Lazio vs Parma Previsione

Serie A Serie A · Regular Season - 8
FT
Post on X
Stadio Olimpico, Roma
Previsione AI Lazio vince o pareggia
69%
21%
10%
Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Lazio vs Parma: Sportiko assegna a Lazio una probabilità di vittoria del 69%, a Parma del 10% e al pareggio del 21%. Ultimo aggiornamento 24 Oct 2026, 20:42.

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  • 2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
  • Under 3.5 Gol 75%
  • Home/Draw & Over 1.5 71%
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Match Report

Lazio edged past Parma 2–1 in a Serie A clash that remained goalless at the break before coming to life in the second half. The hosts dominated throughout, controlling 68% of possession and generating 21 total shots to Parma's 11, though the scoreline remained tight despite that statistical superiority.

The decisive period arrived quickly after the interval. Kenneth Taylor broke the deadlock on 50 minutes, and Lazio's lead was doubled eight minutes later when Diego Carlos turned the ball into his own net. Parma had seen two players — Oliver Provstgaard and Vincent Sierro — pick up yellow cards and be substituted at half-time, which disrupted their defensive shape heading into the second period.

Carlos and Taylor were both withdrawn before the hour mark in a busy spell of changes from both benches. Parma pulled one back through Simone Lontani deep into stoppage time, but it proved too late to salvage a point. The pre-match AI model had rated a Lazio victory as the most likely outcome at 69%, a call that proved correct as the hosts secured all three points.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Oliver Provstgaard Yellow Card
30' ▮
▮ 38'
Vincent Sierro Yellow Card
Oliver Provstgaard ⇄ Diogo Leite
45' ⇄
⇄ 45'
Vincent Sierro ⇄ Adrián Bernabé
HT 0–0
Kenneth Taylor
50' ⚽ 1–0
Diego Carlos Own Goal
58' ⚽ 2–0
⇄ 63'
Christian Ordoñez ⇄ Simone Lontani
Kenneth Taylor ⇄ Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
71' ⇄
⇄ 72'
Diego Carlos ⇄ Matija Frigan
Gustav Isaksen ⇄ Manuel Lazzari
77' ⇄
Mattia Zaccagni ⇄ Alfonso Pedraza
77' ⇄
⇄ 78'
David Romero ⇄ Giovanni Fabbian
⚽ 2–1 90+5'
Simone Lontani assist: Giovanni Fabbian
FT 2–1
Lazio

Match Stats

Parma
68% Ball Possession 32%
1.76 Expected Goals (xG) 0.91
21 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Goal 5
13 Shots off Goal 5
4 Blocked Shots 1
15 Shots insidebox 9
6 Shots outsidebox 2
8 Corner Kicks 3
2 Offsides 3
5 Fouls 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 0
4 Goalkeeper Saves 3
637 Total passes 293
569 Passes accurate 213
11 Free Kicks 5
Lazio
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
24 Kenneth Taylor M 8.2 71' 1 – 2 68 (58%) 1
35 Christos Mandas G 7.7 90' – – – 37 (30%) –
37 Josip Šutalo D 7.3 90' – – – 66 (62%) 2
17 Nuno Tavares D 7.3 90' – – 1 88 (76%) 1
2 Diogo Leite D 7.2 44' – – 1 37 (35%) 3
21 Reda Belahyane M 7.1 90' – – 1 89 (83%) –
7 Fisayo Dele-Bashiru M 6.8 19' – – 1 15 (13%) –
16 Davide Frattesi M 6.7 90' – – 3 35 (31%) 4
10 Mattia Zaccagni F 6.7 77' – – 3 53 (50%) –
15 Romano Floriani Mussolini D 6.6 90' – – 2 33 (28%) 1
25 Oliver Provstgaard D 6.6 46' – – – 37 (35%) –
29 Manuel Lazzari M 6.5 13' – – – 9 (9%) –
11 Gustav Isaksen F 6.3 77' – – 5 37 (34%) 1
14 Tijjani Noslin F 6.3 90' – – 2 26 (20%) –
23 Alfonso Pedraza D 6.2 13' – – – 7 (5%) –
Parma
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
76 Simone Lontani F 7.5 27' 1 – 3 7 (4%) –
14 Emanuele Valeri D 7.1 90' – – – 17 (14%) –
20 Matija Frigan F 6.7 18' – – – 7 (5%) –
37 Mariano Troilo D 6.6 90' – – 1 38 (32%) 2
15 Enrico Delprato D 6.5 90' – – 2 22 (16%) 2
19 El Bilal Touré F 6.4 90' – – 3 23 (14%) 3
9 David Romero F 6.3 78' – – 2 9 (4%) –
16 Mandela Keita M 6.3 90' – – – 23 (20%) 4
72 Dominik Drobnic  D 6.3 90' – – – 26 (20%) 1
32 Christian Ordoñez M 6.2 63' – – – 13 (11%) –
10 Adrián Bernabé M 6.1 44' – – – 24 (18%) –
80 Giovanni Fabbian M 6.0 12' – 1 – 8 (4%) –
4 Vincent Sierro M 5.9 46' – – – 16 (12%) 2
40 Edoardo Corvi G 5.8 90' – – – 35 (19%) –
34 Diego Carlos D 5.4 72' – – – 25 (20%) 2
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Confidence Medium (69%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio
Lazio vince o pareggia
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Lazio
WWWWW
Parma
LWDLL
Last 3 meetings Lazio · 1W 2D 0L

Match summary

Lazio will face Parma in a Serie A match on October 25, 2026. Lazio has demonstrated strong form at home, leveraging their attacking prowess, with an average of 2 goals per game this season. Conversely, Parma has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game away from home. The matchup will likely hinge on Lazio's ability to exploit Parma's weaknesses in defense while maintaining a solid midfield presence to control tempo. Expect Lazio to look for an early advantage to capitalize on their offensive strengths.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
69%
45%
Draw
21%
45%
Away
10%
10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Lazio
T. Noslin 4 gls
G. Isaksen 4 gls
Parma

No scorer data.

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Head to Head: Lazio vs Parma

1 Lazio Wins
2 Draws
0 Parma Wins
Date Home Score Away
04 Apr 2026 Lazio 1 - 1 Parma
13 Dec 2025 Parma 0 - 1 Lazio
28 Apr 2025 Lazio 2 - 2 Parma
Vedi tutti i 10 incontri — Premium

Lazio — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
01 Nov H Cagliari W 2 - 1
27 Oct A Sassuolo W 2 - 6
24 Oct H Parma W 2 - 1
18 Oct A Juventus W 0 - 3
11 Oct H Monza W 3 - 1

Parma — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
07 Nov H Bologna L 1 - 2
02 Nov A Atalanta W 0 - 3
28 Oct H Udinese D 0 - 0
24 Oct A Lazio L 2 - 1
19 Oct H Torino L 0 - 3

Serie A Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Lazio
10 9 1 0 +16 28
2
AS Roma
11 8 3 0 +21 27
3
Inter
10 8 1 1 +13 25
4
Como
10 7 2 1 +10 23
5
AC Milan
10 6 3 1 +9 21
6
Frosinone
11 6 2 3 +9 20
7
Juventus
10 5 2 3 +3 17
8
Bologna
11 5 2 4 +2 17
9
Cagliari
11 5 1 5 -5 16
10
Napoli
10 4 2 4 +4 14
11
Torino
11 4 2 5 -2 14
12
Genoa
10 4 1 5 -4 13
13
Atalanta
10 3 2 5 -4 11
14
Lecce
11 3 1 7 -10 10
15
Fiorentina
10 2 2 6 -8 8
16
Parma
11 2 2 7 -8 8
17
Sassuolo
11 2 2 7 -13 8
18
Monza
10 2 1 7 -7 7
19
Venezia
11 2 0 9 -13 6
20
Udinese
11 1 2 8 -13 5

Lazio

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: G. Gattuso
35 Mandas
17 Tavares
25 Provstgaard
37 Šutalo
15 Mussolini
24 Taylor
21 Belahyane
16 Frattesi
10 Zaccagni
14 Noslin
11 Isaksen

Starting XI

# Player Pos
35 C. Mandas G
15 R. Floriani Mussolini D
37 J. Šutalo D
25 O. Provstgaard D
17 Nuno Tavares D
16 D. Frattesi M
21 R. Belahyane M
24 K. Taylor M
11 G. Isaksen F
14 T. Noslin F
10 M. Zaccagni F

Substitutes

63 F. Serra F
47 D. Renzetti G
28 A. Przyborek M
3 L. Pellegrini D
23 Pedraza D
40 E. Motta G
2 Diogo Leite D
29 M. Lazzari M
71 V. Farcomeni M
5 D. Doekhi D
7 F. Dele-Bashiru M
32 D. Cataldi M
22 M. Cancellieri F
76 Filipe Bordon D

Parma

Formation: 5-3-2 Coach: A. Gilardino
40 Corvi
14 Valeri
72 Drobnic
37 Troilo
34 Carlos
15 Prato
32 Ordoñez
4 Sierro
16 Keita
9 Romero
19 Touré

Starting XI

# Player Pos
40 E. Corvi G
15 E. Del Prato D
34 Diego Carlos D
37 M. Troilo D
72 D. Drobnic D
14 E. Valeri D
16 M. Keita M
4 V. Sierro M
32 C. Ordoñez M
19 E. Touré F
9 D. Romero F

Substitutes

29 F. Carboni D
3 A. N'Diaye D
8 B. Cremaschi M
30 G. Daffara G
25 T. De Martis F
7 Ousmane Diallo F
80 G. Fabbian M
20 M. Frigan F
22 S. Ghidotti G
47 Abdou Konate M
76 S. Lontani F
27 S. Britschgi D
10 Adrián Bernabé M

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