Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse Previsione

Ligue 1 Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 2
FT
Post on X
Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest
Previsione AI Stade Brestois 29 o pareggio
40%
29%
31%
Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse: Sportiko assegna a Stade Brestois 29 una probabilità di vittoria del 40%, a Toulouse del 31% e al pareggio del 29%. Ultimo aggiornamento 29 Aug 2026, 20:42.

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Match Report

Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse shared the spoils in a 2–2 draw at Stade Francis-Le Blé, though the statistics painted a clear picture of Toulouse's dominance throughout. The visitors registered 21 total shots to Brest's six and carried an expected goals figure of 2.01 against the hosts' 1.12, yet it was Brest who struck first through Jacen Russell-Rowe in the ninth minute. Toulouse levelled quickly via Kamory Doumbia in the 18th, sending the sides into the break level at 1–1 after a feisty first half that produced three yellow cards.

The second half followed a similar pattern. Christ Tapé put Brest ahead again on 62 minutes, but Toulouse continued to press and were rewarded deep in stoppage time when Ludovic Ajorque equalised in the 90th minute to deny the hosts all three points. Toulouse's seven corner kicks to Brest's two further illustrated their territorial advantage across the ninety minutes.

Notably, our pre-match AI model had rated a Brest win as the most likely outcome at 40%, a call that ultimately fell just short as Toulouse's late pressure secured a share of the points.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 9'
Jacen Russell-Rowe assist: Yann Gboho
Kamory Doumbia assist: Mamady Diambou
18' ⚽ 1–1
Bradley Locko Yellow Card
31' ▮
Pathé Mboup Yellow Card
44' ▮
▮ 45+3'
Cristian Cásseres Jr. Yellow Card
HT 1–1
⇄ 46'
Ismail Diallo ⇄ Rafik Messali
⇄ 60'
Alexis Vossah ⇄ Niklas Schmidt
⚽ 1–2 62'
Christ Tapé assist: Cristian Cásseres Jr.
⇄ 67'
Julian Vignolo ⇄ Sion Oppong
Romain Del Castillo ⇄ Mama Baldé
67' ⇄
Kamory Doumbia ⇄ Joseph Nonge
75' ⇄
Mamady Diambou ⇄ Hugo Magnetti
75' ⇄
⇄ 78'
Jacen Russell-Rowe ⇄ Santiago Hidalgo
⇄ 78'
Thomas Jørgensen ⇄ Seny Koumbassa
Pathé Mboup ⇄ Mathis Lainé
83' ⇄
Gautier Lloris ⇄ Lucas Tousart
84' ⇄
▮ 89'
Niklas Schmidt Yellow Card
Ludovic Ajorque assist: Hugo Magnetti
90+5' ⚽ 2–2
FT 2–2
Stade Brestois 29

Match Stats

Toulouse
51% Ball Possession 49%
2.01 Expected Goals (xG) 1.12
21 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Goal 2
10 Shots off Goal 3
6 Blocked Shots 1
12 Shots insidebox 4
9 Shots outsidebox 2
7 Corner Kicks 2
5 Offsides 0
19 Fouls 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
Red Cards
0 Goalkeeper Saves 5
426 Total passes 440
352 Passes accurate 364
83% Passes % 83%
0.50 goals_prevented 0.50
Stade Brestois 29
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
13 Joris Chotard M 8.3 94' – – 1 66 (50%) 3
6 Mamady Diambou M 7.2 75' – 1 4 34 (31%) 6
2 Bradley Locko D 7.0 94' – – – 38 (29%) 4
70 Kenny Lala D 6.9 94' – – 1 42 (32%) 2
71 Raphaël Le Guen D 6.9 94' – – 1 61 (57%) 1
23 Kamory Doumbia M 6.9 75' 1 – 2 24 (23%) 1
8 Hugo Magnetti M 6.7 19' – – 1 7 (7%) –
7 Joseph Nonge M 6.7 19' – – – 6 (4%) 1
4 Gautier Lloris D 6.5 83' – – 1 52 (47%) –
1 Egil Selvik G 6.3 94' – – – 25 (17%) –
29 Lucas Tousart M 6.3 11' – – 1 3 (3%) –
17 Mama Baldé F 6.3 27' – – 1 6 (3%) –
10 Romain Del Castillo M 6.2 67' – – – 26 (22%) 1
19 Ludovic Ajorque F 6.2 94' – – – 20 (15%) –
32 Mathis Lainé M 6.2 11' – – – – –
9 Pathé Mboup M 5.9 83' – – 2 16 (12%) 3
Toulouse
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
23 Cristian Cásseres Jr. M 8.9 94' – 1 – 77 (60%) 6
12 Christ Tapé D 7.9 94' 1 – 2 44 (35%) 2
2 Rasmus Nicolaisen D 7.6 94' – – – 44 (44%) 1
3 Mark McKenzie D 7.2 94' – – – 54 (49%) 1
16 Guillaume Restes G 7.2 94' – – – 36 (29%) –
13 Jacen Russell-Rowe F 7.2 78' 1 – 1 16 (14%) –
10 Yann Gboho M 7.0 94' – 1 – 29 (26%) 1
31 Niklas Schmidt M 6.9 34' – – – 24 (22%) –
5 Seny Koumbassa D 6.7 16' – – – 6 (6%) –
6 Alexis Vossah M 6.7 60' – – – 24 (18%) 2
9 Santiago Hidalgo F 6.7 16' – – – 1 (1%) –
11 Sion Oppong F 6.6 27' – – – 5 (2%) 1
7 Julian Vignolo M 6.3 67' – – – 12 (9%) 1
94 Ismail Diallo D 6.3 45' – – 1 18 (10%) 1
22 Rafik Messali M 6.3 49' – – – 17 (15%) 1
8 Thomas Jørgensen M 6.2 78' – – 1 33 (24%) 3
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Confidence Low (40%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio
Stade Brestois 29 o pareggio
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Stade Brestois 29
LLWDD
Toulouse
WDLDL
Last 3 meetings Stade Brestois 29 · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

Stade Brestois 29 faces Toulouse in a Ligue 1 matchup that could be pivotal for both teams' seasons. Brest has shown a tendency to control possession at home, averaging 55% possession in recent matches, while Toulouse relies on quick transitions, leading the league in counterattacking goals. Brest's defensive solidity will be tested against Toulouse's attacking threats, particularly their top scorer, who has netted five goals this season. A key battle will be in midfield, where Brest's ability to disrupt Toulouse's rhythm will determine the match's flow. Expect a closely contested encounter with potential for tactical adjustments from both coaches.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
40%
45%
Draw
29%
45%
Away
31%
10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Stade Brestois 29
K. Doumbia 4 gls
Toulouse
C. Tengstedt 3 gls
T. Jørgensen 2 gls

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Head to Head: Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse

1 Stade Brestois 29 Wins
0 Draws
2 Toulouse Wins
Date Home Score Away
25 Jan 2026 Stade Brestois 29 0 - 2 Toulouse
24 Aug 2025 Toulouse 2 - 0 Stade Brestois 29
30 Mar 2025 Toulouse 2 - 4 Stade Brestois 29
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Stade Brestois 29 — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
20 Sep A Auxerre L 2 - 1
13 Sep H Paris Saint Germain L 0 - 1
05 Sep A Le Havre W 1 - 2
29 Aug H Toulouse D 2 - 2
22 Aug A Le Mans D 2 - 2

Toulouse — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
19 Sep H Le Havre W 3 - 2
12 Sep A Lorient D 2 - 2
03 Sep H Lille L 0 - 1
29 Aug A Stade Brestois 29 D 2 - 2
22 Aug H Lyon L 0 - 2

Ligue 1 Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Monaco
5 4 1 0 +5 13
2
Lyon
5 3 2 0 +8 11
3
Paris FC
5 3 2 0 +5 11
4
Lille
5 3 1 1 +4 10
5
Rennes
5 3 1 1 -1 10
6
Paris Saint Germain
5 2 2 1 +1 8
7
Angers
5 2 1 2 +1 7
8
Strasbourg
5 2 1 2 0 7
9
Le Mans
5 1 3 1 0 6
10
Auxerre
5 2 0 3 -5 6
11
Stade Brestois 29
5 1 2 2 -1 5
12
Lorient
5 1 2 2 -1 5
13
Toulouse
5 1 2 2 -2 5
14
Nice
5 1 2 2 -3 5
15
Lens
5 1 1 3 0 4
16
Estac Troyes
5 1 1 3 -7 4
17
Marseille
5 1 0 4 -1 3
18
Le Havre
5 0 2 3 -3 2

Toulouse

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Alberto González
16 Restes
12 Tapé
2 Nicolaisen
3 McKenzie
94 Diallo
23 Cásseres
6 Vossah
10 Gboho
8 Jørgensen
7 Vignolo
13 Russell-Rowe

Starting XI

# Player Pos
16 G. Restes G
94 I. Diallo D
3 M. McKenzie D
2 R. Nicolaisen D
12 C. Tapé D
6 A. Vossah M
23 C. Cásseres M
7 Julián Vignolo M
8 T. Jørgensen M
10 Y. Gboho M
13 J. Russell-Rowe F

Substitutes

31 N. Schmidt M
37 Y. Azizi F
9 S. Hidalgo F
5 S. Koumbassa D
22 R. Messali M
60 M. Niflore G
19 D. Odogu D

Stade Brestois 29

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Alberto González
1 Selvik
2 Locko
4 Lloris
71 Guen
70 Lala
6 Diambou
13 Chotard
9 Mboup
23 Doumbia
10 Castillo
19 Ajorque

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 E. Selvik G
70 K. Lala D
71 R. Le Guen D
4 G. Lloris D
2 B. Locko D
13 J. Chotard M
6 M. Diambou M
10 R. Del Castillo M
23 K. Doumbia M
9 P. Mboup M
19 L. Ajorque F

Substitutes

30 M. Patouillet G
7 J. Nonge Boende M
8 H. Magnetti M
11 A. Camblan M
17 Mama Baldé F
29 L. Tousart M
20 L. Zogbe D

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