FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Previsione

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 7

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Werder Bremen

Away

MEWA ARENA, Mainz

Previsione AI Vittoria o pareggio difficile per FSV Mainz 05

54%

24%

22%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: Sportiko assegna a FSV Mainz 05 una probabilità di vittoria del 54%, a Werder Bremen del 22% e al pareggio del 24%. Ultimo aggiornamento 24 Oct 2026, 15:28.

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1st Half Over 0.5 74%
Ospite a Segno 71%

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Match Report

Werder Bremen claimed a hard-fought 3–2 victory at FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga Matchday 7, despite the hosts carrying the higher expected goals figure of 2.58 to Bremen's 1.73. Niclas Füllkrug set the tone early, converting two penalties in the seventh and 25th minutes to hand the visitors a commanding lead. Mainz pulled one back through Anthony Caci in the 33rd minute, leaving the score 2–1 at the break.

The second half saw the contest swing dramatically. Ludovit Reis equalised for Mainz in the 61st minute, only for Jae-sung Lee to immediately restore Bremen's advantage two minutes later — a decisive blow that the hosts could not recover from. Despite Mainz enjoying seven corner kicks and generating the greater volume of clear-cut opportunities, Bremen's clinical edge in front of goal proved the difference.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Mainz win as the most likely outcome at 54%, a call that did not hold up. Both sides finished with eight shots on target, underlining how tight the contest was, but Bremen held firm to secure all three points.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 7'

Niclas Füllkrug Penalty

⚽ 0–2 25'

Niclas Füllkrug Penalty

Anthony Caci assist: Sheraldo Becker

33' ⚽ 1–2

▮ 38'

Ludovit Reis Yellow Card

⇄ 45'

Olivier Deman ⇄ Mick Schmetgens

HT 1–2

⇄ 59'

M. Weiser ⇄ O. Wójcik

⚽ 1–3 61'

Ludovit Reis assist: Marco Grüll

Jae-sung Lee assist: Anthony Caci

63' ⚽ 2–3

Phillipp Mwene Yellow Card

69' ▮

⇄ 72'

Chuki ⇄ Eren Dinkçi

Jae-sung Lee ⇄ Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer

75' ⇄

Anthony Caci ⇄ Silvan Widmer

75' ⇄

⇄ 81'

Niclas Füllkrug ⇄ Cédric Itten

Sheraldo Becker ⇄ B. Hollerbach

85' ⇄

Danny da Costa ⇄ Paul Nebel

85' ⇄

B. Hollerbach Yellow Card

88' ▮

▮ 89'

Marco Grüll Yellow Card

Kaishu Sano ⇄ Eric Martel

90+1' ⇄

Alexander Schwolow Yellow Card

90+4' ▮

FT 2–3

FSV Mainz 05

Match Stats

Werder Bremen

53% Ball Possession 47%

1.73 Expected Goals (xG) 2.58

18 Total Shots 17

8 Shots on Goal 8

7 Shots off Goal 4

3 Blocked Shots 5

15 Shots insidebox 11

3 Shots outsidebox 6

6 Corner Kicks 7

2 Offsides 0

7 Fouls 5

3 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 0

6 Goalkeeper Saves 6

556 Total passes 509

482 Passes accurate 435

5 Free Kicks 7

FSV Mainz 05

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 Anthony Caci M	8.6	75'	1	1	1	50 (42%)	2
7 Jae-sung Lee M	7.4	75'	1	–	3	36 (30%)	5
23 Sheraldo Becker F	7.4	85'	–	1	2	31 (26%)	–
48 Kacper Potulski D	6.9	90'	–	–	2	70 (67%)	–
6 Kaishu Sano M	6.8	91'	–	–	–	58 (55%)	–
21 Danny da Costa D	6.7	85'	–	–	1	60 (52%)	5
10 Nadiem Amiri M	6.5	90'	–	–	2	64 (52%)	–
1 Alexander Schwolow G	6.5	90'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	–
11 Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer F	6.4	15'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	–
9 Phillip Tietz F	6.3	90'	–	–	5	7 (3%)	–
17 B. Hollerbach F	6.2	5'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
4 Stefan Posch D	6.1	90'	–	–	–	97 (87%)	–
30 Silvan Widmer D	5.9	15'	–	–	–	12 (11%)	1
8 Paul Nebel M	5.9	5'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	1
2 Phillipp Mwene M	5.4	90'	–	–	2	40 (32%)	2

Werder Bremen

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
15 Ludovit Reis M	8.2	90'	1	–	2	58 (56%)	2
1 Karl Hein G	7.6	90'	–	–	–	31 (22%)	–
10 Niclas Füllkrug F	7.3	81'	2	–	4	39 (30%)	1
17 Marco Grüll M	7.0	90'	–	1	1	35 (28%)	1
8 M. Weiser M	6.9	59'	–	–	2	24 (21%)	–
5 Amos Pieper D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	62 (57%)	1
13 Arthur D	6.7	90'	–	–	1	45 (40%)	1
44 Youri Regeer M	6.6	90'	–	–	–	59 (55%)	3
18 Eren Dinkçi F	6.6	18'	–	–	1	7 (4%)	1
32 Marco Friedl D	6.5	90'	–	–	1	70 (63%)	1
26 Cédric Itten F	6.4	9'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
20 Chuki M	6.4	72'	–	–	2	19 (13%)	–
33 Mick Schmetgens D	6.3	44'	–	–	–	13 (9%)	4
3 O. Wójcik D	6.2	31'	–	–	1	4 (3%)	–
2 Olivier Deman D	5.8	46'	–	–	–	34 (28%)	1

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Confidence Medium (54%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio

Vittoria o pareggio difficile per FSV Mainz 05

Most likely score

Both teams to score

Over 2.5 goals

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FSV Mainz 05

LLLLW

Werder Bremen

LWLWD

Last 3 meetings FSV Mainz 05 · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

FSV Mainz 05 hosts Werder Bremen in a Bundesliga clash on October 24, 2026. Mainz has shown defensive resilience this season, averaging 1.2 goals conceded per match, while Bremen's attacking prowess has been a key asset, scoring an average of 1.5 goals per game. Both teams will be looking to solidify their mid-table positions, making this encounter crucial for momentum. The effectiveness of Mainz's defense against Bremen's attack will be pivotal in determining the outcome.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

54%

10%

Draw

24%

45%

Away

22%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

FSV Mainz 05

P. Tietz 5 gls

A. Caci 3 gls

Werder Bremen

N. Füllkrug 9 gls

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Head to Head: FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen

1 FSV Mainz 05 Wins

1 Draws

1 Werder Bremen Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
15 Mar 2026	Werder Bremen	0 - 2	FSV Mainz 05
01 Nov 2025	FSV Mainz 05	1 - 1	Werder Bremen
31 Jan 2025	Werder Bremen	1 - 0	FSV Mainz 05

Vedi tutti i 10 incontri — Premium

FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Nov	H Bayern München	L	1 - 2
30 Oct	A SV Elversberg	L	4 - 1
27 Oct	A VfL Bochum	L	2 - 0
24 Oct	H Werder Bremen	L	2 - 3
17 Oct	A FC Schalke 04	W	0 - 1

Werder Bremen — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Nov	A VfB Stuttgart	L	1 - 0
31 Oct	H 1899 Hoffenheim	W	2 - 0
27 Oct	A Borussia Dortmund	L	3 - 2
24 Oct	A FSV Mainz 05	W	2 - 3
17 Oct	H SC Paderborn 07	D	2 - 2

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	29	9	+20	21
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	16	7	+9	21
3	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	27	13	+14	18
4	SC Freiburg	8	5	1	2	18	10	+8	16
5	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	17	15	+2	15
6	Bayer Leverkusen	8	4	1	3	18	16	+2	13
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	17	18	-1	13
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	15	15	0	12
9	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	15	20	-5	12
10	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	10	20	-10	12
11	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	18	19	-1	10
12	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	8	11	-3	10
13	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	20	20	0	9
14	1899 Hoffenheim	8	3	0	5	14	16	-2	9
15	1. FC Köln	8	2	3	3	9	12	-3	9
16	Union Berlin	8	1	4	3	7	19	-12	7
17	FC Schalke 04	8	1	3	4	4	9	-5	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	12	25	-13	4