Lecce vs Genoa Previsione
Pronostico Lecce vs Genoa: Sportiko assegna a Lecce una probabilità di vittoria del 30%, a Genoa del 38% e al pareggio del 32%. Ultimo aggiornamento 1 Nov 2026, 18:58.
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Match Report
Genoa claimed all three points at the Via del Mare, winning 1–2 in a match that was effectively decided before the interval. Lecce drew first blood through Milutin Osmajić in the 11th minute, but Genoa responded swiftly with Junior Messias equalising in the 28th before Youssef Maleh turned the game on its head with a 40th-minute strike. A VAR cancellation of Nikola Štulić's goal just before the whistle ensured Genoa took their lead into the break intact.
The second half saw Lecce push for an equaliser but struggle to convert their pressure into genuine chances. Despite holding 47% of the ball and generating an expected goals figure of 1.28 against Genoa's 0.96, the hosts managed only three shots on target across the ninety minutes. Genoa's defensive discipline held firm through a busy spell of substitutions and yellow cards, with Kaba, Traorè, and Siebert all cautioned.
Our pre-match AI model had rated a Genoa victory as the most likely outcome at 38%, a call that proved correct as the visitors efficiently protected their first-half advantage.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Lecce
Match Stats
Lecce
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Youssef Maleh M | 7.3 | 75' | 1 | – | 3 | 35 (28%) | – |
| 99 Joël Monteiro F | 6.8 | 59' | – | – | 1 | 18 (13%) | – |
| 25 Antonino Gallo D | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 45 (32%) | 2 |
| 44 Tiago Gabriel D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 43 (36%) | 1 |
| 9 Nikola Štulić F | 6.5 | 75' | – | – | 4 | 14 (11%) | 1 |
| 79 Oumar Ngom M | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 53 (45%) | 1 |
| 28 Olaf Gorter M | 6.4 | 56' | – | – | 1 | 14 (12%) | 3 |
| 5 Jamil Siebert D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 53 (46%) | 4 |
| 7 Amar Fatah F | 6.3 | 31' | – | – | 2 | 9 (6%) | – |
| 22 Paco Esteban F | 6.1 | 15' | – | – | 1 | 1 | – |
| 2 Ali Dembélé D | 6.1 | 15' | – | – | – | 10 (7%) | – |
| 16 Omri Gandelman M | 6.0 | 15' | – | – | – | 6 (3%) | 1 |
| 30 Wladimiro Falcone G | 5.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 18 (13%) | – |
| 77 Mohamed Kaba M | 5.8 | 34' | – | – | 1 | 26 (22%) | – |
| 11 Konan N'Dri F | 5.6 | 75' | – | – | 1 | 19 (13%) | – |
| 17 Danilo Veiga D | 5.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 25 (16%) | 3 |
Genoa
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Junior Messias M | 9.0 | 86' | 1 | 1 | 1 | 21 (15%) | 3 |
| 1 Justin Bijlow G | 7.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 39 (24%) | – |
| 92 Stephan El Shaarawy M | 7.5 | 60' | – | 1 | 3 | 35 (31%) | 1 |
| 18 Milutin Osmajić F | 7.5 | 86' | 1 | – | 2 | 19 (7%) | – |
| 9 Vitinha F | 6.8 | 30' | – | – | 2 | 9 (7%) | 2 |
| 5 Leo Østigård D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 35 (28%) | 2 |
| 22 Johan Vásquez D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 31 (19%) | 9 |
| 25 Hamed Junior Traorè M | 6.5 | 80' | – | – | 2 | 56 (48%) | 2 |
| 29 Lorenzo Colombo F | 6.4 | 4' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | – |
| 97 Djibril Sow M | 6.3 | 10' | – | – | – | 6 (5%) | – |
| 27 Alessandro Marcandalli D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 37 (31%) | 2 |
| 3 Kingsley Ehizibue D | 6.3 | 30' | – | – | – | 8 (6%) | – |
| 11 Franz-Ethan Meichtry M | 6.2 | 4' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 77 Mikael Ellertsson M | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 23 (16%) | 1 |
| 32 Morten Frendrup M | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 29 (21%) | 2 |
| 71 Samuel Wiafe M | 5.9 | 60' | – | – | 1 | 10 (8%) | 2 |
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At a glance
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Live insights
Min 75: Genoa leads 1-2. Win probability: 87%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 13%.
Equalizer scored! Match now level at 2-2. Draw probability: 46.1%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.
Half-time: 1-2. Genoa leads. Win probability: 75.6%. Over 0.5 more goals: 66.4%.
Goal! Score now 1-2. Genoa win: 74.8%. BTTS: 100%.
Genoa now leads 0-2 with 91.6% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 76.7%.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
No scorer data.
M. Osmajić
4 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Lecce vs Genoa
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 May 2026 | Lecce | 1 - 0 | Genoa |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Genoa | 0 - 0 | Lecce |
| 14 Mar 2025 | Genoa | 2 - 1 | Lecce |
Lecce — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | A Torino | D | 1 - 1 |
| 01 Nov | H Genoa | L | 1 - 2 |
| 29 Oct | A Frosinone | L | 5 - 1 |
| 25 Oct | H Juventus | L | 0 - 2 |
| 18 Oct | A Udinese | W | 0 - 3 |
Genoa — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov | A Lecce | W | 1 - 2 |
| 28 Oct | H Juventus | W | 2 - 0 |
| 25 Oct | H Venezia | W | 1 - 0 |
| 17 Oct | A AS Roma | L | 2 - 0 |
| 10 Oct | H Fiorentina | W | 2 - 1 |
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Lazio
|
10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 8 | +16 | 28 |
| 2 |
AS Roma
|
11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 27 |
| 3 |
Inter
|
10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 13 | +13 | 25 |
| 4 |
Como
|
10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 23 |
| 5 |
AC Milan
|
10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 21 |
| 6 |
Frosinone
|
11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 20 |
| 7 |
Juventus
|
10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 |
Bologna
|
11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |
Cagliari
|
11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 |
Napoli
|
10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 |
Torino
|
11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 |
Genoa
|
10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 |
Atalanta
|
10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |
Lecce
|
11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 |
Fiorentina
|
10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 |
Parma
|
11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 |
Sassuolo
|
11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 8 |
| 18 |
Monza
|
10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 7 |
| 19 |
Venezia
|
11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 6 |
| 20 |
Udinese
|
11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 5 |
Genoa
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: D. De Rossi
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | J. Bijlow | G |
| 27 | A. Marcandalli | D |
| 5 | L. Østigård | D |
| 22 | J. Vásquez | D |
| 77 | M. Ellertsson | M |
| 32 | M. Frendrup | M |
| 25 | H. Traorè | M |
| 92 | S. El Shaarawy | M |
| 71 | S. Wiafe | M |
| 10 | Junior Messias | M |
| 18 | M. Osmajić | F |
Substitutes
| 4 | Alexsandro Amorim | M |
| 8 | T. Baldanzi | M |
| 9 | Vítinha | F |
| 29 | L. Colombo | F |
| 16 | C. Drameh | D |
| 3 | K. Ehizibue | D |
| 14 | Lukas Klišys | D |
| 34 | S. Otoa | D |
| 11 | E. Meichtry | M |
| 2 | M. Mitaj | D |
| 31 | D. Puczka | D |
| 20 | S. Sabelli | D |
| 99 | F. Stolz | G |
| 97 | D. Sow | M |
| 39 | D. Sommariva | G |
Lecce
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: E. Di Francesco
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | W. Falcone | G |
| 17 | Danilo Veiga | D |
| 5 | J. Siebert | D |
| 44 | Tiago Gabriel | D |
| 25 | A. Gallo | D |
| 28 | Olaf Gorter | M |
| 79 | O. Ngom | M |
| 14 | Y. Maleh | M |
| 11 | K. N’Dri | F |
| 9 | N. Štulić | F |
| 99 | Joël Monteiro | F |
Substitutes
| 2 | A. Dembélé | D |
| 7 | A. Ahmed Fatah | F |
| 3 | C. Ndaba | D |
| 1 | M. Bleve | G |
| 32 | A. Borbei | G |
| 22 | Paco Esteban | F |
| 8 | S. Fofana | M |
| 16 | O. Gandelman | M |
| 18 | G. Jean | D |
| 77 | M. Kaba | M |
| 31 | E. Scott | D |