SC Freiburg vs Bayern München Previsione

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 7

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Bayern München

Away

Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund

Previsione AI Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Bayern München

16%

20%

63%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico SC Freiburg vs Bayern München: Sportiko assegna a SC Freiburg una probabilità di vittoria del 16%, a Bayern München del 63% e al pareggio del 20%. Ultimo aggiornamento 25 Oct 2026, 18:27.

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5 76%
Away 2H Over 0.5 75%
Ospite a Segno 2+ 72%
Casa a Segno 72%
Oltre 2.5 Gol 73%

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Match Report

Bayern München claimed a comfortable 3–1 victory at SC Freiburg, with the result effectively settled before the interval. Dayot Upamecano opened the scoring in the 16th minute, and Serge Gnabry doubled the advantage just before the break to leave Freiburg with a significant deficit to overcome at half-time. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Bayern win as the most likely outcome at 63%, a call that proved correct.

The second half brought a flurry of substitutions from both sides, but it was an 82nd-minute own goal from Tom Bischof that ended any realistic hope of a Freiburg comeback, extending Bayern's lead to three. Michael Olise added a fourth in stoppage time to round off the scoring.

Despite Freiburg enjoying 56% possession and generating 17 total shots — matching Bayern's tally — the visitors were more clinical when it mattered, posting an expected goals figure of 2.44 against Freiburg's 1.07. The result keeps Bayern firmly in contention at the top of the Bundesliga standings.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 16'

Dayot Upamecano assist: Michael Olise

Lucas Höler Yellow Card

25' ▮

⚽ 0–2 42'

S. Gnabry assist: Nathaniel Brown

HT 0–2

Jan-Niklas Beste Yellow Card

55' ▮

Lucas Höler ⇄ Igor Matanović

57' ⇄

Patrick Osterhage ⇄ Rihito Yamamoto

58' ⇄

⇄ 61'

Josip Stanišić ⇄ Sacha Boey

⇄ 61'

S. Gnabry ⇄ Ismael Saibari

Jan-Niklas Beste ⇄ Cyriaque Irié

64' ⇄

▮ 65'

Jonathan Tah Yellow Card

⇄ 73'

Nathaniel Brown ⇄ Alphonso Davies

Derry Scherhant ⇄ Vincenzo Grifo

77' ⇄

Philipp Lienhart ⇄ Maximilian Rosenfelder

77' ⇄

Tom Bischof Own Goal

82' ⚽ 1–2

Maximilian Eggestein Yellow Card

85' ▮

⇄ 86'

Lennart Karl ⇄ Hiroki Itō

⚽ 1–3 90+5'

Michael Olise

FT 1–3

SC Freiburg

Match Stats

Bayern München

44% Ball Possession 56%

1.07 Expected Goals (xG) 2.44

17 Total Shots 17

5 Shots on Goal 9

5 Shots off Goal 7

7 Blocked Shots 1

9 Shots insidebox 13

8 Shots outsidebox 4

5 Corner Kicks 6

1 Offsides 1

9 Fouls 11

3 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 0

6 Goalkeeper Saves 5

405 Total passes 524

332 Passes accurate 441

11 Free Kicks 9

SC Freiburg

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
31 Igor Matanović F	6.9	33'	–	–	4	6 (6%)	2
1 Mio Backhaus G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	45 (31%)	–
14 Yuito Suzuki M	6.6	90'	–	–	1	18 (14%)	1
28 Matthias Ginter D	6.6	90'	–	–	1	59 (51%)	–
3 Philipp Lienhart D	6.4	77'	–	–	–	57 (51%)	2
22 Cyriaque Irié F	6.4	26'	–	–	2	9 (8%)	1
32 Vincenzo Grifo M	6.3	13'	–	–	1	8 (7%)	–
8 Maximilian Eggestein M	6.2	90'	–	–	1	41 (38%)	3
9 Lucas Höler F	6.2	57'	–	–	3	10 (6%)	–
6 Patrick Osterhage M	6.1	58'	–	–	1	18 (14%)	3
7 Derry Scherhant M	6.0	77'	–	–	1	16 (12%)	3
33 Jordy Makengo D	6.0	90'	–	–	–	31 (25%)	2
37 Maximilian Rosenfelder D	5.9	13'	–	–	–	11 (9%)	–
29 Philipp Treu D	5.8	90'	–	–	–	39 (34%)	1
19 Jan-Niklas Beste M	5.8	64'	–	–	2	16 (9%)	–
20 Rihito Yamamoto M	5.8	32'	–	–	–	19 (16%)	–

Bayern München

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
17 Michael Olise M	9.0	90'	1	1	3	43 (34%)	1
7 S. Gnabry M	7.9	61'	1	–	3	28 (22%)	2
2 Dayot Upamecano D	7.8	90'	1	–	2	63 (58%)	4
40 Jonas Urbig G	7.5	90'	–	–	–	55 (40%)	–
11 Nathaniel Brown D	7.3	73'	–	1	2	33 (28%)	–
27 Konrad Laimer M	7.1	90'	–	–	–	49 (46%)	1
23 Sacha Boey D	6.9	29'	–	–	–	12 (9%)	1
34 Ismael Saibari M	6.8	29'	–	–	4	14 (13%)	1
44 Josip Stanišić D	6.8	61'	–	–	–	31 (28%)	–
19 Alphonso Davies D	6.7	17'	–	–	–	6 (3%)	1
4 Jonathan Tah D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	66 (60%)	2
21 Hiroki Itō D	6.6	4'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
9 Harry Kane F	6.4	90'	–	–	2	32 (27%)	1
42 Lennart Karl M	6.3	86'	–	–	1	29 (21%)	2
8 Tom Bischof M	6.2	90'	–	–	–	60 (50%)	2

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Confidence Medium (63%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio

Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Bayern München

Most likely score

Both teams to score

Over 2.5 goals

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SC Freiburg

WWWLL

Bayern München

WWDWW

Last 3 meetings SC Freiburg · 0W 0D 3L

Match summary

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash, SC Freiburg faces Bayern München, a match that promises an intriguing contest. Freiburg has been solid defensively, averaging only 1.2 goals conceded per match this season, while Bayern boasts one of the highest-scoring offenses, netting an average of 2.8 goals per game. The key matchup will center around Freiburg's ability to contain Bayern’s potent attack, led by their star forwards. Additionally, Bayern's midfield control will be critical to breaking down Freiburg's defense. With both teams aiming for crucial points, tactical discipline will be essential for Freiburg to challenge Bayern's dominance.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

16%

10%

Draw

20%

45%

Away

63%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

SC Freiburg

I. Matanović 4 gls

Y. Suzuki 4 gls

Bayern München

M. Olise 6 gls

L. Díaz 4 gls

H. Kane 4 gls

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Head to Head: SC Freiburg vs Bayern München

0 SC Freiburg Wins

0 Draws

3 Bayern München Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
04 Apr 2026	SC Freiburg	2 - 3	Bayern München
22 Nov 2025	Bayern München	6 - 2	SC Freiburg
25 Jan 2025	SC Freiburg	1 - 2	Bayern München

Vedi tutti i 10 incontri — Premium

SC Freiburg — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
05 Nov	A Trabzonspor	W	0 - 1
31 Oct	A FC Augsburg	W	1 - 2
28 Oct	H VfL Wolfsburg	W	3 - 2
25 Oct	H Bayern München	L	1 - 3
22 Oct	A Monaco	L	3 - 0

Bayern München — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Nov	A FSV Mainz 05	W	1 - 2
03 Nov	A Atletico Madrid	W	0 - 2
31 Oct	H Borussia Dortmund	D	2 - 2
28 Oct	H 1. FC Magdeburg	W	6 - 1
25 Oct	A SC Freiburg	W	1 - 3

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	29	9	+20	21
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	16	7	+9	21
3	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	27	13	+14	18
4	SC Freiburg	8	5	1	2	18	10	+8	16
5	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	17	15	+2	15
6	Bayer Leverkusen	8	4	1	3	18	16	+2	13
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	17	18	-1	13
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	15	15	0	12
9	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	15	20	-5	12
10	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	10	20	-10	12
11	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	18	19	-1	10
12	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	8	11	-3	10
13	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	20	20	0	9
14	1899 Hoffenheim	8	3	0	5	14	16	-2	9
15	1. FC Köln	8	2	3	3	9	12	-3	9
16	Union Berlin	8	1	4	3	7	19	-12	7
17	FC Schalke 04	8	1	3	4	4	9	-5	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	12	25	-13	4