Valencia vs Real Madrid Previsione
Pronostico Valencia vs Real Madrid: Sportiko assegna a Valencia una probabilità di vittoria del 8%, a Real Madrid del 75% e al pareggio del 17%. Ultimo aggiornamento 7 Nov 2026, 21:59.
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Match Report
Real Madrid made light work of Valencia at Mestalla, securing a comfortable 3–0 victory in Matchday 12 of La Liga. Federico Valverde opened the scoring in the 28th minute, and Arda Güler doubled the advantage eight minutes later to give Carlo Ancelotti's side full control heading into the break. The stats told the story of a thoroughly dominant first half.
The second half offered little resistance from Valencia. Real Madrid's superiority was reflected in the numbers — 69% possession, 11 shots on target, and an expected goals figure of 2.26 against Valencia's meagre 0.24. Kylian Mbappé added a third on 75 minutes to put the result beyond doubt, before the match descended into ill-temper late on, with José Luis Gayà receiving a red card in the 79th minute and a flurry of bookings issued to players from both sides.
The result was a routine one for the visitors, and it aligned with our pre-match AI model's assessment, which had rated a Real Madrid win as the most likely outcome at 75%. Valencia were rarely able to threaten, managing just two shots on goal across the entire ninety minutes.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Valencia
Match Stats
Valencia
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Stole Dimitrievski G | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 32 (12%) | – |
| 7 Arnaut Danjuma F | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 14 (14%) | – |
| 6 Umar Sadiq F | 6.3 | 59' | – | – | – | 7 (4%) | 2 |
| 5 César Tárrega D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 15 (15%) | 4 |
| 37 Aimar Blázquez F | 6.2 | 31' | – | – | – | 6 (3%) | – |
| 33 Aaron Mayol M | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 27 (23%) | 2 |
| 11 Luis Rioja F | 6.0 | 44' | – | – | – | 20 (14%) | 2 |
| 18 Pepelu D | 6.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 32 (30%) | 1 |
| 8 Javier Guerra M | 5.9 | 82' | – | – | – | 21 (15%) | 3 |
| 21 Jesús Vázquez D | 5.9 | 8' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
| 12 Justin De Haas D | 5.8 | 46' | – | – | – | 11 (9%) | – |
| 23 Filip Ugrinić M | 5.7 | 27' | – | – | – | 12 (10%) | – |
| 22 Arnau Martínez D | 5.6 | 27' | – | – | – | 12 (12%) | – |
| 14 José Luis Gayà D | 5.4 | 79' | – | – | 1 | 21 (20%) | 1 |
| 2 Guido Rodríguez M | 5.4 | 63' | – | – | – | 25 (18%) | 1 |
| 24 Pablo Maffeo D | 5.4 | 63' | – | – | – | 20 (15%) | – |
Real Madrid
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Arda Güler M | 9.0 | 84' | 1 | 1 | 2 | 44 (39%) | 1 |
| 8 Federico Valverde D | 8.6 | 90' | 1 | – | 2 | 56 (50%) | 1 |
| 16 Ibrahima Konaté D | 8.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 63 (61%) | – |
| 4 Dean Huijsen D | 7.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 84 (78%) | 1 |
| 17 Marc Cucurella D | 7.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 78 (75%) | 2 |
| 10 Kylian Mbappé F | 7.7 | 91' | 1 | – | 6 | 35 (27%) | – |
| 5 Jude Bellingham M | 7.3 | 91' | – | – | 2 | 49 (45%) | 2 |
| 14 Aurélien Tchouaméni M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 56 (51%) | – |
| 20 Bernardo Silva M | 7.2 | 84' | – | – | 1 | 50 (46%) | 1 |
| 1 Thibaut Courtois G | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 25 (19%) | – |
| 6 Eduardo Camavinga M | 7.0 | 6' | – | – | – | 9 (9%) | – |
| 25 Yan Diomande M | 6.8 | 84' | – | – | 1 | 55 (45%) | 3 |
| 21 Brahim Díaz M | 6.7 | 6' | – | – | 1 | 8 (8%) | – |
| 9 Endrick F | 6.6 | 6' | – | – | 1 | 3 (3%) | – |
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At a glance
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Upgrade NowMatch summary
Live insights
Min 83: Real Madrid leads 0-3. Win probability: 100%. Comeback chance: 0%.
Real Madrid now leads 0-3 with 100% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 41.2%.
Min 75: Real Madrid leads 0-2. Win probability: 99.5%. Comeback chance: 0.5%.
Half-time: 0-2. Real Madrid leads. Win probability: 98.1%. Over 0.5 more goals: 81%.
Real Madrid now leads 0-2 with 97.9% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 85.6%.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
No scorer data.
Kylian Mbappé
12 gls
J. Bellingham
4 gls
Y. Diomande
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Valencia vs Real Madrid
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb 2026 | Valencia | 0 - 2 | Real Madrid |
| 01 Nov 2025 | Real Madrid | 4 - 0 | Valencia |
| 05 Apr 2025 | Real Madrid | 1 - 2 | Valencia |
Valencia — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | H Real Madrid | L | 0 - 3 |
| 01 Nov | A Elche | W | 0 - 1 |
| 24 Oct | H Villarreal | L | 1 - 2 |
| 17 Oct | H Athletic Club | D | 0 - 0 |
| 11 Oct | A Racing Santander | D | 2 - 2 |
Real Madrid — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | A Valencia | W | 0 - 3 |
| 04 Nov | A AEK Athens FC | W | 2 - 3 |
| 01 Nov | A Racing Santander | W | 0 - 3 |
| 25 Oct | A Barcelona | W | 1 - 2 |
| 21 Oct | H RB Leipzig | W | 4 - 1 |
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Barcelona
|
11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 46 | 12 | +34 | 30 |
| 2 |
Real Madrid
|
12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 30 |
| 3 |
Atletico Madrid
|
11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 8 | +14 | 28 |
| 4 |
Real Betis
|
11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 5 |
Real Sociedad
|
11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 19 |
| 6 |
Sevilla
|
12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 |
Athletic Club
|
11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |
Deportivo La Coruna
|
12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |
Racing Santander
|
12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 14 |
| 10 |
Alaves
|
12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 |
Villarreal
|
11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 |
Celta Vigo
|
11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 |
Espanyol
|
12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 |
Rayo Vallecano
|
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |
Getafe
|
11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 12 |
| 16 |
Osasuna
|
12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 |
Elche
|
11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 10 |
| 18 |
Levante
|
11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 10 |
| 19 |
Valencia
|
12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
| 20 |
Malaga
|
12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
Valencia
Formation: 5-3-2
Coach: J. Aguirre
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | S. Dimitrievski | G |
| 24 | Pablo Maffeo | D |
| 18 | Pepelu | D |
| 5 | César Tárrega | D |
| 12 | J. de Haas | D |
| 14 | José Gayà | D |
| 8 | Javi Guerra | M |
| 2 | G. Rodríguez | M |
| 33 | Aaron Mayol | M |
| 6 | U. Sadiq | F |
| 7 | A. Danjuma | F |
Substitutes
| 37 | Aimar Blázquez | F |
| 4 | M. Diakhaby | D |
| 15 | A. Dieng | M |
| 9 | Hugo Duro | F |
| 10 | H. Elliott | M |
| 22 | Arnau Martínez | D |
| 19 | Dani Raba | F |
| 11 | Luis Rioja | F |
| 23 | F. Ugrinic | M |
| 21 | Jesús Vázquez | D |
| 25 | K. van Oevelen | G |
| 3 | Copete | D |
Real Madrid
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: José Mourinho
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | T. Courtois | G |
| 8 | F. Valverde | D |
| 16 | I. Konaté | D |
| 4 | D. Huijsen | D |
| 17 | Marc Cucurella | D |
| 20 | Bernardo Silva | M |
| 14 | A. Tchouaméni | M |
| 15 | A. Güler | M |
| 5 | J. Bellingham | M |
| 25 | Y. Diomande | M |
| 10 | Kylian Mbappé | F |
Substitutes
| 27 | Thiago Pitarch | M |
| 26 | Sergio Mestre | G |
| 13 | A. Lunin | G |
| 19 | Carlos Espí | F |
| 9 | Endrick | F |
| 3 | Éder Militão | D |
| 24 | D. Dumfries | D |
| 21 | Brahim Díaz | M |
| 18 | Álvaro Fernández | D |
| 6 | E. Camavinga | M |
| 12 | T. Alexander-Arnold | D |
| 22 | A. Rüdiger | D |