Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid Previsione

La Liga · Regular Season - 18

03 Jan 2027, 16:00

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Atletico Madrid

Away

Previsione AI Atletico Madrid vince o pareggia

21%

73%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid: Sportiko assegna a Rayo Vallecano una probabilità di vittoria del 6%, a Atletico Madrid del 73% e al pareggio del 21%. Ultimo aggiornamento 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

0:2 · 17.7%

Both teams to score

32%

Over 2.5 goals

43%

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Rayo Vallecano

DWLWL

Atletico Madrid

WWWLL

Last 3 meetings Rayo Vallecano · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In this La Liga clash, Rayo Vallecano will face Atletico Madrid, a match that promises tactical intrigue. Rayo Vallecano has shown solid form at home, averaging 1.5 goals per match this season, while their defense has been relatively sturdy, conceding 1.2 goals per game. Atletico Madrid, on the other hand, has been potent in attack, boasting an average of 2.1 goals per match. Their defensive record is also impressive, allowing only 0.9 goals per game. The key battle will likely be in midfield, where Rayo's pressing could disrupt Atletico's rhythm. This matchup could hinge on set pieces, where both teams have shown effectiveness, making it a closely contested affair.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

10%

Draw

21%

45%

Away

73%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Atletico Madrid goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10	17	18	12	6	2
1	3	9	8	5	3	1
2	1	2	2	1	1
3
4
5

↑ Rayo Vallecano goals · most likely 0–2 (17.7%)

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Players in form

Rayo Vallecano

Sergio Camello 7 gls

Atletico Madrid

Álex Baena 4 gls

J. David 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

73%

Draw

21%

Home Win

Both Teams To Score

68% BTTS No 32% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

30%

1.5

70%

57%

2.5

43%

79%

3.5

21%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

73%

Draw

21%

Home Win

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

92% Away (No Draw) 8% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

47% Away Win by 2+ 1% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

73% Away Scores More 21% Equal Goals 6% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

30%

1.5

70%

57%

2.5

43%

79%

3.5

21%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

68% BTTS No 32% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

20%

27%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.1%	16.9%	17.7%	11.7%	5.8%
1	3.0%	8.9%	7.8%	5.1%	2.6%
2	0.9%	1.7%	1.7%	1.1%	0.6%
3	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

34%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

35%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Rayo Vallecano	Draw	Atletico Madrid
Rayo Vallecano	3.8%	2.3%	1.5%
Draw	2.7%	14.7%	20.7%
Atletico Madrid	0.3%	2.1%	52.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

93%

1.5

99%

2.5

100%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

64%

28%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

79%

0.5

21%

98%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

81%

0.5

19%

98%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

42%

1.5

58%

69%

2.5

31%

87%

3.5

13%

Away Exact Goals

14%

28%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

74%

1.5

26%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid

1 Rayo Vallecano Wins

0 Draws

2 Atletico Madrid Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
15 Feb 2026	Rayo Vallecano	3 - 0	Atletico Madrid
24 Sep 2025	Atletico Madrid	3 - 2	Rayo Vallecano
24 Apr 2025	Atletico Madrid	3 - 0	Rayo Vallecano

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Rayo Vallecano — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Osasuna	D	1 - 1
15 Sep	H Espanyol	W	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Real Madrid	L	4 - 1
05 Sep	H Racing Santander	W	3 - 2
31 Aug	A Barcelona	L	5 - 2

Atletico Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Real Madrid	W	2 - 1
16 Sep	H Osasuna	W	4 - 0
13 Sep	A Real Sociedad	W	0 - 3
09 Sep	A Liverpool	L	2 - 1
05 Sep	A Athletic Club	L	3 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.