Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 1

22 Aug 2026, 18:45

Post on X

Lyon

Away

Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse

Previsione AI Vittoria Lyon

19%

74%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Toulouse vs Lyon prediction: Sportiko gives Toulouse a 8% chance of winning, Lyon 74% and the draw 19%. Last updated 28 Jul 2026, 16:47.

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75% 73% 72%

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At a glance

Most likely score

0:2 · 14.4%

Both teams to score

44%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

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Toulouse

WDWWD

Lyon

LLWWL

Last 3 meetings Toulouse · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash, Toulouse will face Lyon, both teams looking to assert their early-season form. Toulouse's defensive metrics indicate a solid backline, conceding only 1.2 goals per match on average last season, while their attack has shown promise with a 1.5 goals per game average. Lyon, on the other hand, has struggled with consistency, finishing the previous season with a -2 goal difference. Their offense, averaging 1.3 goals per match, will need to be more clinical to capitalize on any defensive lapses from Toulouse. This matchup will be crucial for both teams in establishing momentum for the season ahead.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lyon goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	11	14	11	7	3
1	2	9	9	7	4	2
2	1	3	3	2	1	1
3		1	1
4
5

↑ Toulouse goals · most likely 0–2 (14.4%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

74%

Draw

19%

Home Win

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS No 44% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

20%

1.5

80%

44%

2.5

56%

67%

3.5

33%

85%

4.5

15%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

74%

Draw

19%

Home Win

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

91% Away (No Draw) 9% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

51% Away Win by 2+ 2% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

74% Away Scores More 19% Equal Goals 8% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

20%

1.5

80%

44%

2.5

56%

67%

3.5

33%

85%

4.5

15%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS No 44% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

14%

24%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.3%	11.3%	14.4%	11.2%	6.6%
1	2.3%	8.9%	9.2%	7.2%	4.2%
2	1.1%	2.5%	2.9%	2.3%	1.3%
3	0.2%	0.5%	0.6%	0.5%	0.3%
4	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

27%

33%

25%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

50%

1.5

50%

77%

2.5

23%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

21%

30%

27%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Toulouse	Draw	Lyon
Toulouse	4.1%	2.6%	2.4%
Draw	3.3%	11.6%	22.0%
Lyon	0.5%	2.5%	51.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

97%

2.5

100%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

53%

34%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

75%

0.5

25%

97%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

70%

0.5

30%

95%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

33%

1.5

67%

60%

2.5

40%

82%

3.5

18%

Away Exact Goals

10%

23%

27%

21%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

63%

1.5

37%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Toulouse vs Lyon

2 Toulouse Wins

1 Draws

0 Lyon Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
10 May 2026	Toulouse	2 - 1	Lyon
05 Oct 2025	Lyon	1 - 2	Toulouse
18 Jan 2025	Lyon	0 - 0	Toulouse

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Toulouse — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
31 Jul	H Real Sociedad	W	2 - 1
25 Jul	H Rodez	D	1 - 1
10 May	H Lyon	W	2 - 1
03 May	A Strasbourg	W	1 - 2
25 Apr	H Monaco	D	2 - 2

Lyon — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
04 Aug	A Sparta Praha	L	2 - 1
29 Jul	A Real Betis	L	4 - 0
15 Jul	H Servette FC	W	2 - 1
11 Jul	H FC ST. Gallen	W	6 - 3
17 May	H Lens	L	0 - 4

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.