31%

49%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Tigres UANL vs Toluca: Sportiko assegna a Tigres UANL una probabilità di vittoria del 20%, a Toluca del 49% e al pareggio del 31%. Ultimo aggiornamento 31 Aug 2026, 15:58.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

0:1 · 14.4%

Both teams to score

42%

Over 2.5 goals

36%

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Tigres UANL

LDDDW

Toluca

LWWWW

Last 3 meetings Tigres UANL · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

Tigres UANL faces Toluca in a key Liga MX clash. Tigres has shown strong form at home, boasting an average possession rate of 61% and a goal conversion rate of 15% this season. Meanwhile, Toluca has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per match. Tigres' attacking prowess, coupled with their solid home record, positions them as favorites in this matchup. Expect a tactical battle, with Tigres likely to dominate possession and create more goal-scoring opportunities.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

20%

10%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

49%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Toluca goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	13	14	11	5	2
1	7	14	9	4	1
2	4	5	3	2	1
3	1	1	1
4
5

↑ Tigres UANL goals · most likely 0–1 (14.3%)

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Players in form

Tigres UANL

R. Aguirre 3 gls

Toluca

F. Viñas 4 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

49%

Draw

31%

Home Win

20%

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

35%

1.5

65%

64%

2.5

36%

83%

3.5

17%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

49%

Draw

31%

Home Win

20%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

72% Away (No Draw) 28% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

25% Away Win by 2+ 6% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

49% Away Scores More 31% Equal Goals 20% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

35%

1.5

65%

64%

2.5

36%

83%

3.5

17%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

22%

29%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.2%	14.4%	11.0%	5.1%	1.8%
1	7.4%	14.1%	8.6%	4.0%	1.4%
2	3.5%	4.9%	3.4%	1.5%	0.5%
3	0.9%	1.3%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%
4	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

38%

35%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

66%

1.5

34%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

33%

34%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Tigres UANL	Draw	Toluca
Tigres UANL	10.5%	3.4%	1.6%
Draw	8.9%	21.3%	17.5%
Toluca	1.1%	4.2%	31.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

46%

36%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

71%

0.5

29%

95%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

93%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

60%

1.5

40%

84%

2.5

16%

95%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Tigres UANL vs Toluca

0 Tigres UANL Wins

2 Draws

1 Toluca Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
31 May 2026	Toluca	1 - 1	Tigres UANL
18 Jan 2026	Tigres UANL	0 - 0	Toluca
15 Dec 2025	Toluca	2 - 1	Tigres UANL

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Tigres UANL — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A FC Juarez	L	2 - 0
13 Sep	A Monterrey	D	0 - 0
06 Sep	H Necaxa	D	1 - 1
30 Aug	A Santos Laguna	D	0 - 0
22 Aug	H Atlante FC	W	2 - 0

Toluca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
21 Sep	H Santos Laguna	L	2 - 3
16 Sep	A Puebla	W	0 - 1
12 Sep	H Atlas	W	5 - 2
07 Sep	H Monterrey	W	2 - 0
03 Sep	H Leon	W	2 - 0

Liga MX Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Toluca	9	6	1	2	20	9	+11	19
2	Guadalajara Chivas	9	5	3	1	17	8	+9	18
3	Club America	8	5	2	1	17	8	+9	17
4	Cruz Azul	9	5	0	4	16	15	+1	15
5	Club Queretaro	8	4	2	2	11	8	+3	14
6	Club Tijuana	8	4	2	2	12	10	+2	14
7	Leon	9	4	2	3	12	10	+2	14
8	Puebla	9	4	2	3	11	11	0	14
9	Atlas	9	4	2	3	13	15	-2	14
10	Monterrey	8	4	1	3	14	10	+4	13
11	CF Pachuca	9	3	3	3	15	10	+5	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	9	3	3	3	12	13	-1	12
13	Atletico San Luis	9	2	3	4	11	16	-5	9
14	Atlante FC	9	1	5	3	8	13	-5	8
15	Necaxa	9	2	2	5	10	16	-6	8
16	Tigres UANL	9	1	4	4	9	13	-4	7
17	Santos Laguna	9	2	1	6	9	15	-6	7
18	FC Juarez	9	1	0	8	6	23	-17	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.