Le Mans vs Lens Previsione

Ligue 1 Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 4
FT
Post on X
Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
Previsione AI Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Lens
22%
25%
53%
Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Le Mans vs Lens: Sportiko assegna a Le Mans una probabilità di vittoria del 22%, a Lens del 53% e al pareggio del 25%. Ultimo aggiornamento 13 Sep 2026, 17:09.

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  • 1st Half Over 0.5 75%
  • Casa a Segno 70%
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Match Report

Le Mans and Lens played out a lively 2–2 draw in Ligue 1, though it was Lens who had been tipped as favourites by our pre-match AI model, which rated a Lens win most likely at 53%. The match was feisty from the outset, with four yellow cards distributed before the half-hour mark. Adil Bourabaa broke the deadlock for Le Mans in the 32nd minute, before Lucas Calodat doubled the home side's advantage six minutes later. Lens responded immediately, with Abdallah Sima pulling one back in first-half stoppage time to make it 2–1 at the break, a goal that arrived alongside a flurry of half-time substitutions from both sides.

The second half saw Lens complete their comeback when Franjo Ivanović levelled just six minutes after the restart. A VAR review then cancelled a Lens penalty in the 78th minute, denying the visitors what could have been a winning goal. Lens dominated in terms of attacking output, registering 15 total shots and nine corners to Le Mans's 12 and three respectively, though neither side could find a decisive third goal.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Noa Boissé Yellow Card
15'
20'
Michaël Cuisance Yellow Card
Jean Vercruysse Yellow Card
28'
Adil Bourabaa
32' 1–0
38'
Andrija Bulatovic Yellow Card
Lucas Calodat assist: Adil Bourabaa
44' 2–0
45'
Michaël Cuisance ⇄ Amadou Haidara
Noa Boissé ⇄ Djibril Sidibé
45'
45'
Odsonne Édouard ⇄ Franjo Ivanović
45'
Michał Skóraś ⇄ Mezian Mesloub
2–1 45+2'
Abdallah Sima
HT 2–1
2–2 51'
Franjo Ivanović assist: Ruben Aguilar
53'
Florian Thauvin Yellow Card
55'
J. Gradit ⇄ Jean-Clair Todibo
Lucas Bretelle ⇄ Alexandre Lauray
65'
Jean Vercruysse ⇄ Daouda Traore
65'
Dame Gueye ⇄ Habib Diallo
65'
76'
Abdallah Sima ⇄ Thorgan Hazard
S. Yohou ⇄ Raúl Torrente
77'
🖵 78'
Thorgan Hazard Penalty cancelled
FT 2–2
Le Mans

Match Stats

Lens
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Goal 6
5 Shots off Goal 5
3 Blocked Shots 4
11 Shots insidebox 11
1 Shots outsidebox 4
3 Corner Kicks 9
1 Offsides 3
17 Fouls 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 0
4 Goalkeeper Saves 2
476 Total passes 418
405 Passes accurate 352
10 Free Kicks 15
Le Mans
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
11 Adil Bourabaa M 8.0 90' 1 1 2 40 (32%) 1
22 Lucas Calodat M 7.8 90' 1 2 33 (28%) 2
17 S. Yohou D 7.0 77' 45 (41%) 3
1 Ewan Hatfout G 6.9 90' 42 (35%)
13 Habib Diallo F 6.8 25' 8 (6%) 2
26 Rayan Bamba M 6.7 90' 1 42 (39%) 3
19 Djibril Sidibé D 6.6 44' 1 29 (27%) 1
5 Harold Voyer D 6.6 90' 70 (60%) 2
14 Louis Mafouta F 6.5 90' 2 17 (14%)
10 Jean Vercruysse M 6.4 65' 2 22 (18%)
16 Raúl Torrente D 6.3 13' 7 (6%) 2
25 Dame Gueye F 6.3 65' 1 12 (8%) 1
29 Lucas Bretelle M 6.3 65' 42 (36%) 2
15 Noa Boissé D 6.1 46' 34 (29%) 1
8 Alexandre Lauray M 6.1 25' 22 (16%) 1
23 Daouda Traore M 6.0 25' 1 11 (10%) 1
Lens
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
29 Franjo Ivanović F 8.1 44' 1 1 14 (7%) 1
2 Ruben Aguilar M 7.7 90' 1 54 (50%) 2
19 Abdallah Sima M 7.3 76' 1 2 17 (13%) 1
11 Odsonne Édouard F 6.9 46' 5 (5%)
5 Andrija Bulatovic M 6.8 90' 48 (42%) 2
10 Florian Thauvin M 6.7 90' 7 38 (26%)
32 Kyllian Antonio D 6.6 90' 43 (40%) 2
40 Robin Risser G 6.5 90' 31 (26%)
20 Jean-Clair Todibo D 6.5 35' 1 22 (19%)
24 J. Gradit D 6.4 55' 1 27 (27%)
21 Amadou Haidara M 6.2 44' 21 (17%) 1
38 Mezian Mesloub M 6.2 44' 2 18 (14%)
22 Michał Skóraś M 6.1 46' 13 (9%)
9 Thorgan Hazard M 6.1 14' 1 7 (7%) 1
14 Matthieu Udol D 6.0 90' 46 (36%) 1
27 Michaël Cuisance M 5.7 46' 14 (14%)
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Confidence Medium (53%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio
Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Lens
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Le Mans
WDDLD
Lens
LDWLL

Match summary

Le Mans faces Lens in a Ligue 1 clash, with Lens currently sitting higher in the league standings. Lens boasts a stronger attacking record, averaging 1.8 goals per match, compared to Le Mans' 1.2. Defensively, Lens has conceded fewer goals, reflecting a solid backline. Le Mans will need to capitalize on set pieces and create scoring opportunities to challenge Lens effectively. This match could be pivotal for Le Mans to gain momentum against a formidable opponent.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
22%
45%
Draw
25%
45%
Away
53%
10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Le Mans
A. Bourabaa 3 gls
L. Mafouta 3 gls
Lens
F. Thauvin 3 gls
F. Ivanović 2 gls

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Head to Head: Le Mans vs Lens

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Le Mans — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
19 Sep H Lorient W 2 - 1
13 Sep H Lens D 2 - 2
05 Sep A Nice D 1 - 1
30 Aug A Rennes L 3 - 2
22 Aug H Stade Brestois 29 D 2 - 2

Lens — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
18 Sep A Monaco L 2 - 1
13 Sep A Le Mans D 2 - 2
10 Sep A Slavia Praha W 2 - 3
05 Sep H Lorient L 0 - 1
29 Aug A Strasbourg L 2 - 1

Ligue 1 Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Monaco
5 4 1 0 +5 13
2
Lyon
5 3 2 0 +8 11
3
Paris FC
5 3 2 0 +5 11
4
Lille
5 3 1 1 +4 10
5
Rennes
5 3 1 1 -1 10
6
Paris Saint Germain
5 2 2 1 +1 8
7
Angers
5 2 1 2 +1 7
8
Strasbourg
5 2 1 2 0 7
9
Le Mans
5 1 3 1 0 6
10
Auxerre
5 2 0 3 -5 6
11
Stade Brestois 29
5 1 2 2 -1 5
12
Lorient
5 1 2 2 -1 5
13
Toulouse
5 1 2 2 -2 5
14
Nice
5 1 2 2 -3 5
15
Lens
5 1 1 3 0 4
16
Estac Troyes
5 1 1 3 -7 4
17
Marseille
5 1 0 4 -1 3
18
Le Havre
5 0 2 3 -3 2

Le Mans

Formation: 3-1-4-2 Coach: P. Videira
1 Hatfout
5 Voyer
17 Yohou
15 Boissé
29 Bretelle
22 Calodat
10 Vercruysse
11 Bourabaa
26 Bamba
25 Guèye
14 Mafouta

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 E. Hatfout G
15 N. Boissé D
17 S. Yohou D
5 H. Voyer D
29 L. Bretelle M
26 R. Bamba M
11 A. Bourabaa M
10 J. Vercruysse M
22 L. Calodat M
14 L. Mafouta F
25 D. Guèye F

Substitutes

7 B. Brahimi F
13 H. Diallo F
98 N. Kocik G
76 Y. Larouci D
8 A. Lauray M
9 A. Rabillard F
19 D. Sidibé D
16 Raúl Torrente D
23 D. Traoré M

Lens

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: D. Toppmöller
40 Risser
14 Udol
32 Antonio
24 Gradit
22 Skóraś
5 Bulatović
27 Cuisance
2 Aguilar
10 Thauvin
19 Sima
11 Édouard

Starting XI

# Player Pos
40 R. Risser G
24 J. Gradit D
32 K. Antonio D
14 M. Udol D
2 R. Aguilar M
27 M. Cuisance M
5 A. Bulatović M
22 M. Skóraś M
19 A. Sima M
10 F. Thauvin M
11 O. Édouard F

Substitutes

4 N. Čelik D
16 M. Gorgelin G
21 A. Haidara M
9 T. Hazard M
29 F. Ivanović F
28 J. Kadile F
38 Mezian Mesloub M
7 F. Sotoca F
20 J. Todibo D

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