Lille vs Estac Troyes Previsione

Ligue 1 Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 4
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Previsione AI Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Lille
63%
22%
15%
Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Lille vs Estac Troyes: Sportiko assegna a Lille una probabilità di vittoria del 63%, a Estac Troyes del 15% e al pareggio del 22%. Ultimo aggiornamento 13 Sep 2026, 14:55.

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  • Under 3.5 Gol 75%
  • 2nd Half Over 0.5 74%
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Match Report

Lille secured a comfortable 2–0 home victory over Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, despite the visitors dominating possession throughout. The match began with early drama as Hakon Arnar Haraldsson had a goal ruled out by VAR in the third minute, before Tiago Santos broke the deadlock on 18 minutes to give Lille a deserved lead at the break.

Troyes, who finished with 64% possession and 13 total shots, struggled to convert their territorial advantage into clear chances, managing just one shot on target. Lille's defensive solidity proved the difference, and Ethan Mbappé wrapped up the points in stoppage time to seal a clean sheet for the hosts. A yellow card for Olivier Giroud in the 82nd minute was a minor blemish on an otherwise controlled Lille display.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Lille win as the most likely outcome at 63%, a call that proved correct. The result moves Lille forward in the early Ligue 1 standings, while Troyes will be frustrated by their inability to turn possession into goals.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Hakon Arnar Haraldsson Goal cancelled
3' 🖵
Tiago Santos assist: Dilane Bakwa
18' 1–0
45'
L. Maronnier ⇄ Noah Donkor
HT 1–0
Hakon Arnar Haraldsson ⇄ Maurits Kjaergaard
61'
Dilane Bakwa ⇄ Ethan Mbappé
71'
Ayase Ueda ⇄ Olivier Giroud
71'
Başar Önal ⇄ Gaëtan Perrin
71'
75'
Kandet Diawara ⇄ Timothé Nkada
75'
Mouhamed Diop ⇄ Iron Gomis
80'
Hugo Picard ⇄ Renaud Ripart
80'
Antoine Mille ⇄ Yacouba Kone
Olivier Giroud Yellow Card
82'
Ngal'ayel Mukau ⇄ Benjamin André
86'
Ethan Mbappé assist: Maurits Kjaergaard
90+3' 2–0
FT 2–0
Lille

Match Stats

Estac Troyes
64% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Goal 1
5 Shots off Goal 6
2 Blocked Shots 1
11 Shots insidebox 5
2 Shots outsidebox 3
2 Corner Kicks 5
3 Offsides 2
11 Fouls 20
1 Yellow Cards 0
0 Red Cards 0
1 Goalkeeper Saves 4
626 Total passes 333
557 Passes accurate 262
17 Free Kicks 11
Lille
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
22 Tiago Santos D 8.2 90' 1 2 57 (51%) 1
8 Ethan Mbappé M 8.1 19' 1 3 10 (8%)
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro D 7.6 90' 115 (108%)
3 Nathan Ngoy D 7.5 90' 91 (87%) 1
14 Maurits Kjaergaard M 7.5 29' 1 1 20 (17%)
7 Dilane Bakwa M 7.4 71' 1 2 37 (30%) 1
6 Nabil Bentaleb M 7.2 90' 74 (66%)
15 Romain Perraud D 7.2 90' 1 69 (60%)
10 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson M 6.9 61' 21 (18%) 2
21 Benjamin André M 6.8 4' 4 (4%)
17 Ngal'ayel Mukau M 6.6 86' 38 (34%) 1
19 Başar Önal M 6.6 71' 26 (23%) 2
28 Gaëtan Perrin F 6.5 19' 1 12 (10%)
1 Berke Özer G 6.4 90' 30 (22%)
18 Ayase Ueda F 6.3 71' 3 16 (14%)
9 Olivier Giroud F 6.3 19' 6 (5%)
Estac Troyes
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
8 Mouhamed Diop M 6.8 75' 1 38 (33%) 5
22 Hugo Picard M 6.7 80' 1 22 (19%) 3
33 Patrick Beach G 6.6 90' 25 (11%)
6 Adrien Monfray D 6.6 90' 3 42 (31%) 2
4 Michel Diaz D 6.5 90' 37 (34%)
39 Yacouba Kone F 6.5 10' 1
9 Jérémy Le Douaron F 6.4 90' 2 19 (12%) 2
23 Timothé Nkada F 6.3 15' 3 (3%)
2 L. Maronnier D 6.3 46' 10 (6%) 2
7 Kandet Diawara M 6.2 75' 18 (15%) 3
17 Antoine Mille M 6.2 80' 31 (26%) 3
29 Karim Dermane M 6.1 90' 38 (34%) 2
11 Iron Gomis M 6.0 15' 2 (2%)
20 Renaud Ripart F 5.9 10' 4 (3%)
31 Noah Donkor D 5.9 44' 15 (12%)
3 Anis Ouzenadji D 5.8 90' 26 (18%) 4
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Confidence Medium (63%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio
Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Lille
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Lille
LWLWD
Estac Troyes
LLLWD
Last 3 meetings Lille · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash, Lille will host Estac Troyes. Lille has shown solid form in recent matches, boasting a strong home record with an average of 1.8 goals scored per game. Conversely, Troyes has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.1 goals per game in their last five outings. This matchup will be crucial for both teams, as Lille seeks to solidify their position in the top half of the table while Troyes aims to climb out of the relegation zone. Expect Lille to leverage their offensive capabilities against a vulnerable Troyes defense.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
63%
45%
Draw
22%
45%
Away
15%
10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Lille
Tiago Santos 2 gls
Estac Troyes

No scorer data.

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Head to Head: Lille vs Estac Troyes

1 Lille Wins
1 Draws
1 Estac Troyes Wins
Date Home Score Away
03 Jun 2023 Estac Troyes 1 - 1 Lille
15 Jan 2023 Lille 5 - 1 Estac Troyes
01 May 2022 Estac Troyes 3 - 0 Lille
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Lille — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
20 Sep A Nice L 2 - 1
13 Sep H Estac Troyes W 2 - 0
08 Sep H Real Betis L 2 - 3
03 Sep A Toulouse W 0 - 1
28 Aug H Paris Saint Germain D 2 - 2

Estac Troyes — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
19 Sep A Angers L 2 - 0
13 Sep A Lille L 2 - 0
06 Sep H Strasbourg L 2 - 6
29 Aug A Lorient W 1 - 2
22 Aug H Paris FC D 0 - 0

Ligue 1 Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Monaco
5 4 1 0 +5 13
2
Lyon
5 3 2 0 +8 11
3
Paris FC
5 3 2 0 +5 11
4
Lille
5 3 1 1 +4 10
5
Rennes
5 3 1 1 -1 10
6
Paris Saint Germain
5 2 2 1 +1 8
7
Angers
5 2 1 2 +1 7
8
Strasbourg
5 2 1 2 0 7
9
Le Mans
5 1 3 1 0 6
10
Auxerre
5 2 0 3 -5 6
11
Stade Brestois 29
5 1 2 2 -1 5
12
Lorient
5 1 2 2 -1 5
13
Toulouse
5 1 2 2 -2 5
14
Nice
5 1 2 2 -3 5
15
Lens
5 1 1 3 0 4
16
Estac Troyes
5 1 1 3 -7 4
17
Marseille
5 1 0 4 -1 3
18
Le Havre
5 0 2 3 -3 2

Estac Troyes

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: S. Dumont
33 Beach
3 Ouzenadji
4 Diaz
6 Monfray
2 Maronnier
29 Karim
8 Diop
22 Picard
17 Mille
7 Diawara
9 Douaron

Starting XI

# Player Pos
33 P. Beach G
2 L. Maronnier D
6 A. Monfray D
4 M. Diaz D
3 A. Ouzenadji D
8 M. Diop M
29 D. Karim M
7 K. Diawara M
17 A. Mille M
22 H. Picard M
9 J. Le Douaron F

Substitutes

36 I. Soukouna M
41 Enisio Carneiro D
31 Noah Donkor D
11 I. Gomis M
40 H. Konaté G
39 Y. Kone F
23 T. Nkada F
20 R. Ripart F
34 Lassana Simakha D

Lille

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Horacio Melgarejo
1 Özer
15 Perraud
4 Ribeiro
3 Ngoy
22 Santos
6 Bentaleb
17 Mukau
19 Önal
10 Haraldsson
7 Bakwa
18 Ueda

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 B. Özer G
22 Tiago Santos D
3 N. Ngoy D
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro D
15 R. Perraud D
17 N. Mukau M
6 N. Bentaleb M
7 D. Bakwa M
10 H. Haraldsson M
19 B. Önal M
18 A. Ueda F

Substitutes

21 B. André M
12 O. Gill G
9 O. Giroud F
14 M. Kjærgaard M
8 E. Mbappé M
23 T. Nianzou D
28 G. Perrin F
11 O. Sahraoui F
24 C. Verdonk D

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