Udinese vs Lecce Previsione

Serie A Serie A · Regular Season - 7
FT
Post on X
Bluenergy Stadium, Udine
Previsione AI Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Udinese
51%
28%
21%
Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Udinese vs Lecce: Sportiko assegna a Udinese una probabilità di vittoria del 51%, a Lecce del 21% e al pareggio del 28%. Ultimo aggiornamento 18 Oct 2026, 12:26.

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  • Under 3.5 Gol 75%
  • 1st Half Over 0.5 71%
  • 2nd Half Over 0.5 71%
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Match Report

Lecce produced a commanding away performance to defeat Udinese 3–0 in Serie A's seventh round, despite the hosts dominating possession throughout. Kialonda Gaspar opened the scoring in the 11th minute, and Konan N'Dri doubled the advantage on 33 minutes to send Lecce into half-time firmly in control. Udinese's afternoon was further complicated by a flurry of late first-half substitutions, including the withdrawal of Hassane Kamara shortly after receiving a yellow card.

The second half offered Udinese little relief. A Jakub Piotrowski goal was ruled out by VAR on 59 minutes, extinguishing any hope of a comeback, and Jamil Siebert added a third for Lecce in the 86th minute to seal a comprehensive victory. The underlying numbers told a stark story — Lecce generated 3.3 expected goals from 11 shots on target compared to Udinese's meagre 0.33 from just two.

Our pre-match AI model had rated an Udinese win as the most likely outcome at 51%, a call that proved well wide of the mark on the night.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 11'
Kialonda Gaspar assist: Antonino Gallo
⚽ 0–2 33'
Konan N'Dri assist: Tiago Gabriel
⇄ 41'
Lassana Coulibaly ⇄ Mohamed Kaba
Hassane Kamara Yellow Card
43' ▮
David Alaba ⇄ Matteo Palma
45' ⇄
Hassane Kamara ⇄ Juan Arizala
45' ⇄
Oier Zarraga ⇄ Jakub Piotrowski
45' ⇄
HT 0–2
Jakub Piotrowski Goal cancelled
59' 🖵
G. Chakvetadze ⇄ Unai Gómez
64' ⇄
Enzo Ebosse ⇄ Alessandro Zanoli
64' ⇄
⇄ 69'
Amar Fatah ⇄ Santiago Pierotti
⇄ 70'
Willem Geubbels ⇄ Paco Esteban
⇄ 82'
Konan N'Dri ⇄ Joël Monteiro
⇄ 82'
Youssef Maleh ⇄ Jamil Siebert
⚽ 0–3 86'
Jamil Siebert
FT 0–3
Udinese

Match Stats

Lecce
67% Ball Possession 33%
0.33 Expected Goals (xG) 3.3
14 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Goal 11
7 Shots off Goal 4
5 Blocked Shots 2
7 Shots insidebox 15
7 Shots outsidebox 2
1 Corner Kicks 4
3 Offsides 8
10 Fouls 11
1 Yellow Cards 0
0 Red Cards 0
8 Goalkeeper Saves 2
520 Total passes 259
435 Passes accurate 182
10 Free Kicks 10
Udinese
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
40 Maduka Okoye G 7.3 90' – – – 27 (22%) –
28 Oumar Solet D 6.7 90' – – 2 74 (67%) 1
16 Matteo Palma D 6.6 44' – – 2 40 (36%) 2
23 Mërgim Vojvoda M 6.5 90' – – – 63 (47%) 1
5 David Alaba D 6.3 46' – – – 36 (31%) –
32 Jürgen Ekkelenkamp M 6.3 90' – – 1 32 (26%) 1
9 Keinan Davis F 6.3 90' – – 2 23 (19%) 3
77 Enzo Ebosse D 6.2 64' – – – 45 (42%) 1
8 Jesper Karlström M 6.1 90' – – – 56 (46%) 1
20 Juan Arizala M 6.0 44' – – 2 16 (12%) –
24 Jakub Piotrowski M 5.9 44' – – 3 17 (14%) 1
6 Oier Zarraga M 5.9 46' – – – 18 (17%) –
30 G. Chakvetadze M 5.9 64' – – 1 24 (21%) –
59 Alessandro Zanoli D 5.8 26' – – – 16 (13%) 1
46 Unai Gómez M 5.7 26' – – 1 6 (4%) 1
11 Hassane Kamara M 5.1 46' – – – 25 (17%) 1
Lecce
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
11 Konan N'Dri F 8.2 82' 1 – 5 19 (15%) 3
4 Kialonda Gaspar D 8.1 90' 1 – 1 19 (15%) 2
5 Jamil Siebert D 7.9 8' 1 – 1 3 (2%) 1
44 Tiago Gabriel D 7.9 90' – 1 1 19 (17%) 1
17 Danilo Veiga D 7.6 90' – – – 26 (22%) 4
25 Antonino Gallo D 7.1 90' – 1 – 20 (11%) 1
99 Joël Monteiro F 6.9 8' – – – 2 (1%) 1
77 Mohamed Kaba M 6.9 49' – – 1 16 (11%) –
29 Lassana Coulibaly M 6.8 41' – – – 12 (6%) 1
50 Santiago Pierotti F 6.7 21' – – – 10 (7%) 1
79 Oumar Ngom M 6.6 90' – – – 35 (29%) 3
22 Paco Esteban F 6.6 20' – – 2 2 (1%) –
30 Wladimiro Falcone G 6.5 90' – – – 29 (11%) –
14 Youssef Maleh M 6.4 82' – – – 24 (17%) 2
69 Willem Geubbels F 6.3 70' – – 4 6 (4%) –
7 Amar Fatah F 6.2 69' – – 2 16 (13%) –
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Confidence Medium (51%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio
Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Udinese
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Udinese
LLDLL
Lecce
DLLLW
Last 3 meetings Udinese · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

Udinese will face Lecce in a Serie A matchup that promises to be competitive. Udinese has shown solid defensive organization, allowing an average of 1.2 goals per game this season, while Lecce has struggled offensively, scoring only 1 goal per match on average. Both teams will look to capitalize on set pieces, with Udinese having a slightly higher conversion rate from corners. Expect a tactical battle, with midfield control being crucial for both sides. The outcome may hinge on Udinese's ability to break through Lecce's defense early in the match.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
51%
45%
Draw
28%
45%
Away
21%
10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Head to Head: Udinese vs Lecce

2 Udinese Wins
0 Draws
1 Lecce Wins
Date Home Score Away
08 Feb 2026 Lecce 2 - 1 Udinese
25 Oct 2025 Udinese 3 - 2 Lecce
21 Feb 2025 Lecce 0 - 1 Udinese
Vedi tutti i 10 incontri — Premium

Udinese — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
06 Nov A Venezia L 2 - 1
31 Oct H AS Roma L 2 - 5
28 Oct A Parma D 0 - 0
25 Oct H AC Milan L 0 - 2
18 Oct H Lecce L 0 - 3

Lecce — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
07 Nov A Torino D 1 - 1
01 Nov H Genoa L 1 - 2
29 Oct A Frosinone L 5 - 1
25 Oct H Juventus L 0 - 2
18 Oct A Udinese W 0 - 3

Serie A Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Lazio
10 9 1 0 +16 28
2
AS Roma
11 8 3 0 +21 27
3
Inter
10 8 1 1 +13 25
4
Como
10 7 2 1 +10 23
5
AC Milan
10 6 3 1 +9 21
6
Frosinone
11 6 2 3 +9 20
7
Juventus
10 5 2 3 +3 17
8
Bologna
11 5 2 4 +2 17
9
Cagliari
11 5 1 5 -5 16
10
Napoli
10 4 2 4 +4 14
11
Torino
11 4 2 5 -2 14
12
Genoa
10 4 1 5 -4 13
13
Atalanta
10 3 2 5 -4 11
14
Lecce
11 3 1 7 -10 10
15
Fiorentina
10 2 2 6 -8 8
16
Parma
11 2 2 7 -8 8
17
Sassuolo
11 2 2 7 -13 8
18
Monza
10 2 1 7 -7 7
19
Venezia
11 2 0 9 -13 6
20
Udinese
11 1 2 8 -13 5

Udinese

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: K. Runjaic
40 Okoye
77 Ebosse
5 Alaba
28 Solet
11 Kamara
6 Zarraga
8 Karlström
23 Vojvoda
30 Chakvetadze
32 Ekkelenkamp
9 Davis

Starting XI

# Player Pos
40 M. Okoye G
28 O. Solet D
5 D. Alaba D
77 E. Ebosse D
23 M. Vojvoda M
8 J. Karlström M
6 Oier Zarraga M
11 H. Kamara M
32 J. Ekkelenkamp M
30 G. Chakvetadze M
9 K. Davis F

Substitutes

45 G. Vinciati F
13 N. Bertola D
14 J. Abankwah D
24 J. Piotrowski M
59 A. Zanoli D
20 J. Arizala M
46 Unai Gómez M
91 L. Jovanović F
27 C. Kabasele D
4 S. Lovrić M
38 L. Miller M
41 B. Mrozek G
93 D. Padelli G
16 M. Palma D

Lecce

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: E. Di Francesco
30 Falcone
25 Gallo
44 Gabriel
4 Gaspar
17 Veiga
14 Maleh
79 Ngom
29 Coulibaly
7 Fatah
69 Geubbels
11 N’Dri

Starting XI

# Player Pos
30 W. Falcone G
17 Danilo Veiga D
4 Kialonda Gaspar D
44 Tiago Gabriel D
25 A. Gallo D
29 L. Coulibaly M
79 O. Ngom M
14 Y. Maleh M
11 K. N’Dri F
69 W. Geubbels F
7 A. Ahmed Fatah F

Substitutes

22 Paco Esteban F
8 S. Fofana M
16 O. Gandelman M
28 Olaf Gorter M
18 G. Jean D
77 M. Kaba M
99 Joël Monteiro F
3 C. Ndaba D
50 S. Pierotti F
31 E. Scott D
5 J. Siebert D
9 N. Štulić F
32 A. Borbei G
1 M. Bleve G
2 A. Dembélé D

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