Toulouse vs Strasbourg Previsione
Pronostico Toulouse vs Strasbourg: Sportiko assegna a Toulouse una probabilità di vittoria del 42%, a Strasbourg del 31% e al pareggio del 27%. Ultimo aggiornamento 6 Nov 2026, 21:39.
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Match Report
Toulouse claimed a comfortable 3–1 home victory over Strasbourg in Matchday 10 of Ligue 1, with the decisive action concentrated in a frantic final phase of the first half. A feisty opening 45 minutes saw four yellow cards distributed across both sides before Santiago Hidalgo broke the deadlock in first-half stoppage time, with VAR confirming the goal moments later to send Toulouse into the break with the advantage.
The second half saw Toulouse extend their lead through Mark McKenzie on 56 minutes, before Giovanni Reyna added a third just after the hour mark to put the game beyond doubt. Strasbourg pulled one back through Thomas Jørgensen on 76 minutes, but it proved nothing more than a consolation. The visitors actually edged the underlying numbers, recording seven corner kicks to Toulouse's one and posting an expected goals figure of 1.08 against the hosts' 0.57.
Despite the statistics favouring Strasbourg on paper, Toulouse converted their chances more clinically to secure all three points. The result aligned with our pre-match AI model, which had rated a Toulouse win as the most likely outcome at 42%.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Toulouse
Match Stats
Toulouse
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Santiago Hidalgo F | 8.2 | 67' | 1 | – | 3 | 7 (6%) | 1 |
| 8 Thomas Jørgensen M | 8.0 | 92' | 1 | – | 1 | 35 (30%) | 3 |
| 3 Mark McKenzie D | 7.8 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 76 (72%) | 1 |
| 23 Cristian Cásseres Jr. M | 7.7 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 69 (62%) | 1 |
| 2 Rasmus Nicolaisen D | 7.2 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 54 (47%) | – |
| 11 Sion Oppong M | 7.1 | 72' | – | 1 | 1 | 10 (7%) | 2 |
| 20 Casper Tengstedt F | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 4 | 18 (14%) | 2 |
| 16 Guillaume Restes G | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 39 (35%) | – |
| 37 Ilyas Azizi F | 6.6 | 18' | – | – | – | 8 (8%) | – |
| 13 Jacen Russell-Rowe F | 6.6 | 23' | – | – | – | 7 (6%) | 1 |
| 14 Niko Sigur M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 46 (42%) | 3 |
| 12 Christ Tapé D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 24 (21%) | – |
| 94 Ismail Diallo D | 6.2 | 92' | – | – | – | 41 (31%) | 1 |
Strasbourg
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Giovanni Reyna M | 7.2 | 70' | 1 | – | 2 | 40 (32%) | 2 |
| 7 Samuel Amo-Ameyaw F | 6.6 | 28' | – | – | 1 | 6 (5%) | – |
| 80 Gessime Yassine F | 6.5 | 62' | – | – | 2 | 23 (19%) | – |
| 6 Ismael Doukouré D | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 75 (72%) | 1 |
| 29 Samir El Mourabet M | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 67 (60%) | – |
| 20 Martial Godo F | 6.3 | 62' | – | – | – | 13 (12%) | 2 |
| 24 Lucas Høgsberg D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 49 (45%) | 3 |
| 40 Conrad Harder F | 6.2 | 62' | – | – | – | 6 (6%) | 2 |
| 30 Jacobo Ortega F | 6.2 | 28' | – | – | – | 5 (4%) | 1 |
| 14 Dário Essugo M | 6.1 | 77' | – | – | 1 | 23 (19%) | 1 |
| 11 Sebastian Nanasi M | 6.0 | 28' | – | – | 2 | 10 (7%) | – |
| 21 Pape Diop M | 5.9 | 13' | – | – | – | 7 (7%) | – |
| 36 Oso D | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 39 (32%) | – |
| 31 Karim Coulibaly D | 5.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 69 (63%) | 2 |
| 23 Diogo Sousa M | 5.6 | 20' | – | – | – | 4 (4%) | – |
| 1 Filip Jørgensen G | 5.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 48 (43%) | – |
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At a glance
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Upgrade NowMatch summary
Live insights
Min 82: Toulouse leads 3-1. Win probability: 99.4%. Comeback chance: 0.6%.
Toulouse now leads 3-1 with 98.4% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 37.3%.
Min 75: Toulouse leads 2-1. Win probability: 84.3%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 15.7%.
Goal! Score now 2-1. Toulouse win: 80.4%. BTTS: 100%.
Toulouse now leads 2-0 with 94.2% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 67.1%.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Most likely scores
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
C. Tengstedt
5 gls
T. Jørgensen
3 gls
Gessime Yassine
4 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Toulouse vs Strasbourg
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May 2026 | Strasbourg | 1 - 2 | Toulouse |
| 06 Dec 2025 | Toulouse | 1 - 0 | Strasbourg |
| 16 Mar 2025 | Strasbourg | 2 - 1 | Toulouse |
Toulouse — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov | H Strasbourg | W | 3 - 1 |
| 01 Nov | A Marseille | L | 2 - 0 |
| 25 Oct | H Estac Troyes | D | 0 - 0 |
| 16 Oct | A Le Mans | W | 0 - 3 |
| 10 Oct | A Monaco | D | 2 - 2 |
Strasbourg — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov | A Toulouse | L | 3 - 1 |
| 01 Nov | H Auxerre | W | 5 - 1 |
| 25 Oct | A Rennes | L | 3 - 0 |
| 17 Oct | H Paris Saint Germain | L | 1 - 3 |
| 11 Oct | A Nice | L | 2 - 1 |
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Paris Saint Germain
|
10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 |
Paris FC
|
10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 3 |
Lille
|
9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 18 |
| 4 |
Lyon
|
9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 |
Rennes
|
9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 16 |
| 6 |
Marseille
|
9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 15 |
| 7 |
Monaco
|
9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 |
Nice
|
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 |
Lens
|
9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 13 |
| 10 |
Toulouse
|
10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 |
Stade Brestois 29
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 12 |
| 12 |
Lorient
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 |
Strasbourg
|
10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 |
Auxerre
|
10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 |
Angers
|
9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 |
Estac Troyes
|
10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |
Le Mans
|
9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 18 |
Le Havre
|
9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 2 |
Strasbourg
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: Hugo Oliveira
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | F. Jörgensen | G |
| 24 | L. Høgsberg | D |
| 6 | I. Doukouré | D |
| 31 | Abdoul Karim Coulibaly | D |
| 36 | Oso | D |
| 14 | Dário Essugo | M |
| 29 | S. El Mourabet | M |
| 10 | G. Reyna | M |
| 80 | Gessime Yassine | F |
| 40 | C. Harder | F |
| 20 | M. Godo | F |
Substitutes
| 12 | M. Piekutowski | G |
| 7 | S. Amo-Ameyaw | F |
| 43 | Y. Becker | D |
| 21 | P. Diop | M |
| 16 | G. Antwi | D |
| 23 | Diogo Sousa | M |
| 11 | S. Nanasi | M |
| 28 | Tyrese Noubissie | M |
| 30 | J. Ortega | F |
Toulouse
Formation: 4-4-2
Coach: Arturo Ruiz
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | G. Restes | G |
| 94 | I. Diallo | D |
| 3 | M. McKenzie | D |
| 2 | R. Nicolaisen | D |
| 12 | C. Tapé | D |
| 8 | T. Jørgensen | M |
| 23 | C. Cásseres | M |
| 14 | N. Sigur | M |
| 11 | S. Oppong | M |
| 9 | S. Hidalgo | F |
| 20 | C. Tengstedt | F |
Substitutes
| 44 | G. Bakhouche | D |
| 37 | Y. Azizi | F |
| 49 | Aymen Amaaouch | F |
| 5 | S. Koumbassa | D |
| 60 | M. Niflore | G |
| 13 | J. Russell-Rowe | F |
| 31 | N. Schmidt | M |
| 7 | Julián Vignolo | F |
| 6 | A. Vossah | M |