Elche vs Valencia Previsione

La Liga · Regular Season - 11

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Valencia

Away

Estadio José Díez Iborra (Ciudad Deportiva de Elche), Elche

Previsione AI Elche o pareggio

40%

29%

31%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Elche vs Valencia: Sportiko assegna a Elche una probabilità di vittoria del 40%, a Valencia del 31% e al pareggio del 29%. Ultimo aggiornamento 1 Nov 2026, 19:25.

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Casa a Segno 76%
Oltre 1.5 Gol 75%
Ospite a Segno 70%

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Match Report

Valencia claimed a narrow 1–0 victory at Elche in La Liga's eleventh matchday, with the decisive moment coming in the second half. The first half ended goalless despite Valencia's dominance in possession, with Thomas Lemar forced off through injury as early as the 24th minute. Yellow cards for Germán Valera and Víctor Chust added some edge to a scrappy opening period.

Valencia's control became increasingly apparent after the break, as they held 69% of the ball and registered 15 total shots to Elche's five. A flurry of substitutions around the hour mark reshaped the contest, and it was Umar Sadiq who made the difference in the 69th minute, converting what proved to be the only goal of the game. Despite Elche's expected goals figure of 0.96 suggesting they created reasonable chances on paper, they managed just three shots on target and could not find an equaliser.

Our pre-match AI model had rated an Elche win as the most likely outcome at 40%, a call that ultimately proved wide of the mark. Valencia move on with three points, while Elche remain under pressure at the bottom end of the table.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Thomas Lemar ⇄ Facundo Buonanotte

24' ⇄

Germán Valera Yellow Card

36' ▮

Víctor Chust Yellow Card

42' ▮

HT 0–0

⇄ 61'

Pablo Maffeo ⇄ Umar Sadiq

Facundo Buonanotte Yellow Card

62' ▮

Germán Valera ⇄ Tete Morente

68' ⇄

Buba Sangare ⇄ Rubén Sánchez

68' ⇄

Lucas Cepeda ⇄ Abiel Osorio

68' ⇄

⚽ 0–1 69'

Umar Sadiq assist: Arnaut Danjuma

▮ 73'

Javier Guerra Yellow Card

⇄ 78'

Luis Rioja ⇄ Dani Raba

⇄ 78'

Aaron Mayol ⇄ Filip Ugrinić

Javi Morcillo ⇄ Grady Diangana

78' ⇄

⇄ 88'

Arnaut Danjuma ⇄ Jesús Vázquez

⇄ 88'

Javier Guerra ⇄ Mouctar Diakhaby

▮ 90+1'

Stole Dimitrievski Yellow Card

FT 0–1

Elche

Match Stats

Valencia

69% Ball Possession 31%

0.87 Expected Goals (xG) 0.96

15 Total Shots 5

3 Shots on Goal 3

9 Shots off Goal 2

3 Blocked Shots 0

8 Shots insidebox 4

5 Shots outsidebox 1

7 Corner Kicks 2

2 Offsides 6

9 Fouls 15

3 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 0

2 Goalkeeper Saves 3

617 Total passes 280

558 Passes accurate 222

15 Free Kicks 9

Elche

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
5 Federico Redondo D	7.3	90'	–	–	2	82 (76%)	2
12 Gonzalo Villar M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	57 (51%)	5
3 Roy Revivo D	7.2	90'	–	–	2	47 (42%)	–
23 Víctor Chust D	7.1	90'	–	–	1	125 (120%)	1
18 Thomas Lemar M	6.9	24'	–	–	–	22 (22%)	1
2 Buba Sangare D	6.8	68'	–	–	–	44 (40%)	2
47 Javi Morcillo M	6.7	78'	–	–	–	59 (56%)	–
22 Rubén Sánchez D	6.7	22'	–	–	–	14 (11%)	1
1 Matías Dituro G	6.6	90'	–	–	1	32 (28%)	–
10 Facundo Buonanotte M	6.5	66'	–	–	3	23 (22%)	–
20 Tete Morente F	6.4	22'	–	–	–	12 (9%)	–
19 Grady Diangana F	6.3	12'	–	–	–	4 (2%)	–
24 Abiel Osorio F	6.3	22'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
21 Lucas Cepeda F	6.2	68'	–	–	2	41 (32%)	–
14 Fernando Niño F	6.0	90'	–	–	3	14 (10%)	2
11 Germán Valera D	5.9	68'	–	–	1	37 (34%)	–

Valencia

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
18 Pepelu D	7.6	90'	–	–	–	36 (33%)	3
5 César Tárrega D	7.5	90'	–	–	1	36 (31%)	3
6 Umar Sadiq F	7.5	29'	1	–	3	5 (3%)	–
7 Arnaut Danjuma F	7.3	88'	–	1	–	18 (14%)	–
2 Guido Rodríguez M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	40 (38%)	2
22 Arnau Martínez D	7.1	90'	–	–	–	22 (17%)	2
1 Stole Dimitrievski G	7.0	90'	–	–	–	29 (18%)	–
4 Mouctar Diakhaby D	7.0	2'	–	–	–	–	–
14 José Luis Gayà D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	21 (16%)	2
21 Jesús Vázquez D	6.9	2'	–	–	–	–	–
23 Filip Ugrinić M	6.8	12'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
11 Luis Rioja M	6.7	78'	–	–	–	18 (13%)	–
24 Pablo Maffeo M	6.5	61'	–	–	1	11 (6%)	–
33 Aaron Mayol M	6.5	78'	–	–	–	19 (16%)	–
8 Javier Guerra F	6.3	88'	–	–	–	19 (14%)	1
19 Dani Raba F	6.1	12'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–

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Confidence Low (40%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio

Elche o pareggio

Most likely score

Both teams to score

Over 2.5 goals

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Elche

DLWWD

Valencia

LWLDD

Last 3 meetings Elche · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming La Liga match, Elche faces Valencia, both teams striving for crucial points in the league. Elche has struggled defensively this season, conceding an average of 2 goals per match, which could be exploited by Valencia's potent attack, averaging 1.5 goals per game. Valencia's recent form shows improvement, having won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Elche has only secured 1 victory in the same span. This matchup is pivotal for both teams as they look to enhance their standings and secure their league status. The outcome will heavily depend on Elche's ability to tighten their defense against Valencia's offensive threats.

Live insights

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Valencia leads 0-1. Win probability: 82.9%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 17.1%.

69' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 0-1. Valencia win: 78.6%. BTTS: 28%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 0-0. Second half goals expected - Over 0.5 remaining: 71.6%. Over 1.5 remaining: 39.3%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

40%

10%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

31%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Elche

Fer Niño 6 gls

Valencia

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Elche vs Valencia

1 Elche Wins

1 Draws

1 Valencia Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
11 Apr 2026	Elche	1 - 0	Valencia
10 Jan 2026	Valencia	1 - 1	Elche
23 Apr 2023	Elche	0 - 2	Valencia

Vedi tutti i 10 incontri — Premium

Elche — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
08 Nov	H Real Betis	D	0 - 0
01 Nov	H Valencia	L	0 - 1
27 Oct	A Pinatar	W	1 - 3
24 Oct	A Rayo Vallecano	W	0 - 3
17 Oct	A Villarreal	D	0 - 0

Valencia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Nov	H Real Madrid	L	0 - 3
01 Nov	A Elche	W	0 - 1
24 Oct	H Villarreal	L	1 - 2
17 Oct	H Athletic Club	D	0 - 0
11 Oct	A Racing Santander	D	2 - 2

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	11	10	0	1	46	12	+34	30
2	Real Madrid	12	10	0	2	31	10	+21	30
3	Atletico Madrid	11	9	1	1	22	8	+14	28
4	Real Betis	11	7	2	2	18	15	+3	23
5	Real Sociedad	11	6	1	4	20	20	0	19
6	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	17	19	-2	18
7	Athletic Club	11	4	4	3	15	11	+4	16
8	Deportivo La Coruna	12	3	6	3	15	14	+1	15
9	Racing Santander	12	4	2	6	17	30	-13	14
10	Alaves	12	3	4	5	15	17	-2	13
11	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	15	15	0	12
12	Celta Vigo	11	2	6	3	10	10	0	12
13	Espanyol	12	3	3	6	13	14	-1	12
14	Rayo Vallecano	10	3	3	4	15	20	-5	12
15	Getafe	11	3	3	5	8	16	-8	12
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	12	23	-11	12
17	Elche	11	2	4	5	14	18	-4	10
18	Levante	11	2	4	5	16	21	-5	10
19	Valencia	12	2	3	7	8	20	-12	9
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	9	23	-14	5

Valencia

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: J. Aguirre

1 Dimitrievski

14 Gayà

18 Pepelu

5 Tárrega

22 Martínez

11 Rioja

2 Rodríguez

33 Mayol

24 Maffeo

7 Danjuma

8 Guerra

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	S. Dimitrievski	G
22	Arnau Martínez	D
5	César Tárrega	D
18	Pepelu	D
14	José Gayà	D
24	Pablo Maffeo	M
33	Aaron Mayol	M
2	G. Rodríguez	M
11	Luis Rioja	M
8	Javi Guerra	F
7	A. Danjuma	F

Substitutes

37	Aimar Blázquez	F
4	M. Diakhaby	D
15	A. Dieng	M
9	Hugo Duro	F
20	D. Foulquier	D
19	Dani Raba	F
13	Cristian Rivero	G
6	U. Sadiq	F
39	R. Sato	M
23	F. Ugrinic	M
21	Jesús Vázquez	D
12	J. de Haas	D

Elche

Formation: 5-3-2 Coach: M. Anselmi

1 Dituro

11 Valera

3 Revivo

23 Chust

5 Redondo

2 Sangaré

18 Lemar

47 Morcillo

12 Villar

14 Niño

21 Cepeda

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	M. Dituro	G
2	Buba Sangaré	D
5	F. Redondo	D
23	Víctor Chust	D
3	R. Revivo	D
11	Germán Valera	D
12	Gonzalo Villar	M
47	J. Morcillo	M
18	T. Lemar	M
21	L. Cepeda	F
14	Fer Niño	F

Substitutes

10	F. Buonanotte	M
22	Rubén Sánchez	D
16	Martim Neto	M
6	Bigas	D
19	G. Diangana	F
17	Josan	M
29	Ali Houary	F
13	Alejandro Iturbe	G
15	K. Lomónaco	D
20	Tete Morente	F
24	A. Osorio	F
9	E. Ponce	F