Real Madrid vs Sevilla Previsione

La Liga · Regular Season - 9

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Sevilla

Away

Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

Previsione AI Real Madrid vince o pareggia

75%

17%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Real Madrid vs Sevilla: Sportiko assegna a Real Madrid una probabilità di vittoria del 75%, a Sevilla del 8% e al pareggio del 17%. Ultimo aggiornamento 18 Oct 2026, 21:03.

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Under 4.5 76%
Casa a Segno 2+ 74%
Home 1H Over 0.5 71%

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Match Report

Real Madrid secured a comfortable 4–1 victory over Sevilla in Matchday 9 of La Liga, with the hosts dominant despite controlling just 35% of possession. The opening half was settled by two goals in quick succession, Arda Güler breaking the deadlock on 30 minutes before Kylian Mbappé doubled the advantage seven minutes later, sending Madrid into the break in full control.

The second half followed a similar pattern. Mbappé added a third from the penalty spot on 63 minutes, effectively ending the contest. Sevilla managed a late consolation through Manu Bueno on 80 minutes, but Madrid responded almost immediately as Yan Diomande restored the three-goal cushion two minutes later. The visitors' expected goals figure of 2.28 against Madrid's 0.81 highlights how efficiently the hosts converted their chances despite the territorial advantage belonging to Sevilla.

The result was in line with pre-match expectations — our AI model had identified a Real Madrid win as the most probable outcome at 75%. Madrid's clinical finishing and defensive solidity proved decisive, with Mbappé's brace the standout contribution of the afternoon.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 23'

Félix Correia Yellow Card

Dean Huijsen Yellow Card

23' ▮

Arda Güler assist: Yan Diomande

30' ⚽ 1–0

Kylian Mbappé assist: Jude Bellingham

37' ⚽ 2–0

⇄ 45'

Rubén Vargas ⇄ Chidera Ejuke

HT 2–0

⇄ 56'

Robbie Ure ⇄ Lucas Stassin

⇄ 56'

Peque Fernández ⇄ Manu Bueno

Kylian Mbappé Penalty

63' ⚽ 3–0

▮ 69'

Juan Iglesias Yellow Card

Endrick ⇄ Brahim Díaz

69' ⇄

Jude Bellingham ⇄ Bernardo Silva

70' ⇄

⇄ 72'

Juan Iglesias ⇄ José Ángel Carmona

Marc Cucurella Yellow Card

73' ▮

⇄ 73'

Félix Correia ⇄ Alfon González

Arda Güler ⇄ Eduardo Camavinga

78' ⇄

⚽ 3–1 80'

Manu Bueno assist: Lucas Stassin

Yan Diomande assist: Aurélien Tchouaméni

82' ⚽ 4–1

Kylian Mbappé ⇄ Carlos Espí

85' ⇄

Federico Valverde ⇄ Éder Militão

85' ⇄

FT 4–1

Real Madrid

Match Stats

Sevilla

65% Ball Possession 35%

2.28 Expected Goals (xG) 0.81

15 Total Shots 11

8 Shots on Goal 5

5 Shots off Goal 4

2 Blocked Shots 2

10 Shots insidebox 9

4 Shots outsidebox 2

1 Corner Kicks 2

1 Offsides 0

9 Fouls 14

2 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 0

4 Goalkeeper Saves 2

666 Total passes 348

604 Passes accurate 279

12 Free Kicks 9

Real Madrid

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
25 Yan Diomande M	9.0	90'	1	1	4	58 (51%)	2
15 Arda Güler M	8.2	78'	1	–	1	64 (60%)	2
10 Kylian Mbappé F	8.2	85'	2	–	5	32 (25%)	–
14 Aurélien Tchouaméni M	7.7	90'	–	1	–	65 (60%)	4
5 Jude Bellingham M	7.7	70'	–	1	–	46 (41%)	2
1 Thibaut Courtois G	7.5	90'	–	–	–	38 (36%)	–
8 Federico Valverde D	7.3	85'	–	–	1	40 (36%)	3
16 Ibrahima Konaté D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	66 (62%)	3
20 Bernardo Silva M	7.0	20'	–	–	–	22 (20%)	–
4 Dean Huijsen D	6.8	90'	–	–	–	91 (88%)	1
3 Éder Militão D	6.6	5'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	–
6 Eduardo Camavinga M	6.5	12'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	–
19 Carlos Espí F	6.5	5'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
21 Brahim Díaz M	6.4	21'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	–
9 Endrick M	6.2	69'	–	–	3	17 (11%)	–
17 Marc Cucurella D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	67 (57%)	1

Sevilla

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
14 Manu Bueno M	6.9	34'	1	–	2	16 (14%)	1
21 Chidera Ejuke F	6.7	44'	–	–	1	14 (12%)	–
19 Lucas Stassin F	6.6	34'	–	1	–	10 (9%)	–
17 Gabriel Suazo D	6.4	90'	–	–	–	26 (21%)	5
9 Robbie Ure F	6.3	56'	–	–	1	3 (3%)	–
24 Youssouf Fofana M	6.3	90'	–	–	2	37 (31%)	2
7 Alfon González F	6.3	17'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
10 Peque Fernández M	6.2	56'	–	–	–	22 (19%)	1
6 Lucien Agoumé M	6.1	90'	–	–	1	46 (35%)	4
5 Andres Castrin D	6.0	90'	–	–	–	41 (37%)	–
11 Rubén Vargas M	5.9	46'	–	–	1	15 (13%)	–
4 Kike Salas D	5.9	90'	–	–	1	38 (32%)	2
22 José Ángel Carmona D	5.8	18'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	1
1 Odysseas Vlachodimos G	5.7	90'	–	–	–	22 (12%)	–
20 Félix Correia M	5.4	73'	–	–	1	22 (16%)	–
2 Juan Iglesias D	4.8	72'	–	–	1	22 (14%)	3

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Confidence High (75%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio

Real Madrid vince o pareggia

Most likely score

Both teams to score

Over 2.5 goals

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Real Madrid

WWWWW

Sevilla

DLWWL

Last 3 meetings Real Madrid · 3W 0D 0L

Match summary

Real Madrid will face Sevilla in an intriguing La Liga clash on October 18, 2026. Madrid enters this match with strong offensive metrics, having averaged 2.3 goals per game this season, supported by an impressive passing accuracy of 88%. Sevilla, on the other hand, has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game and possessing a lower ball retention rate at 75%. A key battle will be in midfield, where Madrid's ability to control possession could dictate the game's tempo. Both teams will be looking to secure vital points in their pursuit of European qualification.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

75%

45%

Draw

17%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Real Madrid

Kylian Mbappé 12 gls

J. Bellingham 4 gls

Y. Diomande 3 gls

Sevilla

No scorer data.

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Real Madrid vs Sevilla

3 Real Madrid Wins

0 Draws

0 Sevilla Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
17 May 2026	Sevilla	0 - 1	Real Madrid
20 Dec 2025	Real Madrid	2 - 0	Sevilla
18 May 2025	Sevilla	0 - 2	Real Madrid

Vedi tutti i 10 incontri — Premium

Real Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Nov	A Valencia	W	0 - 3
04 Nov	A AEK Athens FC	W	2 - 3
01 Nov	A Racing Santander	W	0 - 3
25 Oct	A Barcelona	W	1 - 2
21 Oct	H RB Leipzig	W	4 - 1

Sevilla — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Nov	H Alaves	D	0 - 0
01 Nov	A Getafe	L	3 - 1
29 Oct	A Hortaleza	W	0 - 3
26 Oct	H Osasuna	W	2 - 0
18 Oct	A Real Madrid	L	4 - 1

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	11	10	0	1	46	12	+34	30
2	Real Madrid	12	10	0	2	31	10	+21	30
3	Atletico Madrid	11	9	1	1	22	8	+14	28
4	Real Betis	11	7	2	2	18	15	+3	23
5	Real Sociedad	11	6	1	4	20	20	0	19
6	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	17	19	-2	18
7	Athletic Club	11	4	4	3	15	11	+4	16
8	Deportivo La Coruna	12	3	6	3	15	14	+1	15
9	Racing Santander	12	4	2	6	17	30	-13	14
10	Alaves	12	3	4	5	15	17	-2	13
11	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	15	15	0	12
12	Celta Vigo	11	2	6	3	10	10	0	12
13	Espanyol	12	3	3	6	13	14	-1	12
14	Rayo Vallecano	10	3	3	4	15	20	-5	12
15	Getafe	11	3	3	5	8	16	-8	12
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	12	23	-11	12
17	Elche	11	2	4	5	14	18	-4	10
18	Levante	11	2	4	5	16	21	-5	10
19	Valencia	12	2	3	7	8	20	-12	9
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	9	23	-14	5

Sevilla

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Luis García

1 Vlachodimos

17 Suazo

4 Salas

5 Castrín

2 Iglesias

24 Fofana

6 Agoumé

20 Correia

10 Fernández

11 Vargas

9 Ure

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	O. Vlachodimos	G
2	Juan Iglesias	D
5	Andrés Castrín	D
4	Kike Salas	D
17	G. Suazo	D
6	L. Agoumé	M
24	Y. Fofana	M
11	R. Vargas	M
10	Peque Fernández	M
20	Félix Correia	M
9	R. Ure	F

Substitutes

15	Fábio Cardoso	D
14	Manu Bueno	M
22	José Ángel Carmona	D
3	Julio Díaz del Romo	D
21	C. Ejuke	F
13	Fran González	G
7	Alfon González	F
33	Rafael Romero	G
12	A. Sangante	D
19	L. Stassin	F
29	Jesús Cruz	M
27	N. Guillen	M

Real Madrid

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: José Mourinho

1 Courtois

17 Cucurella

4 Huijsen

16 Konaté

8 Valverde

14 Tchouaméni

15 Güler

25 Diomande

5 Bellingham

9 Endrick

10 Mbappé

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	T. Courtois	G
8	F. Valverde	D
16	I. Konaté	D
4	D. Huijsen	D
17	Marc Cucurella	D
15	A. Güler	M
14	A. Tchouaméni	M
9	Endrick	M
5	J. Bellingham	M
25	Y. Diomande	M
10	Kylian Mbappé	F

Substitutes

12	T. Alexander-Arnold	D
6	E. Camavinga	M
24	D. Dumfries	D
19	Carlos Espí	F
18	Álvaro Fernández	D
13	A. Lunin	G
3	Éder Militão	D
20	Bernardo Silva	M
31	Javier Navarro	G
27	Thiago Pitarch	M
22	A. Rüdiger	D
21	Brahim Díaz	M